Keys to the Presidency

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Author Message   Sylad Citizen Username: Sylad Post Number: 257 Registered: 6-2002 Posted on Wednesday, February 18, 2004 - 7:20 pm:        The 13 Keys to the Presidency.... Allan J. Lichtman is Professor of History and Chair of the Department of History at American University http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/073910179X/ref=ase_absolutsearch05/10 2-3751873-6376168 Here are the thirteen keys to the presidency, presented in question form. Each must answered ''yes'' or ''no.'' There are 2 answers: first each question from the perspective if it would favor the election of the candidate of the party in power. Next, answer the same question in parenthesis according to current conditions and the name of the candidate who benefits from it. 1. Did the incumbent party gain at least 51 percent of the vote cast in the previous election? NO (KERRY) 2. Was there a serious contest for the nomination of the incumbent party candidate? NO (BUSH) 3. Was there major third party activity during the election year? NO (BUSH) 4. Is the incumbent party candidate the sitting president? YES (BUSH) 5. Was the yearly mean per-capita rate of growth in real Gross National Product during the incumbent administration equal to or greater than the mean rate of the previous eight years, and equal to or greater than 1 percent? NO (KERRY) 6. Is the election year a time of recession or depression? NO (BUSH) 7. Did the incumbent president initiate major changes in national policy? Yes (BUSH) 8.Was there major social unrest during the incumbent administration? NO (BUSH) 9. Was the incumbent administration tainted by major scandal? NO (BUSH) 10. Did the incumbent party suffer a major setback in foreign or military policy? NO (BUSH) 11. Did it achieve a major success in foreign or military policy? YES (BUSH) 12. Is the incumbent party candidate charismatic or a national hero? NO (KERRY) 13. Is the challenging party candidate charismatic or a national hero? NO (BUSH) 10 BUSH; 3 KERRY LANDSLIDE You can argue that # 9, #10 & #13 could switch to Kerry, Even so it would go still mean victory for President Bush.   Duncan Citizen Username: Duncanrogers Post Number: 1543 Registered: 12-2001 Posted on Wednesday, February 18, 2004 - 7:50 pm:        Dre-ee-ee-ee-eem Dream dream dream dream dre-ee-ee-ee-eem Alls Well That Ends Well. Playing through March 7. info at http://www.hometown.aol.com/theatr1010/   themp Citizen Username: Themp Post Number: 526 Registered: 12-2001 Posted on Wednesday, February 18, 2004 - 9:53 pm:        Time for a jumping-jacks-in-a-clownsuit bet.   argon_smythe Citizen Username: Argon_smythe Post Number: 115 Registered: 5-2001 Posted on Friday, February 20, 2004 - 5:40 pm:        There's already a guy doing jumping jacks in a clownsuit, and his name is Perfesser Lickedman. Sheesh somebody give me a tenure, I could turn out dribble like this in my sleep.