| Author |
Message |
    
Foj
Citizen
Username: Foger
Post Number: 1631
Registered: 9-2004
| | Posted on Monday, July 10, 2006 - 10:57 pm: | 
|
SO ordered by a judge recently. Looks like TOM is running.ANd cant be replaced by another "R" under TX law.
I think we can chaulk up that district to the DEMS. |
Spinal Tap
Citizen
Username: Spinaltap11
Post Number: 31
Registered: 5-2006
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 11, 2006 - 7:56 am: |
|
Since when did election rules become so sacrosanct to Democrats in NJ? For Democrats in this state to laud the DeLay decision in light of what happened here in 2002 with Lautenberg is quite hypocritical. |
Strawberry
Supporter
Username: Strawberry
Post Number: 7524
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 11, 2006 - 8:09 am: |
|
very, very true. |
Southerner
Citizen
Username: Southerner
Post Number: 1237
Registered: 2-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 11, 2006 - 9:57 am: |
|
And Foj if he is on the ballot why do you think he won't win? My political spiddy sense is tingling. I think DeLay will pull what Gore is planning on doing in '08. Jumping into the race towards the end so you won't have that year long drumbeat of negativism. And if what I'm hearing is that the Democratic candidate isn't even from that District then DeLay already has a built in cause. I'm not saying he will win, but I see a Rovesque move being planned and we all know these never help the Democrats. |
dave23
Citizen
Username: Dave23
Post Number: 1850
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 11, 2006 - 10:30 am: |
|
DeLay brings home the bacon. Don't assume the D's will take the seat. |
tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 5250
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 11, 2006 - 10:49 am: |
|
It would be foolish to think it's a lock; but liberals are already all over that point. Also, he's under indictment so lots of nasty things can happen to him along the way that aren't under Roveian control. |
Southerner
Citizen
Username: Southerner
Post Number: 1242
Registered: 2-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 11, 2006 - 6:36 pm: |
|
tom,
What can happen to him. He's already been indicted. The next step is a plea or a trial. There is no boogey man awaiting for DeLay. Of course if he is found guilty then he can't be a Congressman, but will all this happen before November? It's going to be a fun political season. |
Foj
Citizen
Username: Foger
Post Number: 1644
Registered: 9-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 11, 2006 - 10:19 pm: |
|
Guys, the TX RNC sued to get Delay off the ballot and lost. The TX RNC had another candidate to replace Delay. & Delay no longer lives in Texas. Delay has ... maybe 200k left, according to recent FEC filings, which Delay stated he would use for his defense.
200k and about a 20% approval rating is not much of a campaign. I'd call it TOKEN. |
tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 5252
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, July 11, 2006 - 10:24 pm: |
|
You don't think that during the process of discovery, something might get discovered? The prosecution certainly isn't resting these next few months. They're interviewing witnesses and continuing to dig. Ditto the defense. Anything can happen. |
Southerner
Citizen
Username: Southerner
Post Number: 1248
Registered: 2-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 12, 2006 - 6:13 pm: |
|
tom,
The prosecution digging isn't discovery. It is investigating. And if they come up with more then they will simply indict with additional charges. Haven't you guys learned anything from the Fitz boondoggle? As for Foj, you make good points about DeLay and his potential race. However, the guy has all the name recognition he could want so he doesn't have to buy this. And if the Dem candidate isn't even from the district then DeLay will use the outsider card. And besides, remember, people from Texas are quite unintelligent I have come to learn on this board so don't expect them to vote like you nice libs want them to. |
tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 5256
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 12, 2006 - 9:16 pm: |
|
Quote:And if they come up with more then they will simply indict with additional charges.
Which is my point exactly. He's proven to be susceptible to bad publicity, which is why he withdrew in the first place (his poll numbers were tanking). Any more bad revelations will only put him deeper in the hole. |
Southerner
Citizen
Username: Southerner
Post Number: 1256
Registered: 2-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, July 13, 2006 - 10:52 am: |
|
I disagree. At some point, he will be appear to be a victim of a zealous prosecutor, especially if the Dems are fronting a less than stellar candidate. And he has been out of the limelight for several months and could reappear at the 11th hour.
Now keep in mind, I could care less if DeLay runs and wins or loses. I was actually looking forward to him being a lobbyist and be able to work for the conservative cause without the spotlight and Congressional restrictions (of course, he isn't bothered by restrictions).
I seriously doubt he will win if he runs, but I wouldn't be shocked either. They guy is smooth and his district must like him since he kept winning. Part of me would also like to see what kind of names his electorate would be called on MOL if he were to run and win again. |
MichaelaM
Citizen
Username: Mayquene
Post Number: 198
Registered: 1-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, July 13, 2006 - 1:26 pm: |
|
If DeLay were to jump back in the race last minute it might hurt Republicans on a national level. Having Tom DeLay as a visible political force on the national level is dangerous for them right now. It's better for them to lose that one seat than further endanger a dozen or so vulnerable Republican candidates.
Also, I know nothing about Texas election law, but I wonder if he would be allowed to take the seat if he wins. Is there a rule that one must have been a resident of the district for X time before an election to take that House seat? |
tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 5261
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, July 13, 2006 - 2:42 pm: |
|
well it's all too hypothetical. It depends on just what the revelations are, their severity and credibility. If Cayman Island bank accounts with millions of dollars of deposits show up in his name, it could be quite bad. More of the same that he's been charged with already might start to look like piling on. Something new could be either devastating, or make him look a little better to his rich good-ole-boy constituency.
But MichaelaM has a good point, the GOP doesn't need this kind of lightning rod for close races in more moderate districts. |
Southerner
Citizen
Username: Southerner
Post Number: 1262
Registered: 2-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, July 13, 2006 - 6:31 pm: |
|
I kind of agree with with the premise of the lightning rod, but I also think the Dems are wishing and hoping a little too hard. This is going to be a dogfight on a national level with the possibility of DeLay being a minor player. I think we are in for the dirtiest of dirty campaigns with mud a-flowing. And of course, this election is local by nature so I don't see DeLay being as big a factor throughout the country as you guys think. The key for a Democratic victory (which in my book is winning either chamber, not just picking up seats) is voter turnout. And fortunately for my side, Dean and the crew haven't done anything to ignite any passion. They have brow beaten Bush and this Admin to death for so long that the electorate is numb and I see voter turnout not being that great. And low voter turnout is good for incumbency. |
anon
Supporter
Username: Anon
Post Number: 2848
Registered: 6-2002
| | Posted on Thursday, July 13, 2006 - 9:00 pm: |
|
FWIW I agree with the Lautenberg analogy. The liberal Dems of NJ were entitled to be represented by a liberal Dem, Lautenberg. The conservative Republicans of DeLay's district have the right to be represented by a person who refelects their views and if DeLay does not want to run the Texas State GOP should have the right to name a replacement. |
Southerner
Citizen
Username: Southerner
Post Number: 1267
Registered: 2-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, July 13, 2006 - 10:40 pm: |
|
anon,
I agree. But even if the Dem wins, a Texas Dem is far to the right of what you New Jersey folks see as a Dem. My district Rep, whom I'll be voting for is a Democrat, but he's the kind you guys wouldn't like. Then again, he wins, which is unique for a northeast Dem. Either way, I have no doubt a conservative will come out of that district whether he has a R or D by his name. I'd prefer an R but I'll leave it up to the voters. |
Foj
Citizen
Username: Foger
Post Number: 1649
Registered: 9-2004
| | Posted on Friday, July 14, 2006 - 2:11 pm: |
|
Lets backtrack:
2003 – Led by Tom DeLay, Texas redraws its congressional district boundaries for the 2nd time in a decade. Gerrymandered districts abound. (Democrats file suit - see post script)
November, 2004 – Election Day. Texas’ congressional delegation is now 21 Republicans and 11 Democrats. 4 term incumbent Nick Lampson loses his seat to a Libertarian posing as a Republican who under spent Lampson by $709,683.00 in his campaign. Lampson moves to CD-22.
May 4, 2005 – (Happy Birthday, Sara) Nick Lampson declares his candidacy in CD-22 opposing the architect of his loss at the polls in 2004.
Sept 28, 2005 – Grand Jury hands down indictments saying that Tom DeLay conspired to violate Texas election laws by money laundering, to provide corporate PAC money to fund individual campaigns (see 2002 ) in violation of Texas state election law. Conspiracy indictments are eventually withdrawn.
Sept 29, 2005 – DeLay “temporarily” steps down as Majority Whip
October 19, 2005 – A warrant for Tom DeLay’s arrest is issued. Bail is set at $10k. DeLay flies out on an Abramoff jet for booking, fingerprinting and the famous mug shot.
January 7, 2006 – DeLay permanently steps down from his leadership position in the House at the urging of Charlie Bass and Jeff Flake.
January 8, 2006 – Tony Rudy, a DeLay aide, is investigated for his role in the Abramoff scandals.
“Early January” 2006 – DeLay staffer calls FB GOP chairman Eric Thode and tells him that DeLay was “contemplating the possibilities” with regard to his 2006 congressional race, and the effect that his indictment will have on giving him “less than a solid showing” in the primary.
March 7, 2006 – DeLay wins Republican primary, outpolling his nearest competitor by 2:1. The 62% win, however, cast a pall on the campaign: the “less than a solid showing” became a reality. Nick Lampson also wins in the primary, although he was running unopposed (Democrats agree on something, tide begins to turn).
April 3, 2006 – DeLay tells Chris Matthews that he will not seek re-election. Quoted in Time Magazine, DeLay used these words: "It was obvious to me that the 22nd District deserved more than an election that was turning into a referendum on me rather than what was important to the district”
April 6, 2006 – Nick Lampson holds a press conference on the steps of Sugar Land City Hall, to call for a special election on May 13 to replace Tom Delay (an election that would have Lampson’s name on the ballot). Press conference is interrupted by thugs and hacks from DeLay’s fan club. 69-year old Democratic supporter is assaulted by a 55 year old Republican thug (and Fort Bend County Grand Jury foreman) twice her size.
April 7, 2006 – Governor Rick Perry says that a special election will not be held to replace DeLay, as he has not formally resigned from his office. Governor’s office issues a “White Paper” (also known as a “Y’all Messed This One Up, Tom Paper”) spelling out the difference between withdrawl from a race (candidate’s name is dropped from the ballot) and being declared ineligible to serve (a 4 member committee in CD-22 nominates someone else to oppose Nick Lampson). If no one is selected by the 70th day before election day, the YMTOUT Paper holds, the State GOP Election committee gets to choose someone. Local Republicans begin to study each other suspiciously.
April 7 to April 18, 2006 – Local Republicans throw hats (one of them hot pink) into the ring. In alphabetical order they are: Paul Bettencourt, Robert Eckels, Shelly Sekula-Gibbs, Charlie Howard, Mike Jackson, Robert Talton and David Wallace (and who knows, maybe someone else).
April 19, 2006 – Robert Eckels checks out saying that he could win but wants to “live in the same zip code” as his daughter. A collective sigh of relief is heard amongst his competitors.
April 26, 2006 – GOP Chairman Gillen says he wants to fill 38 vacant precinct chairs who are “willing, active participants for the office, nothing more or less”. It is pointed out by FortBendNow that a “voting bloc" in the Fort Bend part of CD22 could easily be organized, as the precinct chairs will nominate one person to serve on the CD22 Gang of Four who will nominate a congressional candidate.
May 5, 2006 – County Commissioner Andy Meyers finds a hat to throw, and it lands in the ring in the exact same spot that Robert Eckels' was placed, and then retrieved. Andy says that his name is the only one with “district-wide recognition” since Eckels withdrew. Andy who?
May 6, 2006 – Harris County holds a “candidates forum”. Wallace and Campbell miss the boat because they were not properly networking and were unaware of the forum, but after belated protests both are allowed in. Campbell shows, but Wallace begs off, having a “long-standing prior committment”.
May 11, 2006 – Ton DeLay tells Congress he will resign on June 9th, and reveals that he intends to become a legal resident of Virginia rendering him “ineligible to serve in Texas Congressional District 22”. Now has his story straight.
May, 2006 – Eric Thode mails out postcards to 18,000 households known to be Republican (hah, I got one, too), to get voter input on who should be nominated to run in the CD-22 race. (Author’s note: I sent mine in – one of the 5 who voted for Lampson).
May 19, 2006 – CD-22 Precinct Chairs enter a motion “that the results of the survey (mentioned above) the party sent out be shredded.” Apparently the survey did not include all of the candidates, and apparently David Wallace won, beating out the nearest competitor, Charlie Howard, by a greater than 2:1 margin.
May 20, 2006 – GOP releases survey results. Votes for Nick Lampson are equal to those cast for BOTH Tom and Christine DeLay. . . together. Survey is labeled as inconclusive because some of the candidates were not listed in the survey.
May 29, 2006 - Sugar Land celebrates Memorial Day with a keynote speech by quitter Tom Delay. Also present were several GOP CD-22 candidate wanna-bes, notably Shelly Sekula-Gibbs (wait, what's a Houston councilman at large doing at a Sugar Land event?) dressed to kill in a solid hot pink ensemble.
June 8, 2006 – Tina Berkiser determines that Tom DeLay is officially ineligible to run for the CD-22 seat. The detemination came from an official letter from DeLay that contained copies of documents proving that DeLay was a legal resident of the state of Virginia. It is rumored that a copy of his valid Virginia fishing license was among those presented.
June 8, 2006 – Democrats file suit in Travis County to keep Tom DeLay’s name as the Republican nominee on the November ballot. A temporary restraining order is granted by Judge Darlene Byrne preventing GOP officials from taking any measures to replace Tom DeLay on the ballot. If Republicans aren’t a bunch of “angry white men” before, they sure are now.
June 9, 2006 - Tom resigns. Yawn.
June 16, 2006 – Republicans, arguing that the suit filed against Berkiser relies on federal constitutional issues, successfully move the suit to federal district court, that of Republican U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks or as we are wont to call him “Rhymin’ Sam”. The suit actually addresses both Texas Election Code and the U.S. Constitution which reads that a congressman must be at least 25 years of age, a citizen/resident of the US for 7 years, and reside in the state he represents on election day. Oops. Tom, Tom, Tom, didn’t you ever read it?
From here:
http://halfempth.blogspot.com/2006/07/texas-cd-22-fulfillment-of-ancient.html |
Southerner
Citizen
Username: Southerner
Post Number: 1274
Registered: 2-2004
| | Posted on Friday, July 14, 2006 - 3:52 pm: |
|
Interesting post Foj. I still believe if DeLay's name is legally on the ballot ala Sparks that he will get more votes than the Dem. Then it will be very interesting what the "Gore crew" has to say when they try to keep him from office. This is fun. |
Michaela
Citizen
Username: Mayquene
Post Number: 206
Registered: 1-2004
| | Posted on Friday, July 14, 2006 - 4:49 pm: |
|
As of late 2005, DeLay was trailing an unnamed Democratic nominee in a poll of the district. See http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/12/05/delay.poll/
An excerpt:
Poll: DeLay faces political woes at home
Criminal charges against Texas lawmaker appear to take a toll
Monday, December 5, 2005; Posted: 11:33 p.m. EST (04:33 GMT)
(CNN) -- A poll released Monday evening suggests the criminal charges against Rep. Tom DeLay have taken a toll on his political support back home in his solidly Republican House district.
Close to half of the registered voters in a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll said they would be likely to vote for an unnamed Democratic opponent next year. (Poll results)
Conducted by telephone Thursday through Sunday, the poll was released hours after a judge threw out one of the charges against DeLay. (Full story)
The poll also found that 55 percent of the registered voters in Texas' 22nd Congressional District believe the charges against the former House majority leader are definitely or probably true.
Respondents were evenly split on the question of whether the prosecution is politically motivated, as DeLay has charged.
When registered voters were asked for their opinion of DeLay, 52 percent said it was unfavorable, while 37 percent said they viewed him favorably.
Despite negative headlines from a string of ethics complaints, DeLay in 2004 won 55 percent of the vote to Democrat Richard Morrison's 41 percent in the 22nd District, which includes parts of four suburban counties south of Houston. President Bush also easily carried all four counties.
But when 713 registered voters in the new poll were asked whether they were likely to choose DeLay or a Democrat in the 2006 midterm election, 49 percent said they would pick the Democrat; 36 percent said they would likely support DeLay, who has represented the district since 1984.
The sampling error for the poll was plus or minus 4 percentage points. |
tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 5268
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Friday, July 14, 2006 - 5:38 pm: |
|
DeLay's seat isn't as reliably Republican as it was last time he was elected. As part of the redistricting he forced through the Texas Legislature, he changed his district to encompass more Democrats. By doing so, he was able to make one or more neighboring districts more reliably Republican. Operating under the theory that he had enough support to cover the new demographic, he hadn't counted on his scandal undoing him. Ironic, because with the old district lines he would have had more of a chance. |
Foj
Citizen
Username: Foger
Post Number: 1652
Registered: 9-2004
| | Posted on Saturday, July 15, 2006 - 1:11 am: |
|
Lampson whips the Bugman:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/2006/01/tx22_lampson_le.php |
|
Closed: New threads not accepted on this page