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themp
Supporter
Username: Themp
Post Number: 3157
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 6, 2006 - 10:04 pm: | 
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Why did Hezoballah think that Israel would, or even could consider releasing a guy who killed a 4 year old girl with the butt of a rifle?
Option one: Iran looked at the US in Iraq, and said "gee, these superpowers are weak in the face of an occupation scenario. let's draw Israel into lebenon, and see how much will they have. Maybe when oil hits record highs we'll see spectacular weekening in the decadent West. Let's have a general war."
Option two: Israel said "those dopes are at it again. Lets give them hell. When the world calls for a ceasefire, we'll get a multinational force in Lebanon, and Hezbollah will be pushed back for several years from right on our border."
Option three: Israel said "let's break popular support for Hezbollah once and for all." Oops. That worked for week one.
Also - from the US side, is anyone saying "ok, if we win a general, WWIII type war in the Middle East, great, if we lose, it will be even better because it will mean the Apocalypse has begun" ?
What the hell is happening?
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Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 1328
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Sunday, August 6, 2006 - 10:31 pm: |
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Answers for Themp-
Iran directed Hezbollah's actions in order to remove international pressure off of Iran to prevent it's development of nukes, and decrease Israeli focus on Hamas in Gaza up to that point. Iran could show the world again it's troublemaking potential, and the strength of it's surrogate, Hezbollah which could launch attacks in the Middle East and the rest of the world if serious action was taken against Iran.
By forcing Israel to have to engage in negotiations for the release of it's soldiers on two fronts, Hezbollah could gain the benefit of great prestige in the arab world by securing the release of arab prisoners held by Israelis, and present the Israelis as "paper tigers" unable to stand up to the insurgent guerillas of Hezbollah.
Major miscalculation because Israel had a Prime Minister and Defense Minister with no major Israeli millitary experience, and the Israeli Chief of Staff was the fomer head of the Israeli airforce who believed you could defeat Hezbollah by airpower alone. Hence the PM decided you had to restore Israel's deterrent capabilities in dealing with the arab world.
Presently Israel is winning the conflict, despite Haifa being bombed. Hezbollah only has about 10 launchers left reportedly. Syria will not fight Israel directly and is only rattling its sabers in trying to get some sort of fig leaf for Hezbollah to claim it accomplished something in starting this mess ( "return" of Shaba Farms to Lebanon?) Iranians too. A lot of their capital expenditure in Hezbollah over the past six years has " gone up in smoke" over the past weeks. |
tjohn
Supporter
Username: Tjohn
Post Number: 4628
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 6, 2006 - 10:45 pm: |
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It could well have been a mistake on Hezbollah's part. Given the past practice of trading prisoners, I can easily believe that Hezbollah thought it could trade prisoners yet again.
One major miscalculation seems to be a "Prime Minister and Defense Minister with no major Israeli millitary experience, and the Israeli Chief of Staff was the fomer head of the Israeli airforce who believed you could defeat Hezbollah by airpower alone". This miscalculation has cost Israel dearly in the international political arena. It would have been better to launch a substantial ground offensive in the beginning.
"Hezbollah only has about 10 launchers left reportedly." That is most certainly wishful thinking. The 122 mm rocket is not much more than a glorified bottle rocket with a deadly HE payload and doesn't require much of a launcher. Now, it could be that the launchers for the larger rockets in Hezbollah's inventory have been destroyed, but certainly not the smaller ones. It isn't as though Hezbollah is running around with a bunch of the trucks with 40 or 80 rocket tubes.
"Presently Israel is winning the conflict, " This is also wishful thinking or, at best, a point of view. What the Arab world sees is that the IDF has advanced only four miles in three weeks and has dismantled the civilian infrastructure of a small country. In Arab eyes, Hezbollah has delivered the best performance against the IDF of any Arab army ever.
In terms of the investment in weaponry, ten thousand mostly 122 mm rockets are, unfortunately, not particularly expensive.
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kathleen
Citizen
Username: Symbolic
Post Number: 635
Registered: 3-2005
| | Posted on Sunday, August 6, 2006 - 10:47 pm: |
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Could it possibly be because the current Israeli government doesn't always come across as being primarily concerned with the lives of 4 year olds, bur rather their own poliitcal fannies?
Fvf writes: "Presently Israel is winning the conflict ... "
The Kool-Aid pitcher certainly lasts longer the fewer the number of people who drink out of it. |
Dave
Supporter
Username: Dave
Post Number: 10341
Registered: 4-1997
| | Posted on Sunday, August 6, 2006 - 10:50 pm: |
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1) Winning? Not sure. These wars used to last days for Israel with its superior military. This is taking weeks and Israel has shown little means of stopping the missiles.
2) "Iran made them do it." Hezbollah is a native Lebanese group. Why would they put their lives on the line for another nation? Makes little sense unless you're naive enough to think there's an evil mastermind behind all conflicts controlling all parties. Sorry, nothing is even close to that organized in the Middle East. |
themp
Supporter
Username: Themp
Post Number: 3158
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 6, 2006 - 11:02 pm: |
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Will Iran "do something"? |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 1330
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Sunday, August 6, 2006 - 11:30 pm: |
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tjohn-
I appreciate that your posts always dovetail nicely with your sense that Israel is a "colonizer" that will disappear, but respectfully, your millitary knowledge and analysis is not going to get you a job at the War College. 
kathleen-
One can always count on you to show your anti-Israel fervor consistency, thread after thread. I have however been disappointed not to have yet read the " some of my best friends are Jewish" qualifier, which would go ever so nicely with your strategic attack on poor Mel Gibson's single drunk anti-semitic outburst in the other thread. Balance now! 
Dave-
Hezbollah has had six years to build up an impressive millitary infrastucture far beyond that of a traditional terrorist group, like say Hamas. 12,000 missles is no small thing. The war that is going on right now is pretty much a cutting edge war for how modern armies will approach war with a shifting terrorist enemy that uses mobile missles. Hezbollah is actually an offshoot of the Iranian variant and is fully funded by Iran. They could not run their social institutions that garner them support among the sh'ia without Iranian funding. They are very beholdent. The escalation of the conflict and use of longer-ranged missles reflects Iranian approval. They are not independent. |
Dave
Supporter
Username: Dave
Post Number: 10345
Registered: 4-1997
| | Posted on Sunday, August 6, 2006 - 11:45 pm: |
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Fully funded by Iran? How do you know that? |
kathleen
Citizen
Username: Symbolic
Post Number: 639
Registered: 3-2005
| | Posted on Sunday, August 6, 2006 - 11:56 pm: |
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Fvf:
Which post from the Gibson thread are you objecting to? Re-post it here so everyone can see it.
In the Gibson thread, you claimed what I wrote in the Demonizing Islam thread was "proof" of something. When I asked you to re-post it so others could see it for themselves, you scurried away to another thread to make another scurrilous accusation.
It's McCarthyism. You've done the same thing to tjohn and Nohero. I'm not intimidated. Put up the evidence from the Gibson thread. Put up what I wrote in the Demonizing Islam thread. Go ahead an re-post what I wrote if you think it exposes me as an anti-Semite. Let everybody see how what you are talking about and how your mind works.
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themp
Supporter
Username: Themp
Post Number: 3161
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Monday, August 7, 2006 - 12:00 am: |
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Yeah, it's cheap and dumb. It is unfortunate that you are subjected to that attack. I got some of that myself from one of the more notorious but now less active posters. Ignore it and don't try to justify yourself. |
tjohn
Supporter
Username: Tjohn
Post Number: 4629
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Monday, August 7, 2006 - 6:18 am: |
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FvF,
The only thing that would be of military interest in the current conflict would be if Israel failed to win.
But since most wars these days are as much or more political than they are military, the fact that Hezbollah is, in the eyes of the world, proving to be a hard nut to crack is of enormous importance. Now it could well be that the IDF is going slowly to spare IDF lives. I could easily believe that, but the perception is that Hezbollah is giving a very good account of itself.
This is important since part of the deterrence value of the IDF is the guarantee that they can swiftly defeat all comers quickly and convincingly. Now, however, a reasonable Arab might conclude that with some decent weapons, training and motivation, they can make military operations for Israel very costly. |
Hoops
Citizen
Username: Hoops
Post Number: 1795
Registered: 10-2004
| | Posted on Monday, August 7, 2006 - 9:05 am: |
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Quote:Iran directed Hezbollah's actions in order to remove international pressure off of Iran to prevent it's development of nukes, and decrease Israeli focus on Hamas in Gaza up to that point
There may be hint of truth in here fvf, but not to the point of Iran directing some grand middle eastern master plan. More likely Iranian agents encouraged Hezbollah to support Hamas. There was not likely prediction that Israel would begin a strategic counter attack that will effectively neutralize Hezbollah for years.
I dont buy the Iranian nuclear argument as one of life or death for America or Israel. No one wins a nuclear war and the Iranians are not a stupid people. I dont believe it is good for Iran to have a bomb but I likewise dont think that it is going to make any difference in how changes will occur in the middle east in the future.
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tjohn
Supporter
Username: Tjohn
Post Number: 4633
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Monday, August 7, 2006 - 9:08 am: |
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Hoops,
With regard to Iran and nuclear war, history teaches us that sometimes madmen do gain control of states and don't act rationally. I don't know if Ahmedinejad would be willing to sacrifice Iran in order to nuke Israel, but he certainly talks the talk. |
Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 12332
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Monday, August 7, 2006 - 9:23 am: |
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After Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon they allegedly rounded up "hundreds" of Palestinian militants and dropped them off in Lebanon. If I was cynical I would say this was a going away present. Hezbollah, putting aside religious differences, fed and housed them and a cooperative frame of mind was established. I have read this in two or three places and while I won't mortgage the store on this information, it is interesting.
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tjohn
Supporter
Username: Tjohn
Post Number: 4634
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Monday, August 7, 2006 - 1:24 pm: |
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FvF,
I may not be landing a teaching position at the Army War College any time soon, but my observations seem to be closer to what Brig. General Kuperwasser is saying than your fantastic assertions.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060807/ts_nm/mideast_army_dc
Oh, I know. You have a contact in the Mossad who is giving you the real facts, but you can't tell us. |
Hoops
Citizen
Username: Hoops
Post Number: 1804
Registered: 10-2004
| | Posted on Monday, August 7, 2006 - 2:07 pm: |
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tjohn, is he really a madman with control of the nuclear button or is he a figure head speaking for the mullahs?
I would prefer to see Iran as a non nuclear state but I dont see how we can stop them from gaining a nuclear weapon, short of full fledged war. Seems to me that there are quite a few states out there that already have nukes that are run by rulers whose main assets are cruelty and lack of scruples, but that doesnt mean that they are willing to be the first to use nukes. |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 1337
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Monday, August 7, 2006 - 3:24 pm: |
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So many responses, so little time. 
kathleen- You need to read closely. IMHO I believed your strategic Gibson thread posts showcased how relatively un-bigoted and un-biased you are, which of course, IMHO nicely advanced and balanced your, IMHO, anti-Israel postings. Certainly jewish friends would be the proverbial icing on the cake as you proceed to find more articles to trash Israel. Is there an agenda? Hmmm?
In an amusing sort of way it kind of reminds me of the arab students who wanted to insure me that they were only against Zionists and not Jews. Why, they would even permit Jews to live under their terms in the muslim land of Palestine. Well, only so many, that is.
When you start holding Palestinians and the arab world to the highest possible moral and ethical standards and require them to be as un-blemished and unrealistically "humanitarian" as demand of Israel, then we can chat.
Until then you can continue to wail about claims on non-existent and made-up Mc Carthy-ism to detract from what IMHO are the anti-Israel motivations of your posts. Owning up to them seems the far simpler course to me.
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