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sbenois
Supporter
Username: Sbenois
Post Number: 15594
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 10:38 pm: | 
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The End. |
Strawberry
Supporter
Username: Strawberry
Post Number: 7736
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 10:41 pm: |
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Dave
Supporter
Username: Dave
Post Number: 10547
Registered: 4-1997
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 10:45 pm: |
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http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/4127674.html
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tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 5586
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 10:47 pm: |
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Maybe they don't really count since they're not Americans. |
Dave
Supporter
Username: Dave
Post Number: 10548
Registered: 4-1997
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 10:50 pm: |
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And if global changes don't happen here, then they aren't happening anywhere! |
tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 5588
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 10:54 pm: |
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And specific weather activity can't be used as evidence for global warming, except for when it's evidence against it. |
sbenois
Supporter
Username: Sbenois
Post Number: 15595
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 10:56 pm: |
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Extraordinarily weak response Tom.
You're not going to slide with that maybe they don't count nonsense. Last year people on these boards were screaming that the size and frequency of N.A. hurricanes during the season was directly related to global warming. I suggested that not every hurricane or hurricane season is proof of global warming.
This has nothing to do with China or the Chinese people or trying to change the subject to one where we (I) equate the relative value of the people on our planet. Nice try though.
The discussion is strictly related to understanding, from the perspective of those who argued last year, how come there haven't been more hurricanes.
Has the planet suddenly cooled off?
Please enlighten me. Thankey. |
Strawberry
Supporter
Username: Strawberry
Post Number: 7737
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 11:03 pm: |
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Perfect time to discuss Gore the liar.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/20060810/cm_usatoday/goreisntquiteasgreenashesl edtheworldtobelieve;_ylt=Am1fVH.L.JahFL_d1jKbabGs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3ODdxdHBhBHNlYwM5NjQ- |
tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 5589
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 11:16 pm: |
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Dave and I are talking global, as in "global warming." Sorry that the global evidence doesn't prove your point.
July 2006 was the hottest month ever in Britain. It was the hottest and driest July ever in Manitoba.
The first six months of 2006 were the hottest on record in the US.
Southeast England is suffering a two-year drought, the worst in history.
Much of China is suffering the worst drought in 50 years, along with record-setting high temperatures. Ditto Australia.
Temperature records in the Arctic are being shattered for the second year in a row.
And so on. Just taking North Atlantic Hurricanes as your sample is arbitrary. Why not just limit it to Miami Beach on Sundays while you're at it? Or New Jersey last week? If you find a small enough sample, you can prove anything.
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sbenois
Supporter
Username: Sbenois
Post Number: 15596
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 11:29 pm: |
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Exactly my point last year.
Thanks.
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tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 5590
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 11:38 pm: |
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Uh-uh -- last year's intense hurricane season is part of a global pattern. No one said it was, in and of itself, definitive proof; in fact, most global warming believers were careful to disclaim identifying any particular event as caused by global warming. Look at the big picture. |
Dave
Supporter
Username: Dave
Post Number: 10549
Registered: 4-1997
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 11:41 pm: |
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http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006- 08-20T183104Z_01_N18134173_RTRIDST_0_WEATHER-HURRICANES.XML |
sbenois
Supporter
Username: Sbenois
Post Number: 15597
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 11:41 pm: |
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Isn't this year's season part of a global pattern or do we discount it because you don't like the characteristics of the sample?
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sbenois
Supporter
Username: Sbenois
Post Number: 15598
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 11:44 pm: |
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Nice to see that Max recognizes that last year might have been extraordinary. |
Foj
Citizen
Username: Foger
Post Number: 1702
Registered: 9-2004
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 11:44 pm: |
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I just gotta have some fun with this...
I didnt know the North Atlantic Ocean had Hurricanes... I do know they have ice bergs... somehow I dont think you get hurricanes in the North Atlantic, it may be that the ice bergs... chased them away.
Hmm lets see... tropical storms need warmth to grow up to be Hurricanes.. right?
Hold on here... TROPICAL STORMs, happen in the TROPICS. Due to the severe lack of ice bergs in the TROPICS.
The Titanic was hit by an ICE BERG, not a TROPICAL STORM.
Just funnin...
Sebonis is right.. predictions have been updated..
http://www.allamericanpatriots.com/m-news+article+storyid-15832.html
This plays into the link that Dave provided...
In the equatorial Pacific, sea surface temperatures have been climbing. As the water heats there, more convection is firing, unlike last year when cool Pacific water temperatures created a relatively dry atmosphere. This convection robs some of the energy that would go into convection on the Atlantic side, and it also creates strong upper-level winds that blow from west to east into the Atlantic, shearing off the tops of would-be Atlantic tropical systems.
from http://www.roanoke.com/weather/wb/wb/xp-78307 |
Dave
Supporter
Username: Dave
Post Number: 10550
Registered: 4-1997
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 11:46 pm: |
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Hurricanes may have little to do with larger trends..
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/19/AR2006081900354. html |
sbenois
Supporter
Username: Sbenois
Post Number: 15599
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 11:53 pm: |
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Quote:I didnt know the North Atlantic Ocean had Hurricanes... I do know they have ice bergs... somehow I dont think you get hurricanes in the North Atlantic, it may be that the ice bergs... chased them away.
Foj,
Please don't try and have fun at my expense. The odds will rarely be in your favor.
http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/
I spent a week with NOAA meteorologists this summer. Did you?
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Dave
Supporter
Username: Dave
Post Number: 10551
Registered: 4-1997
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 11:54 pm: |
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Still, Foj gets 5 points for the iceberg part. |
sbenois
Supporter
Username: Sbenois
Post Number: 15600
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, August 20, 2006 - 11:55 pm: |
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Nohero
Supporter
Username: Nohero
Post Number: 5754
Registered: 10-1999
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 12:05 am: |
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If you spent a week with NOAA meteorologists, did you pay attention to what they said?
Quote:The strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century as the earth's climate is warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricanes will occur in the future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occur near the end of the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions. This expectation (Figure 1) is based on an anticipated enhancement of energy available to the storms due to higher tropical sea surface temperatures.
The results shown in Figure 1 are based on a simulation study carried out by Thomas R. Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). In this study hurricanes were simulated for a climate warming as projected to occur with a substantial build-up of atmospheric CO2. An increase of intensity of about one-half category on the Saffir-Simpson scale was simulated for an 80 year build-up of atmospheric CO2 at 1%/yr (compounded).
Further reading - http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html |
sbenois
Supporter
Username: Sbenois
Post Number: 15604
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 12:13 am: |
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Is it your belief that I rounded up every NOAA member and had a large meeting with them?
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Nohero
Supporter
Username: Nohero
Post Number: 5755
Registered: 10-1999
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 12:32 am: |
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Okay, you win.
You didn't spend time with the NOAA meteorologists who study global warming.
So, why were you so hard on Foj? |
Foj
Citizen
Username: Foger
Post Number: 1705
Registered: 9-2004
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 1:17 am: |
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Sebonis: I dont study hot air too much. Do you?
No.. for real.. Sebonis, did you intern for the NOAA meteorologists this summer ?
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notehead
Supporter
Username: Notehead
Post Number: 3736
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 4:52 pm: |
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Key word: TREND.
One hurricane is not a trend, and global warming's influence on a single hurricane cannot be determined with any accuracy.
One hurricane season is not a trend, at least not unless you're only concerned with that span of time. But that's not enough time to make any major conclusions about global warming, which is, at minimum, a decades-long process.
What you can say with perfect fairness, however, is that a storm such as Katrina is representative of the kind of stronger hurricane that global warming models predict. Ditto the 2005 hurricane season, the recent heat wave, storms elsewhere around the world, and on and on.
So there haven't been any massive hurricanes smashing into the East Coast yet this year. That's great, but so what? One season doesn't matter. Decades-long trends matter. |
Tom Reingold
Supporter
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 15387
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 5:02 pm: |
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Actually, tom, a few people did say that last year's season was direct evidence. So we have to consider their conclusions as shallow, at best. Which means that sbenois's taunt is just as shallow. He shows that they were wrong by making another wrong implication.
- It is not true that last year's weather proves that global warming causes bigger hurricanes. There is a larger trend that indicates the cause and effect.
- It is not true that this year's lack of hurricans shows a lack of a warming trend.
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dave23
Citizen
Username: Dave23
Post Number: 1967
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 5:05 pm: |
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While the vast majority of climatoligists agree that global warming is real and that it's man-made, there is still a lot of debate about its effect on specific weather patterns, like hurricanes.
It wasn't long ago that conservatives were discounting global warming altogether. Now that they've belatedly pulled their heads out of their asses, they are busy highlighting the uncertainty about these weather patterns as if they reflect an larger uncertainty about global warming.
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CageyD
Citizen
Username: Cageyd
Post Number: 712
Registered: 6-2003
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 7:45 pm: |
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sbenois, why do you dispute that the planet is getting warmer? Forget why it is happening, the fact remains that is the planet has been experiencing a global increase in average temperature over the last 25+ years? What advantage are you trying to gain by disputing this? |
sbenois
Supporter
Username: Sbenois
Post Number: 15605
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 8:16 pm: |
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Dearest CageyD,
Please show me where in this thread I disputed that the planet is getting warmer.
(I didn't)
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tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 5596
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 8:34 pm: |
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Then what exactly are you saying, that there haven't been any big Atlantic hurricanes this year?
OK, there hasn't been.
Anything else? |
sbenois
Supporter
Username: Sbenois
Post Number: 15606
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 8:42 pm: |
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I am saying exactly what I said last year - you can't use the frequency or size of hurricanes in a given year as proof of global warming.
Very simple.
It's nice to see that so many people agree with me now. |
Tom Reingold
Supporter
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 15404
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 8:44 pm: |
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But you chose to taunt the people with the worst reasoning. Why pay them any attention? If you want to argue, why not take one up with someone with whom you disagree and who also can argue well?
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sbenois
Supporter
Username: Sbenois
Post Number: 15607
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 8:58 pm: |
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I chose to use the same faulty logic that was so difficult to dispel here last year. If you have an issue with the "reasoning" you're looking in the wrong direction.
Anyway, on to the next topic. |
S.L.K. 2.0
Citizen
Username: Scrotisloknows
Post Number: 1883
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 9:31 pm: |
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Yup, and everyone better run out and buy a Prius like notey did. that will solve the problem.
The only thing it solves is giving notey selfish comfort that he can't be blamed for anything.
-slk |
Tom Reingold
Supporter
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 15405
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 9:40 pm: |
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I guess the problem with this medium is that you can't see the rolling eyes and the nodding heads, so you tend to think no one gets what you're saying. A few of us got it last year and agreed. We fight an uphill battle against innumeracy.
SLK, calm down. Now you're putting words in others' mouths.
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tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 5597
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Monday, August 21, 2006 - 11:01 pm: |
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Cons like SLK fight against any government intervention or national action, and then turn around and belittle individual efforts.
The net: keep burning that oil. |
notehead
Supporter
Username: Notehead
Post Number: 3738
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, August 22, 2006 - 1:02 am: |
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MBJ
Citizen
Username: Mbj
Post Number: 231
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Tuesday, August 22, 2006 - 9:37 am: |
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Keep trying, Note. Still can't top Staw's.
Any new kooky 9/11 theories lately? |
Phenixrising
Citizen
Username: Phenixrising
Post Number: 1864
Registered: 9-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, August 22, 2006 - 12:00 pm: |
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Speaking of hurricanes, our nation will never forget the response of our OWN government and one of Bush's biggest failure to the people of this nation. Next Tuesday, Aug. 29 will be one year since Katrina and parts of New Orleans STILL looks like a WARZONE.  |
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