| Author | Message | ||
     Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 12620 Registered: 5-2001 |
Over the last couple of weaks this race has been trending towards Kean. The latest Rasmussen poll taken on August 18 shows Kean leading Menendez by five points. If Kean pulls this off it will put a real hole in the Dems efforts to take back the Senate. I don't know if these polls reflect on Corzine's general unpopularity or Menendez's close association with the Hudson County political machine. | ||
| westside Citizen Username: Westside Post Number: 17 Registered: 7-2006 |
There is a rest of the story, though. "A poll by the Eagleton Institute of Politics earlier this year gave some credence to that argument. It noted that the race was a virtual dead heat, but also that when voters definitely knew the candidate was Kean Jr., Menendez had a lead of nine percentage points, 42 to 33." Kean Jr. performance in the debate was far from impressive, and he marches in lockstep with the hard right policies of a failed president. | ||
| 3ringale Citizen Username: Threeringale Post Number: 391 Registered: 1-2006 |
Kean has a chance to win because a lot of people probably think they are voting for his father and Menendez is looking more corrupt everyday. Of course, the Democrats could still pull another switcheroo and bring Three-dollar Bill Bradley out of retirement if the stench from Union City gets too strong. Cheers | ||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 12621 Registered: 5-2001 |
Westside, read the interview in today's Star Ledger.  | ||
| westside Citizen Username: Westside Post Number: 18 Registered: 7-2006 |
I read the article just now Bob, thanks! Little Tom certainly did a flip-flop on the issue of what he feels about the President and his mistakes. But his campaign website calls for more of the same in Iraq: http://www.tomkean.com/today/index.cfm?e=user.issues.overview&messageID=246 I agree with Senator McCain’s assessment that “we have made serious mistakes” in Iraq, but a timetable for withdrawal is wrong because “the violence currently constrained by our security operations around the country would rise commensurately” and possibly incite civil war; Moreover, a vote for Little Tom is a vote for the extreme right leadership of Congress. Little Tom is talking big, but he won't stand up to the President and the religious right. Will Little Tom stand up to the Conservative leadership that refuses to appropriate money to secure our ports? Menendez will. Will Little Tom stand up and demand a plan for exit from Iraq? Menendez will. Will Little Tom push for a balanced budget? Menendez will. | ||
| westside Citizen Username: Westside Post Number: 19 Registered: 7-2006 |
Actually, he does differ from the president on immigration. He is allied with radicals like Tom Tancredo and Pat Buchanan in that respect. | ||
| Foj Citizen Username: Foger Post Number: 1825 Registered: 9-2004 |
Yawn, Bob will win by 10-15. Yawn. | ||
| westside Citizen Username: Westside Post Number: 20 Registered: 7-2006 |
I remember Bush in 2004 having a couple of polls in NJ where he was ahead. Forrester got pretty close also. But you're right Foj, Little Tom will likely lose in the end. | ||
| anon Supporter Username: Anon Post Number: 3069 Registered: 6-2002 |
Junior's attack on Bush is either absolutely brilliant or absolutely stupid. If I have to bet I will bet the latter. I can just see some Republican (perhaps secretly instigated by someone in the Menendez campaign) saying that Junior should step down and let a real Republican run. The GOP has been very successfull in elections by playing to their base. Here's the GOP candidate alienating his base. Menendez should run a commercial saying that if Junior believes what he says he should vote for Menendez. Last week was very bad for Menendez's campaign. Tom Kean should have shut up and rode the advantage. I think he blew it. | ||
| Nohero Supporter Username: Nohero Post Number: 5829 Registered: 10-1999  |
Tom Kean, Jr. can criticize the President all he wants. But, if he's elected, absolutely nothing can get done to fix the things that Kean is "complaining" about. My favorite part the article - Kean absolves Bush from the mistake in invading Iraq because Bush was "misinformed."  | ||
| anon Supporter Username: Anon Post Number: 3070 Registered: 6-2002 |
Captain Renaud: I often wonder why you came to Casablanca. Rick Blaine: My health. I came for the waters. Capt R: Waters? We're in the Desert. Rick: I was misinformed. | ||
| Nohero Supporter Username: Nohero Post Number: 5830 Registered: 10-1999 |
Anon -  I had been thinking the exact same thing. | ||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 12626 Registered: 5-2001 |
Here is a link to the poll information. The date of the Rasmussen poll was 8/28, not 8/18 as I typed in my original poll. | ||
| Michaela Citizen Username: Mayquene Post Number: 261 Registered: 1-2004  |
It doesn't matter how moderate Kean is. His election could very well keep hardline conservatives in power, and whoever has the majority controls the agenda. | ||
| Dr. Winston O'Boogie Citizen Username: Casey Post Number: 2454 Registered: 8-2003  |
I think Michaela has just posted the script for every Menendez TV ad. | ||
| Michaela Citizen Username: Mayquene Post Number: 264 Registered: 1-2004 |
Interestingly, this race is one where the overinfluence of money is made obvious. Menendez was chosen because he had $4+ million in his Senate campaign account, which could be transferred to a House campaign account. A Democrat with less baggage and more public support, say Cody, couldn't compete because he probably lacks the same political friends on the national level and because his campaign funds could not be tranferred to a federal race. Republicans, meanwhile, were very savvy in coalescing around Kean Jr., not merely because of his name. They avoided an ugly primary, such as the one that heavily tarnished Forrester last year in the governor's race. And they got to start the fundraising early, and focus the money they brought in on the general election. It's worth poining out, though, that New Jersey has not elected a Republican to the Senate since the '70s. | ||
| Michaela Citizen Username: Mayquene Post Number: 265 Registered: 1-2004 |
As a postscript, I wrote an article last year for a DC publication about whom Corzine would appoint if he won the governorship. A few NJ congressman called me because they wanted their name out there -- though it seemed unlikely anybody but Menendez or maybe Rep. Robert Andrews would be appointed. Wonder if they knew or cared they were talking to a 24-year-old junior staffer? I found it pretty funny.  | ||
| cjc Citizen Username: Cjc Post Number: 5885 Registered: 8-2003 |
Michaela -- you're wrong in saying Kean will keep the conservatives in power and control the agenda. While Kean may well facilitate votes on issues conservatives in the Senate wish to have -- and "conservative Senate" is a laffer on it's face -- it's clear that the Senate has been the stumbling block to real conservative reforms reaching Bush's desk to sign. Bush has signed everything that's crossed his desk -- some things conservative, more things not. Kean is not a conservative, and will trip up conservative efforts much like McCain, Chafee and others have during Bush's tenure. | ||
| tom Citizen Username: Tom Post Number: 5825 Registered: 5-2001 |
Having the majority also lets you control the committees, and that's where the agenda is set. Despite a fewspecific conservatives initiatives that didn't go anywhere because of Chaffee, McCain or whomever, there are far more liberal initiatives that went saw the light of day because they never got out of committee. | ||
| cjc Citizen Username: Cjc Post Number: 5887 Registered: 8-2003 |
Conservatives wouldn't be as upset as they are with the Senate if only "a few" conservative initiatives didn't go anywhere. | ||
| tom Citizen Username: Tom Post Number: 5827 Registered: 5-2001 |
They'd be a heck of a lot more upset of none of them went anywhere!  | ||
| John Caffrey Citizen Username: Jerseyjack Post Number: 596 Registered: 11-2005 |
Don't bank on Menendez winning because he is a Democrat. The new monkey wrench for the Dems. is the possible loss of support from the teachers' union and the public employees' union. This would be payback because Trenton Dems. are planning to increase the co-pay for public employees' med. benefits PLEASE: If you want to discuss the public emplyee benefits issue, start a different thread. While I don't imagine the unions giving money to Jr., they may withhold their endorsements and money from the Dems and let the war chests build for the next election. I believe the figure last election was $1.7 mil. and most of it went to the Dem. candidates. That lack of support may throw the election to Jr. | ||
| Michaela Citizen Username: Mayquene Post Number: 266 Registered: 1-2004 |
The Senate may be more liberal than the House, but it can weild greater power since also confirms or rejects the president's nominees. And since the interpretation of law is so vital, approving or rejecting judicial nominees can have a resounding effect. For example, the party that holds the majority has the power to change Senate rules to prohibit filibustering of judicial nominees, which was a big issue during the last rounds of Supreme Court nominees. If the issue before the court is one that is often divided on conservative/liberal lines, than it may matter in retrospect which party was in power when justices were confirmed. Also, it's not just what Congress does that reveals its leanings, but what it *doesn't* do. Take the minimum wage, for example, which is at its lowest purchasing power in 50 years. If surpressing that doesn't reflect the agenda of the right, I don't know what does. | ||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 12627 Registered: 5-2001 |
Here is the link I forgot to post yesterday evening. Really gotta work on my skills: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/nj/new_jersey_senate_race-10 .html While it is a longshot that the Dems will be able to take back the Senate, if Kean wins their is no possibility of this happening at all. This puts a lot of us who view Menendez as a hack between the proverbial rock and a hard place. I think Kean would probably be effective in the Senate, however electing him would kill the chances of the Dems taking the Senate and controlling committees and having supeona power. As I said, the rock and a hard place. | ||
| Southerner Citizen Username: Southerner Post Number: 1516 Registered: 2-2004 |
BobK, This is where I simply laugh my arse off. A rock and hard place? You libs should be use to fence sitting. Don't worry, a breeze is bound to come by and knock you to one side or the other. This is a perfect example of you Dems having no soul. Foj has got to be beside herself with this kind of talk. Besides, I know it's half a game for posters like you to "feel" nonpartisan, but we all know you are voting for Menendez. You just enjoy sounding nonpartisan when in reality you are as partsian as any of us. | ||
| tom Citizen Username: Tom Post Number: 5832 Registered: 5-2001 |
I don't see anyone sitting on the fence. BobK isn't happy that the Dem candidate has problems, but I don't think he's considering supporting Kean or staying home. BobK correct me if I'm wrong. What's this "no soul" thing you guys are trotting out lately? | ||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 12634 Registered: 5-2001 |
Actually, I am an independent and vote for Republican candidates regularly, including George W the first time around. I am not impressed with Menendez and would normally vote for Kean. However, I am also amongst the 65% of the population that thinks Bush is at best doing a horrible job in Washington and having to deal with a hostile Senate would probably keep him in check. As I said, rock and a hard place. | ||
| Dr. Winston O'Boogie Citizen Username: Casey Post Number: 2455 Registered: 8-2003 |
Excuse me Bob, but that doesn't sound like it should be that hard a choice if you're weighing "not impressed with Menendez" versus "Bush is at best doing a horrible job." it can't get much worse when the best you can say about someone is "horrible." | ||
| Southerner Citizen Username: Southerner Post Number: 1520 Registered: 2-2004 |
Dr., Let's give ole BobK a fair shot. To me and you the choice for him is pretty clear and deep down we all know he's voting for Menendez. It's just funny how so many voters can't grasp the big picture. Like Bob said, he voted for Bush and then he didn't. He'll probably vote for a Dem in 2008 and then when his pet issues don't go his way, he'll vote for a Repub in 2012. These type of voters are so easily manipulated which is the reason we have all the garbage of tv ads and docudramas. But remember, it makes them "feel" above the fray because they toss their vote around like a cheap hooker, when in reality they are simply missing an opportunity to effectuate positive change. | ||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 12641 Registered: 5-2001 |
Actually, I would vote for Rudy G or McCain way before I would vote for the current Dem candidates (declared or not), Hill and Biden, although the more likely candidates such as Allen or Frist would send me packing. I ain't all that liberal, other than for a strong libertarian streak. If you consider Bush to be a conservative I really, truly pity you. I also pity anyone, on the left or the right, who votes the straight party line no matter who is running. | ||
| Foj Citizen Username: Foger Post Number: 1828 Registered: 9-2004 |
Westside... IIRC that was the Quinniapac poll. the one where they said opps, we used a 60% "R" sample..... WEll a 60% "R" sample would yeild a 60% Bush number in an even 50-50 race. In the big "Q" poll.... Bush got 56%, suggesting an 8% Kerry win in NJ. Michaela ...Menedez was in the House. Justa typo. BobK.. Please look at the Ford race for Senate in Tenn, 3 months ago it wasnt on the radar, now its a dead heat. That Brings the total of Vulnerable Senate "R" seats to 7. With no DEM seats trending to "R". You really need to get out more. CJC.. Are you sure you didnt get your fantasy football mixed up with politics.... Michaela... I think you know better.... the Senate is not more lib... or con... Because the House terms are for 2 yrs, the House has always been more reactionary than the Senate. You CJC frame the question. Stick to your guns...... OK? 2Ringale.. Good but old point on the Kean family.... with Dad on the 9-11 Commision and in the news with the ABC movie of the week........ While jr is also on TV... well the effect you describe will have petered out to near zero. At least for this race. YOu see... IN NJ.... what will be the race at the top of the ballot? Kean/Menendez, right? This race is getting the most attention in the state. IF... it was a presidential year, the Kean/Menendez race would be a 2nd tier race, and would recieve 2nd tier attention... thats where the "KEAN" name would definitively help. | ||
| Southerner Citizen Username: Southerner Post Number: 1528 Registered: 2-2004 |
Bob, I hear you. I just can't understand how someone can jump from voting for Bush and then to Kerry. It's almost like those types are confused as to what they believe. I was like that as well until about my early 20's. And no, I don't look at Bush as a true conservative. The deficit spending is enough to make me sick. However, I am not naive enough to believe the Democrats will be better. They had 40 some years to take action so a few election year words aren't go to sway me. If they sway you then pull the lever. Just don't be shocked when your voting for the other party later. Foj, Keep up the good work. Your as excited as I am. | ||
| 3ringale Citizen Username: Threeringale Post Number: 392 Registered: 1-2006 |
Foj, Why the demotion to 2 rings? I think you may be right about the effect of the Kean name. I just learned today that senior was involved with the 9/11 TV movie. I would even take back my musing about replacing Menendez with Bradley. I think the deadline is Sept.20, so unless something really big comes out in the next day or two, it won't happen. I saw Menendez exiting a building where I work a few years ago. He looked surprisingly short for a politician. But then, I haven't seen too many politicians in the flesh. Cheers | ||
| Foj Citizen Username: Foger Post Number: 1831 Registered: 9-2004 |
Oh gee, sorry 3ring, a typo on part, my apologizes. When Kean Jr was being bandied about as a potential Repub nominee, I thought the name would buy him lots of votes, now I dont think so. S-man...... "how someone can jump from voting for Bush and then to Kerry." Generally I would say you are spot on.... but we are talking about Bush & Kerry. And so we find the exception to the rule. | ||
| Foj Citizen Username: Foger Post Number: 1832 Registered: 9-2004 |
I went to Scotts website. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/August%202006/NewJerseySenate .htm Kean (R) 44% Menendez (D) 39% ...........with a 4.5% margin of error. "The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 28, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence." | ||
| tom Citizen Username: Tom Post Number: 5842 Registered: 5-2001 |
It's not that hard to believe someone on the fence would have voted for Bush in 2000. Look at how he ran -- humility, moderation, save social security, keep the budget balanced, compassionate conservatism. In retrospect it's obvious it was all lies, but at the time he was reasonably convincing. | ||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 12643 Registered: 5-2001 |
Gore always struck me as sort of goofy and to be honest egotistical to boot. Kerry wasn't as bad as the Swiftboaters made him out to be. I think he was well aware of the obligations of running against an incumbent President in the middle of two wars (Iraq and Terrorism) and held back because of that. The Bush political machine, which has been ruthless back to the days of his father, took full advantage of that. Westside, the 747 that is Air Force One is a good thirty knots faster than modern twin engine transports used by the hijackers. Forgetting for a moment the half squadron of F15s protecting it, Air Force One is rumored to have a significant supply of Phoenix and Sidewinder air to air missles. Unless someone believed that Al Qaeda had smuggled in a squadron of Mig 29s, there was no danger. The thought of the President letting the Secret Service make decisions for me is scary. | ||
| Southerner Citizen Username: Southerner Post Number: 1531 Registered: 2-2004 |
Like I said, it's fence sitters like you guys that keep the money funneling in and force us all to endure all the ads. "humility, moderation, save social security, keep the budget balanced" Yeah, no other politician has run on these before. If you believe campaign speeches then I have a bridge to sell you. | ||
| tom Citizen Username: Tom Post Number: 5846 Registered: 5-2001 |
This goes deeper than your typical campaign promises that never pan out. Bush ran as a totally different kind of leader than he actually planned to be. Contrary to past winning presidents whose administrations had a tcharacter exactly as you'd expect based on how they positioned themselves (Reagan, for instance) , Bush pretended to be a moderate in all things, posed as a mild conservationist and traditional fiscal conservative, then immediately tacked extremely hard to the right on everything. It's beyond the usual superficial lies and false promises that compaigners make; he ran as an entirely different person. |
