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Message |
    
sbenois
Citizen
Username: Sbenois
Post Number: 12010
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Friday, September 3, 2004 - 10:11 pm: |     |
Question: what if you spent all of your time protesting at a convention, including spitting and yelling at guests of the city, and the result was an 11 point lead by the other guy?
Answer: you turn to Dandy Don. C'mon in here you old cowboy and sing us a song
Turn out the lights, the party's over....
They say that all good things must end
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sbenois
Citizen
Username: Sbenois
Post Number: 12011
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Friday, September 3, 2004 - 10:13 pm: | |
I am concerned that Tulip has left us.
It's okay Tulip, the country and our world will survive. |
John Davenport
Citizen
Username: Jjd
Post Number: 349
Registered: 2-2003
| | Posted on Friday, September 3, 2004 - 10:28 pm: | |
Yeah, Kerry needs a bounce event now. Or he needs the American public to suddenly gain 10 IQ points each and suddenly comprehend the federal budget disaster wrought by Bush tax cuts. That alone is enough to unelect the guy twenty times over. But now he promises more tax cuts for the wealthy, along with much more spending... My children are suddenly looking like debtors to me!
Hey, before you reply, note: I said nothing about Iraq. I don't need to. Tax cuts, environment, Halliburton, any one of these by itself would be far more than sufficient to elect the other guy. |
sbenois
Citizen
Username: Sbenois
Post Number: 12015
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Friday, September 3, 2004 - 11:44 pm: | |
But nobody knows what the other guy wants to do.
So for a lot of people now, the Anybody Bush Bush idea is slowly giving way to that old baseball axiom: sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make |
Kramer
Citizen
Username: Kramer
Post Number: 75
Registered: 9-2002
| | Posted on Saturday, September 4, 2004 - 2:11 am: | |
Here's what the other guy wants to do:
http://www.johnkerry.com/pdf/our_plan_for_america.pdf |
Cynicalgirl
Citizen
Username: Cynicalgirl
Post Number: 792
Registered: 9-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, September 4, 2004 - 6:23 am: | |
I agree that the protesters did the Kerry movement damage. To more middle of the road Americans, they made the Democrats look like a collection of whackos. Whackos with the right to free speech, but whackos none the less. Undid whatever patriotic, moderate unity the Democratic convention put across.
I'm a Democrat, but pretty centrist, and the Viet Nam war service angle makes a difference for me. I have been disappointed that Colin Powell's experience has not been stronger as I absolutely believe that direct service in that war provides insight that the chicken hawks and theoreticians permanently lack. I view Kerry's service as similarly grounding (and McCain's for that matter). But, Kerry's unwillingness to address the why and how of his his post-service anti-war activities has hurt him profoundly. As it happens, I don't have an issue with his protests, but that's the part of his record that needs addressing given how much he's touted his service.
I'll still vote for him over GWB, but if we have to have 4 more of GWB, I wish to hell he'd furlough Cheney, Wolfowitz, and Rumsfeld. |
Ed May
Citizen
Username: Edmay
Post Number: 2127
Registered: 9-2001
| | Posted on Saturday, September 4, 2004 - 10:31 am: | |
Hey cynicalgirl - I am just back from the convention - obviously I am a Republican - but I took my 19 year old Democrat daughter Mariah with me Thursday night. We checked out the scene outside my Hotel Pennsvlvania and Madison Square Garden before watching the Session at the NJ Delegation Hotel on the big screen and partying until 2 am with the rest of the NJ Delegates as they streamed back from the Garden. Mariah had quite a lengthy conversation with Bret Shundler (former JC Mayor and Candidate for Governor) and, damn, if Mariah did not hold her own on issues like education and school vouchers! Maybe I can get Mariah post on MOL about her experience as a young Democrat in a den of Republicans. Or you can stop by at NetNomads this weekend where she works before returning to college Monday. |
Maple Man
Citizen
Username: Mapleman
Post Number: 262
Registered: 6-2004
| | Posted on Saturday, September 4, 2004 - 12:28 pm: | |
the Time poll may turn out to be real, but it's currently an outlyer. Other polls conducted at the same time still show the race tight. This site has a summary of all tracking polls (and a glance through the site seems to indicate it's pretty pro-Bush):
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
besides, the national poll number means little as anyone alive in 2000 knows. The "battleground state" polls are the ones that Bush needed to move.
The only poll that counts is in November. |
tulip
Citizen
Username: Braveheart
Post Number: 1187
Registered: 3-2004
| | Posted on Saturday, September 4, 2004 - 12:31 pm: | |
Maple Man: Exactly. Check out Zogby, et al on this.
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm
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Maple Man
Citizen
Username: Mapleman
Post Number: 263
Registered: 6-2004
| | Posted on Saturday, September 4, 2004 - 12:37 pm: | |
I didn't realize Time had changed to including "leaners" in this poll from excluding them in their poll last week.
That would explain the "bounce" that didn't show up in the other polls.
If they really did that, it's just dishonest research. |
Southorangemom
Citizen
Username: Southorangemom
Post Number: 129
Registered: 6-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, September 4, 2004 - 1:15 pm: | |
Can anyone who understands how polls are conducted please explain how there can be a variance in results as seen in the link from Tulip's post above?
Does it have to do with the number of people polled?
Thanks!
SouthOrangeMom |
tulip
Citizen
Username: Braveheart
Post Number: 1189
Registered: 3-2004
| | Posted on Saturday, September 4, 2004 - 1:24 pm: | |
In the poll numbers I posted above, the responses concerning "leaning" that is "I think I might vote for..." as opposed to "I will vote for..." were not added in to the "for" or "against" numbers BEFORE the convention, but were then added into the numbers DURING the convention. That makes it look like a bigger jump than it actually was.
Look under TIME poll and you will see a little note ("Not including leaners.") )
TIME "August 26 without leaners"
and thank Maple Man for pointing that out! |
anon
Citizen
Username: Anon
Post Number: 1358
Registered: 6-2002
| | Posted on Saturday, September 4, 2004 - 6:06 pm: | |
I guess Mayor Profeta and the TC should have taken three separate polls on using the Bette White building for the Police Station. That way they would have made sure they had the right numbers! |
Mark Fuhrman
Citizen
Username: Mfpark
Post Number: 587
Registered: 9-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, September 5, 2004 - 12:27 pm: | |
Opinion polls about something as ephemeral as "who will you vote for" or "who are you leaning towards" tend to be a lot mushier and change faster than ones about something held more in the core, such as "do you approve of abortion".
Also, a lot of sociologists and political scientists have made careers out of showing how question order, question wording, and sampling procedures can affect poll results. Some of my favorites show that if you literally change the order of questions you can get very different results, even from the same sample respondents. Again, the effect is stronger with voting preference than with deeply ingrained beliefs.
As they say, the only poll that matters is the second Tuesday in November |
anon
Citizen
Username: Anon
Post Number: 1360
Registered: 6-2002
| | Posted on Sunday, September 5, 2004 - 12:33 pm: | |
Whether the polls are accurate or not, Kerry should act like they are accurate, and begin campaigning like hell.
He should also hope that Bush begins acting like those polls are accurate and that he has nothing to fear, but I doubt that Mr. Rove will allow him to act thatway. |
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