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Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 526
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Monday, May 22, 2006 - 12:16 pm: | 
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Case-
First : Your posting on Monday, it's no longer the weekend, unless someone goes on a bender of sorts.
Second: IMHO opinion you seem to have a chip on your shoulder in this and some other threads. If I enjoy posting, what does it matter to you? Do you have control issues? Does my font need a ccw permit? And what makes you think your posts are not obsessive or ponderous? (There is personal security info on many web sites from acknowledged experts you know).
Third: I don't see you addressing the subject of this thread at all, just making personal attacks based on my offending you in some nutty way. If you want me to respect your opinions, then give some on the subject. Counting posts and making snide comments doesn't show much intellect.
Otherwise just ignore my posts and any threads I put on MOL.
Thanks. |
Case
Citizen
Username: Case
Post Number: 1635
Registered: 2-2005
| | Posted on Monday, May 22, 2006 - 8:13 pm: |
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Ignore your posts? All 500 a month?
"Does my font need a CCW permit". Hmmm. I'd love to respond to that, if only it made a bit of sense!
I'll try to ignore the more inane of your postings - a high percentage, I grant you - hopefully you'll get up to 1000 by next month. |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 536
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Monday, May 22, 2006 - 10:09 pm: |
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You prove my point. Time to move on. You are arguing with yourself.
Do you have any thing to say about real estate or do you want to digress more on carrying permits? Frankly I hope you don't have one. Or for target shooting.
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Case
Citizen
Username: Case
Post Number: 1637
Registered: 2-2005
| | Posted on Monday, May 22, 2006 - 11:23 pm: |
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You're the one who was talking about CCW permits in this thread. Granted, it was an almost completely random observation... but it WAS yours, right?
I think this all started when you (the one with almost 500 posts a month) referred to someone as "obsessive" with their postings. When this was commented upon, you embarked on a string of almost completely nonsensical postings... scroll up, I think there were references to finding life on other planets (among other gems!).
Whining about my postings in another (more serious) thread regarding the attempted carjacking doesn't quite seem to be on-topic for this thread... or is it? You talk about "digressing", and yet you seem to be the one heavily drifting your own thread! It's not as amusing as someone like you referring to another poster as 'obsessive'... but it's close.
Perhaps we should start taking about something more important than real estate or an attempted carjacking - anything good on American Idol lately?
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Tom Reingold
Supporter
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 14396
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 23, 2006 - 7:25 am: |
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Kids, both of you, go to your rooms.
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Dos_centavos
Citizen
Username: Dos_centavos
Post Number: 12
Registered: 11-2005
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 23, 2006 - 4:34 pm: |
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I think a strong factor will depends on how many people stretched to stay in their homes. (1) The people who bought a home in the past 2 or 3 years with an ARM mortgage is going to feel the pain when it comes time to refinance and may be forced to sell their home because they cannot afford a new mortgage at the current higher interest rates. Especially the ones that bought in the past year or two who do not have as much equity in the house. INTEREST RATES - HOUSING CONNECTION (2) The impending tax reevaluation...a larger tax bill may push some people to sell their homes. Even some who have paid off their house but are living on a fixed income may not be able to afford to stay in their house. There are other examples but you get my point. Any factor...reset, reevaluation, etc....that causes an increase in payments will play a part. TAX REEVALUATION - HOUSING CONNECTION
All of these people may be forced to sell to get out of the house to avoid foreclosure. And if they have not fixed up their homes, they may have to sell at a discount price just to sell it. Now you have quite a few houses on the market at the same time and the smarter ones will lower their price early. Thereby prices may decline.
Having said all of that....my prediction is that the SOM market will move more sideways with a few pockets experiencing a slight 3 to 5% down turn if anything.
BTW - if we are tied to the NY housing market and they begin to sell...NYers can easily afford our prices and there may not be a downturn after all.
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Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 543
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 23, 2006 - 7:56 pm: |
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Tom Reingold-
Hey Tom, nice to see you here. Just get Case a baby-sitter for his posts. He gets very cranky when he thinks his favored Maplewood politicos are getting dissed.
Dos Equis- (sorry, like that beer) I suggest you look at the differential in listing prices last year in M/SO and this year as to % decline. If NY market becomes more affordable, i.e. decent places under 1.0-1.2 million you got a problem as more people will stay in the city. Housing prices and affordable value pushed many NYC buyers into M/SO. |
Case
Citizen
Username: Case
Post Number: 1645
Registered: 2-2005
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 23, 2006 - 8:52 pm: |
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Now 'fact'... I know you post SO much that you get confused as to who you're speaking with, but I never said anything about Maplewood politicians. That was someone else.
Check back last week, about 150 of your posts ago. 
Seriously though, I never said you were a political shill - that was someone else. I said you were hypocritical and whiny. At least, I implied it. If I didn't imply it, I was sure thinking it pretty hard.
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Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 11610
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 24, 2006 - 7:34 am: |
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Having lived through two market downturns in Maplewood what happens is that the supply dips along with the demand. Prices may dip, but as Dos says, probably less than 5%. Basically, people put off buying the moveup house and selling to move to North Carolina and a retirement condo on the beach.
The one kicker here is just how many people have bought with very little (meaning 10% or less) down while using ARMs and borrowing the maximum amount the bank will loan. I don't have figures on this, but with interest rates rising rapidly, this could change the historical pattern. |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 553
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 24, 2006 - 2:53 pm: |
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Bob K-
Is there a decline in asking price in Maplewood now, say in comparison to last year? When you say 5% what do you mean exactly?
Case-
Really guy, get an intellect transfusion. Your comebacks are weak. Address the thread or start your own pepper spray/carry permit/personal security thread. That should keep you occupied. |
Tom Reingold
Supporter
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 14424
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 24, 2006 - 2:57 pm: |
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Welcome to MOL, factvsfiction. Please take note of my motto: You cannot antagonize and influence at the same time.
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Rastro
Citizen
Username: Rastro
Post Number: 3222
Registered: 5-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 24, 2006 - 3:00 pm: |
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Tom, he's just vying for your title of most prolific poster  |
Tom Reingold
Supporter
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 14426
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 24, 2006 - 3:06 pm: |
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She can have it! I don't want it. I'm just out of control.
I don't know why I assume she's a she. factvsfiction, want to tell us?
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kevin
Supporter
Username: Kevin
Post Number: 714
Registered: 2-2002
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 24, 2006 - 3:47 pm: |
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Bob, which two market downturns have you been here for? Were you around during the '89-'90 one? That was a real downturn. Was '97-'98ish the other one?
Agree with you about your second statement. There is the possibility of people getting underwater if the market takes a hit because many are living off their equity.
For example...Homeowners who have taken out Home Equity Lines of Credit(HELOC) in the past couple of years are probably starting to get squeezed right now. Their interest adjusts with the prime rate...Usually anywhere between Prime -1% to Prime +1%. The prime rate was:
4% in May of 2004
5.75% in May of 2005
8% today
On a $100,000 loan at prime, the monthly interest payments:
$400/mo in May of 2004
$575/mo in May of 2005
$800/mo today
Add this to your regular monthly mortgage payment, utilities that have been increasing, taxes that usually increase every year, etc.
The flip side to the increasing rates is that bank savers are making more on their deposits.
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Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 11616
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 24, 2006 - 3:47 pm: |
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Fact, I don't have figures. However, at the high end there have been a number of listings over $1,000,000 this year. Last year listings in that range were as rare as hens teeth. However, I can't compare the houses for sale from year to year.
Lower down the food chain I know of one house in the $450,000 to $500,000 range that didn't sell last year and was taken off the market. This year it sold quickly. It was listed for the same price, or slightly higher, as last year.
5% is 5%, so I don't understand the question. Historically in MW and SO people who didn't have to sell (transfer, job loss, etc.) didn't sell during down periods restricting the supply side of the curve. If this is the case in the future only time will tell.
Last I checked, this morning actually, there were 130 houses listed for sale in Maplewood and about 120 in South Orange. Since I am not anal enough to keep year to year records I can't say for certain, but my feeling is that this is more of an inventory than normal. I think this may be because more old timers are realizing that it is time to sell, take the profit and run instead of inventory stacking up because of slow sales.
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Case
Citizen
Username: Case
Post Number: 1650
Registered: 2-2005
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 24, 2006 - 5:04 pm: |
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At least he wasn't stupid enough to call me 'obsessive'... perhaps it's true that ANYONE can learn?
It does seem odd, though, that 'fact' was complaining about thread drift and then continues to bring up topics from other threads.
What did I call fact before? Was it 'hypocritical'? |
Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 11617
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 24, 2006 - 6:05 pm: |
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Kevin - The early 1980s and the from around 1990 to the mid to late 1990s. I feel that the real estate market was flat for most of the 1990s and some charts Smarty Jones posted confirm this. See the thread in the money section.
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Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 555
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 24, 2006 - 6:30 pm: |
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Tom Reingold-
You appear wise for your years, henceforth you will be my MOL Yoda. Actually Tom you do take a nice balance online and you have some humility with your intellect. Not a bad MOL role model. Tom, if I am a woman, Rastro is Donnie Rumsfeld.
Case-
Do you know anything about real estate? My sense is that if all you know about is about pepper spray, you are in some deep sh#@.
BobK-
I think you need to compare asking prices last year and this year, to see where you are going. I have to go back to database info but I think our asking in MSH is down by about 5% with last year, averaged. You generally get less than asking, so the differential may be lower by a couple of percent. On your 1 mil plus homes, the taxes may have an effect,as they are competing with the MSH and Summit listings. A lot of people want under 1 mil to avoid the additional tax (kind of funny actually as they can afford, say, a 998k house).
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Case
Citizen
Username: Case
Post Number: 1654
Registered: 2-2005
| | Posted on Wednesday, May 24, 2006 - 7:13 pm: |
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Yes, Fact, all I know about is pepper spray.
(I'm trying something new. By agreeing with Fact's especially inane comments (at least some of them), I'm hoping to elicit even DUMBER responses from Fact. Granted, his earlier posts to someone about 'seeking life on other planets' was ignorant... but I'd like to see him break through to 'complete moron' soon. I'm hoping to achieve the goal by post number 700... that's about 150 posts away, so check back in a week). |
Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 11620
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, May 25, 2006 - 9:42 am: |
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Fact, here are some figures from a local MSH Realtor's website. I am posting this link without permission so I hope the Realtor doesn't mind.
http://www.adlerbenjamin.com/m_statistics.asp
At least in Maplewood, prices seem to be holding, although the inventory seems to be building because of slower selling. |
Aquaman
Supporter
Username: Aquaman
Post Number: 915
Registered: 8-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, May 25, 2006 - 10:37 am: |
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Case,
What the hell was Factvsfiction talking about? Life on other planets. Pepper spray?
It's like fvf is walking around with a lump of •••• under his nose. Reminds me of someone I met here in MSO. No, wait, it reminds me of two people. |
Case
Citizen
Username: Case
Post Number: 1673
Registered: 2-2005
| | Posted on Thursday, May 25, 2006 - 11:38 am: |
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It's a long story. If you scroll up you can read the whole thread - be warned, there are a LOT of posts - but as I recall, you accused Fact of being a political sqhill and she snapped like a dry twig under a fat boy scout's foot. Things degenerated from there.
The pepper spray thing is from another thread. Again, scroll up... but as I recall, Fact was accusing me of contributing to thread drift - and then started bringing in topics from other threads. I can't explain it further. |
mjh
Supporter
Username: Mjh
Post Number: 558
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, May 25, 2006 - 11:47 am: |
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"...snapped like a dry twig under a fat boy scout's foot"
 |
Case
Citizen
Username: Case
Post Number: 1675
Registered: 2-2005
| | Posted on Thursday, May 25, 2006 - 2:06 pm: |
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Yeah... while immodest, I have to say that WAS a good one. |
Aquaman
Supporter
Username: Aquaman
Post Number: 916
Registered: 8-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, May 25, 2006 - 3:11 pm: |
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Case,
I just scrolled and read. (phew)
So let's piece this together. A-man calls FvF a phoney-baloney character who wants us to believe he's a hale fellow well met. Just around primary election time, FvF suddenly pops into MOL as an astute observer of the goings-on in our little town, but is completely impartial, because he's from MSH. That's Millburn-Short Hills to you and me. In order to build up credibility as a MSHer, FvF spent a whole day posting in the Millburn Section to create a background for his character. And this keen impartial observer thinks that Fred Profeta would make a great addition to the Essex County Board of Chosen Freeholders.
Right.
And he's an expert on Maplewood's "parking problem" though apparently only he and Profeta and perhaps SPQR seem to think there is a problem. Great campaign issue for us Maplewoodians to discuss. Actually, Factsvsfiction has tossed in about a dozen campaign issues for us to discuss, from the "re-val" (nice touch) to the police dept. to redevelopment. This thread too, about "our home values, taxes, and new property assessments." Such an interested person, considering he's from MSH! Nevermind that people from MSH never say they're from MSH. People from Short Hills can't pronounce Millburn, and people from Millburn know better.
So, Aquaman smells a rat and calls FvF out on it. Then FvF calls Aquaman "obsessive", which is ironic, because as Case clearly caught, and everyone else did too, FvF is up to about the very highest posting rate in MOL history. 600 posts in 6 weeks. At 100 posts per week, A-man would be at 24,000 posts by now, far surpassing the actual hale fellow well met, Mr. Thos. Reingold.
Then FvF told Aquaman to search for life on planets. (?) And Case pointed out the irony in FvF's post. FvF then began attacking Case. Then others.
Never has a poster been so prolific so shortly, and become so disliked so quickly.
Then, we see Case calling FvF a "political sqhill" twice. I missed it both times, but in rereading the threads, I caught it. Can't have been a typo both times. Sounds like Case thinks FvF is really the person who used to post as Sqhill. An MOL search shows the exact same MO from years ago when Sqhill ran Profeta's campaign for office as an Independent candidate. I think Case may be right.
Sqhill is most famous for insulting the wife of a Democratic office-holder and other Democratic leaders by referring to them as "fat Democratic women". Nice.
Ironicker still, is now she's the Chair of the Democratic Party. And on the letterhead of the Profeta-backed Pettis Campaign. Nice.
>> A-man, you may have stumbled upon a secret that could shake the very foundation of our society.
>>>> Y'mean like that DaVinci code? Hey, you posted a picture of Profeta with the Mona Lisa. Was that a clue?
>> Follow the Blue Apple dude.
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Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 573
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Thursday, May 25, 2006 - 3:34 pm: |
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Aquaman-
Actually buddy I am here on MOL for the schools, MSH schools that is. NEVER posted under ANY other name on MOL.
I take it the space ship dropped you off back off in Maplewood at 10:35 a.m. today? Never lived in your town, have no business or political interests there, and none of your politicos has so much as bought me a cup of coffee... You on the other hand?....
BUT:
I take your posts to mean that you are PERSONALLY inviting me to participate in your Maplewood political threads, so I will get crackin' on that just for you bright and early on Tuesday.
My suggestion in the meantime is that you spend your weekend putting up political signs for your candidates, from driving through your lovely town it appears they are losing the signage portion of the race, bigtime.
Case-
Since your not posting about real estate you're just stalking. Guess you need real simple topics. |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 574
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Thursday, May 25, 2006 - 3:36 pm: |
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Bob K-
Thanks a lot for the site.
I am going to check out what is going on in all our areas
(lest Aquaman thinks I am focused on Maplewood for political purposes). |
Case
Citizen
Username: Case
Post Number: 1678
Registered: 2-2005
| | Posted on Thursday, May 25, 2006 - 3:47 pm: |
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Simple topics like American Idol, perhaps? Oh wait - you don't like thread drift and cross posting (unless you're doing it, correct?) Great comment about the space ship - very topical. How DO you come up with these bon mots?
I wanted to count up how many 'friends' you made on the carjacking thread, but I'll just leave it as read that you're a despised individual. Not that YOU think so, of course.
Yeah, the 'shill' thing was pretty funny. I'm sure it's a coincidence, but as soon as I made my little 'typo' on the other thread, Fact's posts really dried up. In a hurry, too! Again, I'm sure it was just a coincidence... perhaps Fact was busy coordinating police activities with MPD - I'm sure they need his/her advice. (Why am I thinking of the term 'wannabe' right now? Hmmm.)
I see Aquaman wrote a very well-thought-out posting, raising several very interesting points. I also see Fact's rebuttal, which amounts to (a) mentioning a space ship and (b) seemingly implying that local politicians may be buying Aquaman coffee.
Do you guys smell something? It seems to be the stench of desperation. Sorry, Fact.
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Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 581
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Friday, June 2, 2006 - 5:21 pm: |
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Case- I really believe your claims in another thread that you are a black belt. Given your posts it seems very obvious that you have broken more than a few wood boards and cement blocks with your head.
In comments directly relevant to this thread, unlike Case's:
John H. Vogel, Adjunct Professor at the Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College, has stated, " If interest rates do jump 3 or 4 percentage points then there's no way prices can go up..." Vogel expects interest rates to rise and housing prices to decline by as much as 20% in some markets. |
greenthumb
Citizen
Username: Green_thumb
Post Number: 6
Registered: 5-2006
| | Posted on Friday, June 2, 2006 - 5:50 pm: |
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So since house prices seemed to have doubled in the last decade, you only need to worry if you bought your house recently and you need to sell in the near future.....otherwise you are still up a pretty penny in profit although you won't have timed the market perfectly. Doesn't sound like a crisis to me. Fact -- do you flip houses or need to sell your house in the near future, is that why you are so worked up about this market? Markets swing-- just a fact of life. |
cmontyburns
Citizen
Username: Cmontyburns
Post Number: 1846
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Friday, June 2, 2006 - 9:10 pm: |
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...the key words being "in some markets."
We don't live in a traditional housing market, to put it mildly.
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Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 587
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Friday, June 2, 2006 - 10:17 pm: |
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greenthumb- In essence this affects the whole housing market food chain. The senior downscaler will essentially be looking for a less expensive house/condo/over 55 community, but still want to sell at a certain price subject to the degree they have successfully diversified assets,(reducing the extent to which their residence is their primary asset). Younger people, according to reports are more likely to have their home as their primary asset, so that a downturn affects first-time buyers and move up buyers significantly.
The SOMA market is heavily tied in to the NYC market IMHO, and the impact of lower NYC prices may affect home sales here. My comment here is that ALL our local communities should be marketing themselves out the wazooo to play it safe.
Cmonty- Issue is, who is part of the 20%. Do you remember home prices in SOMA in '96-97? I do. Have you got a lot more commercial ratables since then? |
cmontyburns
Citizen
Username: Cmontyburns
Post Number: 1847
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, June 3, 2006 - 4:56 pm: |
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You seem to be operating under the assumption that the number of people who want to leave town because they can no longer afford the taxes (or fear all the gangs, or neighbors who don't pick up after their dogs, or whatever) will exceed the number of NY-ers looking to move here because they can't afford even a studio in the outer reaches of Queens.
I think that's a flawed assumption.
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Case
Citizen
Username: Case
Post Number: 1735
Registered: 2-2005
| | Posted on Saturday, June 3, 2006 - 4:58 pm: |
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So how are the local elections going, anyway? |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 592
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Saturday, June 3, 2006 - 6:35 pm: |
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cmonty- New Yorkers come here because it is AFFORDABLE. If more of Manhattan is, less Nyers come here and drive demand in SOMA. Do you know a lot of people from South Dakota moving here? |
Nob
Citizen
Username: Nob
Post Number: 166
Registered: 4-2004
| | Posted on Sunday, June 4, 2006 - 6:38 am: |
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Today's NY Times "Residential Sales around the region" --
Short Hills: $1.8 million, 15 Slope Dr. 57 year old, 5 bedroom brick colonial. .69 acre (4 months on market) Taxes $29,664. This house was purchased as a tear down -- $1.8 million -- how bad can things be?? |
cmontyburns
Citizen
Username: Cmontyburns
Post Number: 1849
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, June 4, 2006 - 6:01 pm: |
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Factvsfiction: I guess I missed the part where more of Manhattan was becoming affordable.
Can you direct me to an address?
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John James Leuchs Jr
Citizen
Username: Clairvoyant
Post Number: 88
Registered: 8-2005
| | Posted on Sunday, June 4, 2006 - 7:41 pm: |
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If someone is looking for a house with low taxes, my parents'home just came on the market in Madison. 4 bedroom, big basement, quarter acre, and they only paid $4,700 in taxes last year. Asking price - $525,000. I know it is not fair but Morris County has no big cities so taxes are low! |
John James Leuchs Jr
Citizen
Username: Clairvoyant
Post Number: 89
Registered: 8-2005
| | Posted on Sunday, June 4, 2006 - 8:01 pm: |
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Almost forgot - Weichert (Barbara) 973-714-8814. In Maplewood and South Orange I always notice signs when renovations are being made. Doesn't that up taxes? In Madison people have gotten discrete and renovate without showcasing so that they aren't reassessed. Maybe the reassessment process is more uniform in these two towns. Only people seen renovating get reassessed it seems. |
cody
Citizen
Username: Cody
Post Number: 1014
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Sunday, June 4, 2006 - 8:34 pm: |
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When you renovate, you need a building permit from your municipality. Trying to renovate without one leaves you open to lots of hassles. Once the permit is issued, they know you are renovating and the town will send a building inspector out to check that all work is done up to code. I'm sure he/she also lets the tax department know of any work that will have increased the value of your home and that it will then be included in your assessment.
At least, that's how it worked here in Maplewood for the two separate jobs we had done that affected the number of rooms in our home.
The signs really have nothing to do with whether or not the town knows you are having work done on your home. |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 602
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Sunday, June 4, 2006 - 10:21 pm: |
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Nob- Rather than rely on one edition of the NYT Real Estate on Sunday referencing a notable sale may I suggest you instead track asking prices for homes for sale in MSH last year and for this year? Gives you a better sense of overall trends. Might get you more outspoken at boe meetings too.
Cmonty- Missed my point: As the NYC market goes, so goes SOMA. People are coming here for the commute and an actual backyard for their kids. If NYC prices decline, making the city more affordable, (actually there are some pockets, just not with the desired amenities) there goes a good number of your buyers and competition for housing, affecting sales price. If you remember the bad market prices back in '96 and '97 in SOMA, where have most of the new buyers come from since? New York. As I wrote before, North Dakota isn't in play. Your taxes, by themselves, may also affect price decline. What people are willing to pay gets adjusted due to the tax payment that gets thrown into their mortgage.
Also be interesting to know how many corporate relos SOMA actually gets in comparison with Summit, Chathams, Morris County, etc.. That may affect how the NYC market impacts SOMA if there is a decline there. |
Tom Reingold
Supporter
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 14577
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, June 4, 2006 - 10:41 pm: |
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I think cmontyburns's point is a good one. Mortgage plus taxes in SOM is never going to exceed the same sum in NYC. That's an assumption, but no one asserts otherwise. So SOM will always be more affordable than NYC, no matter the slope of the taxes. If taxes rise really sharply, we'll get a lot of turnover here, and that's a different problem, but I don't see it pushing our property values down.
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Smarty Jones
Citizen
Username: Birdstone
Post Number: 695
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Sunday, June 4, 2006 - 10:48 pm: |
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Couple replies on some posts related to the topic:
ARMS: Yes, all those idiots who ignorantly selected an ARM mortgage at 4% over the last few years, will be forced to refinance into a ......6.5% 30 year fixed....or a new 5% ARM. The horror of it! I smell foreclosures!
Foreclosures: Most of the people I see in town dining out at Lorena's, Terra, shopping at Short Hills mall, and drinking at the Pub are barely scraping by....I imagine they will all sell when their Mortgage payment goes up $200 a month, and move back into their $4,000 apt in Manhattan, to save cash.
HELOCS: Hmmmmm. How about those HELOCS locked in at 5%? No mention of that anywhere. Prime is for credit cards, goofy.
Could it possibly be that a 4.6% unemployment rate is a big piece of willingness of the us consumer to take the time and renovate aging housing stock, LOOOOOOONG overdue overhaul of US existing housing stock? Could it be that dips down in US housing could prove to be as Meaningless as the Dips in Stock Market??? Could it be that an additional 2-4MM new births per year + the 5MM immigration of working people (ie a GROWING nation, as opposed to shrinking) actually drives values to existing house prices up?
And finally, if you were to check your futures contract pricing (best predictor out there on Interest rates) you will see even odds next year of Rate CUTS, not hikes. All those idiots who did 4% ARMS will either sell their homes for a 15% gain and trade up, or will just refi into a possibly LOWER 30 year mortgage. (or wisely pick another ARM).
One other fact check- a 2-3% rise in interest rates is extremely unprecedented on historical basis, particularly when considering relationship to inflation (the ONLY correlation that actually matters).....
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John James Leuchs Jr
Citizen
Username: Clairvoyant
Post Number: 90
Registered: 8-2005
| | Posted on Sunday, June 4, 2006 - 11:00 pm: |
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The two people I know who quietly renovated homes near my parents are in the building business. I don't think they filed any paperwork for the renovations they made to their homes and property. Both of them completed the work several years ago so I guess they were just lucky. But, I wonder what will happen if the assessor ever comes knocking on their doors and sees the improvements. That is what made me curious. Yhanks Cody. I've never owned a home so I have no experience. |
Nob
Citizen
Username: Nob
Post Number: 170
Registered: 4-2004
| | Posted on Monday, June 5, 2006 - 7:17 am: |
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The authorities have the "right" to make the homeowners undo unpermitted work and then get permits to redo the work -- have actually seen this invoked but not frequently. Unpermitted improvements are one reason why townwide individual home inspections are completed before a big reval. Eventually it catches up with the owner. |
peteglider
Citizen
Username: Peteglider
Post Number: 1984
Registered: 8-2002
| | Posted on Monday, June 5, 2006 - 9:37 am: |
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15 years ago, as relatively newbie homeowners, we finished the basement of our house -- family room and office. When it came time to sell the house, we had a buyer whose lawyer specifically asked about improvements. Naively, perhaps, told them that the basement had been done (but no permit, did we need one?!?).
Since we, then voluntarily, went to the town building inspector, they were great to work with in getting a permit. However, that did require knocking more than a few holes in the walls and ceiling to install more firestopping, and worst of all, replacing the sill plate all around with treated lumber.
Live and learn... I have a number of neighbors who have done much more un permitted work in their homes. Makes me wonder what could happen when they go to sell.
Pete |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 607
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Monday, June 5, 2006 - 4:15 pm: |
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Smarty- Nice contrarian post.
But I think there are a certain number of people who bought beyond their means and who a decline in value will strongly affect. Remember the aftermath of the 80s real estate market?
There are always the anecdotal big shot buyers who after buying their home can't afford to furnish it. Or dine out and spend money at the Mall via credit cards, making interest-only payments.
But--- how many people who moved here in the past 5-7 years have great liquidity? What are their other financial obligations- retirement, college savings, etc?
I believe you are understating the number of Jumbos used in this area, as well as the small amounts of money put down and current equity. What about the cost of their prospective move up houses?
If lenders are considering a 50 year mortgage product to allow people to afford homes out of their real world price range, hmmm. |
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