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Message |
    
Zoesky1
Citizen
Username: Zoesky1
Post Number: 1559
Registered: 6-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 14, 2006 - 1:33 pm: | 
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You guys might also find interesting info here:
http://nnjbubble.blogspot.com/2006/05/northern-new-jersey-april-residential.html |
Tom Reingold
Supporter
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 14704
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 14, 2006 - 5:14 pm: |
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That blog does seem to show downward trends. Still, I don't think many of us will suffer badly from it. Then again, some claim that lots of newcomers are over-leveraged. I hope not.
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Peter G. Magic
Citizen
Username: Pmagic
Post Number: 133
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Monday, June 19, 2006 - 1:15 pm: |
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The monthly national homebuilder's association survey just came out and it is at the lowest level since April 1995. Only the West is in positive territory. The Midwest is the worst followed by the Northeast. The south almost is in positive territory. This will all trickle down eventually to home prices so if you are planning to sell, sell sooner rather than later. |
Jersey_Boy
Citizen
Username: Jersey_boy
Post Number: 1136
Registered: 1-2006
| | Posted on Monday, June 19, 2006 - 9:36 pm: |
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What if you aren't planning to sell for, like, ten years? Don't these markets always trend up over the long haul?
Let's not forget how helpful the SOPAC will be "soon."
J.B. |
Rick B
Citizen
Username: Ruck1977
Post Number: 1131
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 20, 2006 - 8:08 am: |
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Home sales are also listed in the Star Ledger every sunday. |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 708
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 20, 2006 - 9:01 am: |
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You can't go by broad generalizations in terms of a specific market, like SOMA.
Increases in interest rates and higher taxes can affect values, but desirability of the community to the buyer is a key, as people's perception of value drives their buying decisions.
If the value is there people will use non-conventional mortgage products in order to buy or take a cost/value approach to the taxes.
You should review your market prices in about 6 months time. |
Smarty Jones
Citizen
Username: Birdstone
Post Number: 803
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 12:36 am: |
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JB, in 10 years Maplewood will be in great shape..South Orange will likely be in the tank though.....sorry. |
Peter G. Magic
Citizen
Username: Pmagic
Post Number: 135
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 8:41 am: |
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Jersey Boy, I am talking about a window of three years. Ten years down the road no one can predict. I know Smarty Jones is kidding with you but, if one of the towns were to go down the tubes it would be Maplewood. South Mountain, Newstead, and Montrose, and the Jefferson area of Maplewood will maintain their desirability. Parker Ave. to Seth Boyden are areas of contention. But for the last twenty years people have predicted that there would be flight (as in Vailsburg) and it has never happened. I would venture a guess that in ten years the housing market cycle will be on the upswing again and you would have no problem selling your house. But it is more of a gamble in certain parts of our towns. |
C Bataille
Citizen
Username: Nakaille
Post Number: 2676
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 8:55 am: |
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Peter, the part of Mwood you describe as "areas of contention" has recently seen its best growth toward stability and economic viability in decades. We've lived there for 14 years and have seen our neighborhood change very positively. We've also watched the changes in housing prices that the reval stimulated. The people moving in have the resources to upgrade their homes. They are taking the jitney to the train, having children, and are not scared of their neighbors, even the folks across the way in Irvington or Newark. The only flight going on is inbound from NY. Things may level off but there is no evidence of decline. Some houses used to sit on the market for more than a year, despite price reductions. And some never sold. That's how out of balance the tax situation was. So if it takes a couple of months to sell a house, big deal. That is normal in other towns and a heck of a lot better than it used to be around here. |
Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 11894
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 9:17 am: |
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In the 1990s, especially the late 1990s Hilton and the area east of Boyden were well on the way to becoming West Irvington. However, in the last five years this seems to be changing. The area is reintegrating (according to a CCR study by George Robinson) and housing prices have appreciated more than in other areas of Maplewood, including west of the railroad.
These are about the only areas of Maplewood where a young family not working on Wall Street can afford to buy. |
cmontyburns
Citizen
Username: Cmontyburns
Post Number: 1878
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 9:37 am: |
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Just curious: Anyone have any evidence yet that the title of this thread "Wow, house prices are falling" is true in Maplewood/South Orange?
As in: A year ago, a typical 4 bedroom, 2 bath home cost about X, and now, it costs about (some value below X).
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Tom Reingold
Supporter
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 14778
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 9:44 am: |
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No, not yet. We've presented evidence that prices are rising or stable. And we've offered conjecture about what is going to happen in the foreseeable future, and that conjecture has a wide range of possibilities.
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greenetree
Supporter
Username: Greenetree
Post Number: 8151
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 9:50 am: |
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Monty - I don't know how much that would really mean. Some of the houses that sold for $500k & over in my neighborhood used to boggle my mind. Even at handsome rates, I thought that they were usually about $50k-$75k overpriced.
A house on our block that started as a $600k FSBO went for $475k after one year. It was newly painted and carpeted, but otherwise untouched since the 1950s. The house on Tuscan next to the Prospect church was listed on Foxton at over $600k last year. I took the virtual tour & remember that it needed new everything. It is now listed by Remax. Don't know the price, but I'll but it's almost $100k lower.
I will get concerned when houses that have been completely done (bathrooms, kitchens, heating, electric, plumbing, etc.) start dropping drastically. |
Smarty Jones
Citizen
Username: Birdstone
Post Number: 809
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 10:16 am: |
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Invariably, as has been the case over the past few years (with everyone crying doom is near) last quarters numbers printed yet ANOTHER handsome increase in YOY pricing.
The only actualy factual note was a doubling/tripling of average time on market.
New housing permits down significantly too, but this has more to do with overbuilding in the ex-urbs, than it does with Existing Housing prices. |
Innisowen
Citizen
Username: Innisowen
Post Number: 2064
Registered: 3-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 10:35 am: |
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Even if the prices don't soar off the charts, as some feel that they have done during the past few years, all of us who own homes in this area have seen a stunning increase in the potential price for our homes.
You just don't want to get greedy. |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 719
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 1:00 pm: |
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Ultimately it is a question of who your buyers are for your town.
Without an analysis of that the rest is conjecture.
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greenetree
Supporter
Username: Greenetree
Post Number: 8155
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 1:13 pm: |
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On Realtor.com I noticed several "under construction" townhouses in Maplewood. The only new residential building I know about is the on SA, across from the library.
Anyone know where these new townhouses are being constructed? I'm curious. |
Tom Reingold
Supporter
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 14793
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 1:14 pm: |
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Burnett Ave?
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pmart
Citizen
Username: Pmart
Post Number: 175
Registered: 7-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 1:20 pm: |
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Burnett @ Rutgers |
S.L.K. 2.0
Citizen
Username: Scrotisloknows
Post Number: 1744
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 1:29 pm: |
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Burnett Ave indeed...and they look great!  I think most of the are already sold as well.... |
greenetree
Supporter
Username: Greenetree
Post Number: 8157
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 1:41 pm: |
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I'll admity that when I read the description and saw that they have no basements, I got jealous. I've come to the conclusion that, around here anyway, basements are a PIA. They collect crap and water and encourage over-indulgence at Costco.
Give me a laundry room on the second floor an attic to store the holiday stuff, a garage with room for a workbench and a pantry to store reasonable amounts of stuff from Costco. Everything else can go.
We have boxes in our basement that remain unpacked from our move into the house. Nine years ago. |
Peter G. Magic
Citizen
Username: Pmagic
Post Number: 136
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 9:52 pm: |
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C Bataille, I said that I thought everything would be fine but that Smarty Jones's contention that South Orange was more vulnerable was not true. The least expensive real estate is the most vulnerable. That doesn't mean that there will be problems. For over twenty years citizens have been predicting a Vailsburg decline that has never happened. I am optimistic that things will continue to go well. |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 726
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 10:57 pm: |
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Self-fufilling prophesies?
Locusts, boils, and plagues with that too? |
Peter G. Magic
Citizen
Username: Pmagic
Post Number: 137
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 11:12 pm: |
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Yes, a plague could hurt the real estate market which continues to grow as population increases. That doesn't mean that there aren't up and down cycles. We are definitely in a down cycle now with interest rates rising and the quick growth over the past five years not being sustainable. |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 729
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 11:30 pm: |
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Peter-
Nothing like convincing out-of-towners that read MOL and are looking to buy a house in SOMA to offer even less  .
Way to go people ! |
Peter G. Magic
Citizen
Username: Pmagic
Post Number: 138
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 11:48 pm: |
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FF, no one is being fooled. The housing market in the Northeast is bad and the Midwest is even worse. It will come back but it has just started to fall. People who are planning to move within the next few years need to be warned that sooner is better than later. The housing market has cycles just like the stock market. |
John James Leuchs Jr
Citizen
Username: Clairvoyant
Post Number: 92
Registered: 8-2005
| | Posted on Thursday, June 22, 2006 - 7:22 am: |
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I don't know about South Orange and Maplewood but the slump has definitely hit Morris county. I just sold my parents 4 bedroom house for $475,000. It took 3 weeks. Last year I could have gotten $525 - 550,000. And it would have sold in 3 days. The taxes are below $5,000 a year, making Madison an ideal place to buy. But for sale signs, which never lasted before, are in front of houses for 6 months or more. |
Smarty Jones
Citizen
Username: Birdstone
Post Number: 812
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Thursday, June 22, 2006 - 7:45 am: |
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Peter, what world are YOU living in? Since when did a house on the market for 3 weeks denote a bad real estate market? Talk to me when houses sit for a year, than explain to me how bad it is.
John, you have no idea what you could have gotten last year because you didn't list the house last year. For all you know, it could have been $425. Mid Atlantic Existing house prices are up 2.2% in 2006 (annualizing at a 15% increase) so anyone who is slashing price is getting bad advice from their realtor. If your house truly could have sold for 550 last year, it should have been listed at 560 this year.
Could it get bad real quick? Absolutely! Is it bad right now? Absolutely NOT.
Numbers don't lie, just MOL'ers....
South Orange is FAR more vulnerable than Maplewood....a 5% drop in Maplewood will equate to a 15% drop in SO....mostly because our pub rocks and your brewpub stinks. |
Zoesky1
Citizen
Username: Zoesky1
Post Number: 1566
Registered: 6-2003
| | Posted on Friday, June 23, 2006 - 1:27 pm: |
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This is interesting info, although Maplewood not included here:
From a blog called nnjbubble.blogspot.com:
Price Reduced! 6/4 - 6/22
Welcome to another edition of Price Reduced!
For all the newcomers to this blog, Price Reduced! takes a look at a handful of significant price reductions across Northern NJ. The purpose of this exercise is to serve as proof that the Northern New Jersey real estate market has long since been overvalued and has started the long hard decline back to the mean. These listings are in no way an endorsement by myself, nor do I believe they are a bargain or a value. Even reduced, I still believe these homes are still grossly overpriced.
The list is (mostly) straight off the top:
MLS# 2288307 - Little Falls, NJ (Ranch)
Previous Price $350,000
List Price $265,000 (Price Reduced 24.3%)
MLS# 2278701 - Springfield, NJ (Colonial)
Original List Price $499,000
Previous Price $450,000
List Price $349,900 (Price Reduced 22%, 29.9% off OLP)
MLS# 2278848 - East Amwell, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $895,000
List Price $699,000 (Price Reduced 21.9%)
MLS# 2260619 - Stillwater, NJ (Ranch)
Previous Price $245,000
List Price $199,000 (Price Reduced 18.8%)
MLS# 2283463 - Wayne, NJ (Develpmt)
Previous Price $489,000
List Price $399,000 (Price Reduced 18.4%)
MLS# 2274620 - Montclair, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $729,900
List Price $598,000 (Price Reduced 18.1%)
MLS# 2270141 - Franklin Lakes, NJ (Colonial)
Original List Price $924,900
Previous Price $849,900
List Price $699,900 (Price Reduced 17.4%, 24.3% off OLP)
MLS# 2283592 Elizabeth, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $470,000
List Price $390,000 (Price Reduced 17%)
MLS# 2100785 - Hackettstown, NJ (Victorian)
Previous Price $598,000
List Price $498,000 (Price Reduced 16.7%)
MLS# 2245059 - Hillsborough, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $1,199,999
List Price $999,999 (Price Reduced 16.7%)
MLS# 2257607 - Scotch Plains, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $1,195,900
List Price $999,999 (Price Reduced 16.4%)
MLS# 2255116 - Frankford, NJ (Colonial)
Original List Price $475,000
Previous Price $429,900
List Price $360,000 (Price Reduced 16.3%, 24.2% off OLP)
MLS# 2087523 - Newark, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $400,000
List Price $335,000 (Price Reduced 16.3%)
MLS# 2276200 - North Caldwell, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $950,000
List Price $799,000 (Price Reduced 15.9%)
MLS# 2258587 - Harmony, NJ (Colonial)
Original List Price $499,900
Previous Price $449,900
List Price $380,000 (Price Reduced 15.5%, 24% off OLP)
MLS# 2226538 - Blairstown, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $650,000
List Price $550,000 (Price Reduced 15.4%)
MLS# 2243794 - Hackensack, NJ (FirstFlr)
Previous Price $230,000
List Price $195,000 (Price Reduced 15.2%)
MLS# 2257607 - Scotch Plains, NJ (Colonial)
Previous PRice $2,350,000
List Price $1,999,000 (Price Reduced 14.9%)
MLS# 2271609 - Denville, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $469,900
List Price $399,900 (Price Reduced 14.9%)
MLS# 2241648 - Scotch Plains, NJ (Custom)
Original List Price $1,695,000
Previous Price $1,399,000
List Price $1,199,000 (Price Reduced 14.3%, 29.3% off OLP)
MLS# 2237685 - Wayne, NJ (Colonial)
Original List Price $353,900
Previous Price $349,900
List Price $299,900 (Price Redced 14.3%, 15.3% off OLP)
MLS# 2262252 - Randolph, NJ (Colonial)
Original List Price $749,900
Previous Price $699,900
List Price $599,900 (Price Reduced 14.3%, 20% off OLP)
MLS# 2272654 - Kingwood, NJ (Ranch)
Previous Price $525,000
List Price $450,000 (Price Reduced 14.3%)
MLS# 2287003 - Bound Brook, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $349,000
List Price $299,900 (Price Reduced 14.1%)
MLS# 2269011 - Sparta, NJ (Cape Cod)
Previous Price $649,000
List Price $557,900 (Price Reduced 14%)
MLS# 2259908 - Mount Olive, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $579,900
List Price $499,900 (Price Reduced 13.8%)
MLS# 2251965 - Westfield, NJ (Victorian)
Previous Price $1,450,000
List Price $1,250,000 (Price Reduced 13.8%)
MLS# 2259815 - Phillipsburg, NJ (Cape Cod)
Previous Price $255,000
List Price $219,900 (Price Reduced 13.8%)
MLS# 2281843 - Summit, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $799,900
List Price $ 689,900 (Price Reduced 13.8%)
MLS# 2268787 - Chatham, NJ (Ranch)
Previous Price $740,000
List Price $640,000
MLS# 2233988 - Summit, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $1,850,000
List Price $1,600,000 (Price Reduced 13.5%)
MLS# 2110935 - Pohatcong, NJ (Ranch)
Original List Price $256,000
Previous Price $229,900
List Price $199,000 (Price Reduced 13.4%, 22.3% off OLP)
MLS# 2260652 - Clifton, NJ (Custom)
Previous Price $2,599,000
List Price $2,250,000 (Price Reduced 13.4%)
MLS# 2251943 - Fort Lee, NJ (First Flr)
Original List Price $84,900
Previous Price $74,900
List Price $64,900 (Price Reduced 13.4%, 23.6% off OLP)
MLS# 2266086 - Clinton, NJ (Custom)
Previous Price $375,000
List Price $325,000 (Price Reduced 13.3%)
MLS# 2284653 - Bergenfield, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $679,000
List Price $589,000 (PRice Reduced 13.3%)
MLS# 2281812 - Montclair, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $575,000
List Price $499,000 (Price Reduced 13.2%)
MLS# 2286531 - Hackensack, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $1,150,000
List Price $999,000 (Price Reduced 13.1%)
MLS# 2279116 - Millburn, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $2,295,000
List Price $1,995,000 (Price Reduced 13.1%)
MLS# 2258916 - Glen Ridge, NJ (Colonial)
Original List Price $529,900
Previous Price $459,900
List Price $399,900 (Price Reduced 13%, 24.5% off OLP)
MLS# 2233170 - Scotch Plains, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $1,150,000
List Price $999,999 (Price Reduced 13%)
MLS# 2268598 - Millburn, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $2,295,000
List Price $1,999,000 (Price Reduced 12.9%)
MLS# 2255951 - Morris Twp, NJ (Colonial)
Previous Price $1,950,000
List Price $1,750,000 (Price Reduced 12.8%)
This period of time (6/4 - 6/22) saw 4289 price reductions. The average price reduction was 4.3%, which represents a total dollar amount of $102,787,035.
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Tom Reingold
Supporter
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 14805
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Friday, June 23, 2006 - 6:45 pm: |
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Does that answer your question, cmontyburns?
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cmontyburns
Citizen
Username: Cmontyburns
Post Number: 1884
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, June 24, 2006 - 2:10 pm: |
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since there's not a single listing from maplewood or south orange, not really. and with the exception of montclair, im not sure any of those towns have the same appeal for NYC residents as maplewood/south orange/west orange.
Also, the first line leaves me a bit skeptical about the nature of the conclusion. "Price Reduced! takes a look at a handful of significant price reductions across Northern NJ. The purpose of this exercise is to serve as proof that the Northern New Jersey real estate market has long since been overvalued and has started the long hard decline back to the mean."
So, in other words, you selectively pick a group of homes whose prices have been lowered, to arrive at the conclusion that prices are falling in northern new jersey.
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cmontyburns
Citizen
Username: Cmontyburns
Post Number: 1885
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, June 24, 2006 - 2:13 pm: |
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I just got a card in the mail from Weichert today showing sales in "my area." There are about 40 homes listed. About 25 of them sold for over the asking price, about 5 sold for right at the asking price (within $5k) and about 10 sold for at least 5k below the asking price.
Again, it's a selected list, so I wouldn't draw any conclusions from it.
Also, it's one thing to say people are lowering their prices, but another to say that homes are selling for less today than they did a year ago. The latter is obviously much more cause for concern. But someone pricing a home this summer at $100k more than it would have been priced last summer, and then selling it for $50k below asking, is still selling a home for $50k more than it went for a year ago. |
Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 11931
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Saturday, June 24, 2006 - 2:23 pm: |
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This is a slimy slope. If people priced their houses assuming another 15 to 20 percent increase this spring they are going to have to lower their price.
A few months ago someone posted a similar list from the website Zoesky used. One of the houses is one we looked at in Millburn and it was way overpriced. It was what we called "an old lady house" and needed everything. The six inches of water in the basement was a turnoff as well.
Cmonty, does the ad flyer show the sales dates? |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 762
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Saturday, June 24, 2006 - 10:27 pm: |
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Bob K-
Actually its called a lap pool. Guess there is no accounting for taste in homes .
I would start worrying in SOMA when houses listed in the higher 900k range start dumping down to the 800k range. |
susan1014
Supporter
Username: Susan1014
Post Number: 1624
Registered: 3-2002
| | Posted on Sunday, June 25, 2006 - 2:52 pm: |
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Some houses are way overpriced...was true 10 years ago, is true now. I suspect that there are a number of aggressive valuations on the market now, from people hoping to cash in at peak. If they are being reduced, that suggests a reality check. If everything is being reduced, that suggests a market change. I can't tell which is true.
(but someone on my street with a high listing price is having their fourth or fifth open house as we speak, and my sense is that the realtor isn't getting much company...) |
John James Leuchs Jr
Citizen
Username: Clairvoyant
Post Number: 93
Registered: 8-2005
| | Posted on Monday, June 26, 2006 - 9:39 am: |
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I got out of the stock market before the major decline several years ago. I saw the signs and got nervous when stocks were going up at rates that were not sustainable. We are only a few months into the housing slump and it is not too late to sell but it won't be as easy as last year. I wanted my parents to sell last year but they were not ready. Fortunately, they had enough property that a builder has bought their house. But anyone who has looked for a house in Madison knows they only stayed on the market for days. When a house came up there were many bidders and they buyer got more than the asking price. There were only three small homes in town that everyone joked about because they were way overpriced and they only sold when they came down to a reasonable value. Now you don't see homes selling very often in less than three or four months. People have come up to me and asked how I sold my parents house in three weeks. Well, June is the month to sell - not July and August - so I accepted $475,000 instead of the asking price of $525,000. Madison has always been considered a town people want to live in because of the low taxes, good schools, and two universities. My parents only paid $4,700 last year. Now, I see lots of for sale signs - a new phenomenon and very few sold or under contract signs.
Again, if you plan to move in the next few years, now is the time because it will only get worse. The interest rates are expected to rise in a few weeks. The housing inventory is continuing to build. In six months, you will not get the price that you could get today. Again, advice only for those who plan a move in the near future. |
greenetree
Supporter
Username: Greenetree
Post Number: 8201
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Monday, June 26, 2006 - 10:52 am: |
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TS and I were also debating whether the slow-down in the immediate post-9/11 escape from NY evacuees has put a reality check on the market. There were a lot of people who were fleeing for any price they could afford. |
cmontyburns
Citizen
Username: Cmontyburns
Post Number: 1886
Registered: 12-2003
| | Posted on Monday, June 26, 2006 - 11:34 am: |
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"In six months, you will not get the price that you could get today."
I'll take that bet. |
greenetree
Supporter
Username: Greenetree
Post Number: 8203
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Monday, June 26, 2006 - 11:37 am: |
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Well, in 6 months, it will be December, which is a slow period, anyway. Make the seasonal adjustment before forming the opinion.
Of course, if everyone panics and sells "before it gets worse" then it definitely will. Self-fulfilling prophecy and all..... |
Smarty Jones
Citizen
Username: Birdstone
Post Number: 835
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Monday, June 26, 2006 - 11:59 am: |
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Which post-911 escape are you referring to? The one that involved the largest influx EVER of new residents to Manhattan, or are you referring to some other event?
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Mtam
Citizen
Username: Mtam
Post Number: 113
Registered: 11-2005
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 5, 2006 - 9:05 am: |
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I was wondering about the houses in the Jefferson area, where they're asking either just under a million or over. There are several on the market --- they're lovely and big -- but it certainly marked a new level that there were so many houses at that price. Are these houses moving? Or is there a slow down? |
Tom Reingold
Supporter
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 14877
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 5, 2006 - 11:28 am: |
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We may be having the slowdown people are speaking of. The slowdown may lead to prices going down overall. Time will tell. We still don't know yet.
And remember, in observing trends, you cannot ever accurately describe the present. You can only observe the past. The more recent a period you are observing, the less accuracy you have.
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Josh Holtz
Citizen
Username: Jholtz
Post Number: 511
Registered: 4-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 5, 2006 - 12:43 pm: |
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There is only one reason why a house doesn't sell - price. If people continue to over value their house then there are going to be more price reductions in the marketplace.
I have seen prices thrown on houses that are completely ridiculous. I understand that the homeowner has final say over the listing price of their home but I firmly believe it is a Realtor's responsibilty to work with the homeowner to determine a good price. The more overpriced houses on the market ... the more price reductions ... thus leading to what can be viewed as a weak market.
A strong valued home will sell in almost any type of market. |
Bajou
Citizen
Username: Bajou
Post Number: 934
Registered: 2-2006
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 5, 2006 - 1:11 pm: |
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This is really not a guessing game at this point...it is plain and simple.
The average american is grossly overextended and now you throw in a decent mixture of high interest rates, high taxes, and a good old dose of extreme oil prices and you got the base for the soup. Then you wait for a couple of decent global crisis and your market gets volatile and their we go ...
Plus right now you we are at the end of the good market. The spring is when even a sluggish markets will pull a little as it is the time where people who have to move will move. They want their kids to be able to settle in over the summer and start school in the new place. With the real estate market correcting to a sustainable level, the global politics being in major limbo, the stock market being as volatile as it can get I think you can forget any stabalization of the prices for the next year. It won't be a crash but it will be a steady slide downwards. This is my personal opinion. |
Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 12031
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 5, 2006 - 1:34 pm: |
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Mtam, at least some of them are. According to www.domania.com in April and May four houses closed in MW with sale prices over $1,000,000. Two were above Wyoming Avenue, one in Roosevelt Park and the forth south of Roosevelt Park. The price for the latter house may be a new Maplewood record.
Still, as far as the Jefferson area is concerned there are still a lot of signs up. |
Oregon gal
Citizen
Username: Oregon_gal
Post Number: 46
Registered: 6-2006
| | Posted on Wednesday, July 5, 2006 - 10:27 pm: |
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As someone who just bought a house in the Jefferson area, this thread makes my stomach hurt! |
The Libertarian
Citizen
Username: Local_1_crew
Post Number: 2049
Registered: 3-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, July 6, 2006 - 12:07 am: |
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i am in the process of selling my home and have received offers well above my asking price. i had put the house up with a price more than 30% higher than what i paid for it 2 years ago. i have since raised the asking price by another 10% and have 3 people ready to go to contract at the new price.
i live in the hilton area, but not for much longer. |
Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 12044
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, July 6, 2006 - 8:34 am: |
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At present there are twelve houses for sale in MW with prices over $900,000. Five of the houses are priced over $1,000,000. All appear to be in the Jefferson or South Mountain school districts.
As of this morning there were 134 houses listed on GSMLS for sale in MW. A couple of weeks ago this number was, from memory, right around 140. Since only the most intrepid seller would list the week before July 4, this number may go up by the weekend. |
Smarty Jones
Citizen
Username: Birdstone
Post Number: 879
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Thursday, July 6, 2006 - 10:27 am: |
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If you REALLY want to groan, go to Zillow.com to value your home...they list the TAX price, so it's typically 30-40% below what you probably paid :-)
In all reality, Oregongirl, don't SWEAT A THING....people have been betting on a housing crash going back to the 50's, and continue to be wrong. other than a couple 6 mos time periods over the past 60 years, there has NEVER been a bad time to have bought a house.
Bajou, care to place a little wager on your ridiculous prediction? Tell me how much you think Housing will go down next year, and we can come up with a fun MOL wager that you will be flat out wrong. Loser uses a name and graphic of the winners choosing for 3 months. |
Virtual It Girl
Citizen
Username: Shh
Post Number: 4691
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, July 6, 2006 - 10:29 am: |
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 Gee Bob, I've never been called "intrepid" but I guess I have a nice set of cajones because we listed right before July 4 and are under contract already!
I wanted to get the house on the market before summer went into full swing, but had no idea it would go so quickly. |
Hank Zona
Supporter
Username: Hankzona
Post Number: 5825
Registered: 3-2002
| | Posted on Thursday, July 6, 2006 - 10:40 am: |
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I never thought of VIG as literally having cajones. And obviously, the market for red houses is red hot, as she has proved.
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Virtual It Girl
Citizen
Username: Shh
Post Number: 4692
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, July 6, 2006 - 10:54 am: |
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xoxoxoxo
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MeAndTheBoys
Citizen
Username: Meandtheboys
Post Number: 4175
Registered: 12-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, July 6, 2006 - 11:03 am: |
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Congrats VIG.
That can't be making our friends/your neighbors (you know the ones) too happy, based on what little luck they've had so far. It's very strange. |
Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 12050
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, July 6, 2006 - 11:09 am: |
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Great Vig!!!
Maybe I am just old fashioned, but I wouldn't think you would get a lot of traffic on a holiday weekend.
Just curious, are you and Me neighbors?
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MeAndTheBoys
Citizen
Username: Meandtheboys
Post Number: 4176
Registered: 12-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, July 6, 2006 - 11:10 am: |
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We are, but not for long. |
Smarty Jones
Citizen
Username: Birdstone
Post Number: 881
Registered: 10-2005
| | Posted on Thursday, July 6, 2006 - 1:05 pm: |
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Manhattan Has Most Apartments for Sale Since 1994 (Update1)
2006-07-06 10:28 (New York)
(Adds average square-foot price for co-ops and condominiums
in 13th and 14th paragraphs.)
By Kathleen M. Howley
July 6 (Bloomberg) -- Manhattan apartment sales fell 15
percent in the second quarter because of rising mortgage rates,
leaving more units on the market than at any time in at least a
dozen years, according to a new report.
Sales of condominiums and cooperative apartments declined
from a year earlier to 1,934, a five-year low for the second
quarter, according to the report released today by property
appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas
Elliman. Unsold units climbed 54 percent to 7,640, the highest
since at least 1994.
The average price paid for an apartment rose 5.2 percent to
a record $1.39 million, the smallest year-over-year gain since
2003, according to the report. Rising prices, falling sales and
surging inventory often signal a real estate slowdown.
``It's clear, even with new price records, that the boom is
behind us,'' said Miller Samuel President Jonathan Miller, 45.
Fueled by Wall Street bonus money, Manhattan apartment
prices gained 77 percent over the past four years, making the
borough the most expensive urban market in the U.S. Investment
banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley handed
out a record $21.5 billion in bonuses at the end of 2005 as the
Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained for the third straight year,
according to New York State Comptroller Alan Hevesi.
``Bonus money defines our market,'' said Pamela Liebman,
president and chief executive officer of property brokerage
Corcoran Group.
Fed's Role
The Federal Reserve's campaign to contain inflation and
cool home-price growth by raising borrowing costs sent mortgage
rates to a four-year high in June. The average U.S. rate for a
30-year fixed mortgage was 6.78 last month, the highest since
April 2002.
Federal policy makers boosted the overnight lending rate to
5.25 percent on June 29, the 17th increase in two years. The S&P
500 fell 3.1 percent in May and June on concern that higher
rates would choke economic growth.
Tika Fotoglidi, 33, put her co-op apartment near the Empire
State Building on the market in April for $439,000. In June, she
dropped the price to $419,000, a move that failed to entice an
offer. The 560-square-foot unit has hardwood floors, a new
kitchen and bathroom, and views of the Manhattan skyline.
``It's not a seller's market,'' said Fotoglidi, president
of Upper Taste Market Group in Manhattan, an event-planning
company. ``Buyers are very savvy, and they know that the market
is slowing, which means they get to be as choosy as they want.''
It took an average of 144 days to sell a unit in the
borough in the quarter, an increase from 102 days a year ago,
according to Miller's data.
Co-op Versus Condo
The dollar value of sales in the quarter totaled $2.68
billion, a decline of 10 percent from a year ago, while the
average price per square foot reached a record $1,083, Miller
said.
The average price of a cooperatively owned apartment, or
co-op, rose 18 percent to $1.3 million, or $995 per square foot.
Co-ops with two or more bedrooms rose to 48 percent of sales
from 45 percent a year earlier, the report showed.
The average price of a condominium fell 7.4 percent to
$1.45 million, driven by units with four or more bedrooms, which
fell 54 percent to $6.35 million. The average price per square
foot for a condominium was $1,149.
The median Manhattan price rose 14 percent to a record
$880,000, a gain of 85 percent over four years, according to
Miller Samuel data. The median is the point at which half the
units sold for more and half for less.
$4,500 Mortgage Payment
The monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced apartment,
assuming a 20 percent down payment, would be $4,543 at 6.7
percent, the average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage
during the second quarter as reported by Freddie Mac. That puts
Manhattan ahead of San Francisco, the second-highest-priced
market with a median condominium price of $680,000, according to
John Karevoll of DataQuick Information Systems, a real estate
research company in San Diego, California.
The U.S. median home price, including single-family houses,
co-ops and condominiums, was $218,700 in the first quarter of
2006, the latest data available, according to the National
Association of Realtors in Washington.
In New York, an increase in sales in the quarter of smaller
condominiums in new buildings such as Orion on West 42nd Street
and Lion's Head on West 19th Street reduced the average condo
unit size 11 percent to 1,045 square feet, said Gregory Hyem,
chief economist of Brown Harris Stevens, a Manhattan brokerage
that issued a separate report today. He said he couldn't provide
an average co-op size as those deals are not disclosed publicly.
Shrinking Condos
``We saw an abundance of studio and one-bedroom units that
closed during the quarter, many located in areas that aren't
traditionally strong condo markets, such as the West 40s and
West 20s,'' said Hyem, referring to the area between the Theater
District and Greenwich Village, on the lower west side of the
island.
For all units, the so-called listing discount, or
difference between listing and selling price, doubled from a
year earlier to 3.5 percent as demand waned, Miller said.
--Editor: Edelman |
Virtual It Girl
Citizen
Username: Shh
Post Number: 4694
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, July 6, 2006 - 1:43 pm: |
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Bob, I guess you might be right, but our thinking was that serious buyers would come out. I think we had about 37 realtors for the realtor open house, and opted not to do an open house for the public. I didn't want non-serious browsers to traipse through and figured that would be dead on a holiday weekend. We had plans so it wasn't inconvenient to have people come through, and a handful did. It was enough though, so let's hope all goes well from here on out!
Me&, I don't know what to make of it but we were priced differently. |
Mummite
Citizen
Username: Mummite
Post Number: 276
Registered: 6-2003
| | Posted on Friday, July 7, 2006 - 3:10 pm: |
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We just got the Maplewood sales report for June 2006. There's about 38 houses been sold in MW alone this month, about half of which were on the market for less than a month, and more than half sold within 10k of listing price.
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Oregon gal
Citizen
Username: Oregon_gal
Post Number: 51
Registered: 6-2006
| | Posted on Friday, July 7, 2006 - 10:48 pm: |
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My stomach feels a little better. Now, must go back to packing...must stay away from MOL... |
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