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SOrising
Citizen
Username: Sorising
Post Number: 45
Registered: 2-2006
| | Posted on Tuesday, March 7, 2006 - 9:21 am: | 
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I heard on CSPAN this morning that the Avian flu is expected to arrive in the US via Alaskan and Canadian flyways this May or June, July at the latest. It said that most of the money the government has spent preparing for it has been poorly spent. Specifically, few to no local public health plans have been developed and an enormous amount of money has gone into stockpiling Tamiflu (sp?) vaccine. A recent article in the Lancet (British medical journal) indicates that Tamiflu not only is ineffective against Avian flu but could be a public health disaster by actually strengthening the Avian virus and weakening people’s resistance to it.
Can anyone who knows please let us know what Maplewood’s public health plan is for dealing with the arrival of Avian flu in the US, from the north, within a few months? If any medical personnel read this, could you please advise us what should be done from a public health standpoint and in view of the increased risk from Tamiflu vaccination?
Thank you. |
kathleen
Citizen
Username: Symbolic
Post Number: 458
Registered: 3-2005
| | Posted on Tuesday, March 7, 2006 - 11:38 am: |
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Avian flu is a bird disease at this point, not a human disease. It's like rabies. You won't get it unless a bird bites you (right: birds don't bite) or handle an infected bird. That said, if avian flu does reach the New Jersey bird population, you would want to avoid duck and geese nesting areas, and especially to keep children away from them.
It is true that New Jersey and Essex County have yet to finalize the kind of plan that would be needed IF and WHEN avian flu becomes a human disease transmissable between humans. Should that event occur, local health and other public agencies are likely to be overwhelmed by not only the needs of flu victims, but panic in the general public.
The person who can most comprehensively answer your questions is Robert Roe, Maplewood's excellent public health officer. |
The Libertarian
Citizen
Username: Local_1_crew
Post Number: 1643
Registered: 3-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, March 7, 2006 - 3:46 pm: |
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this is so much media hype that it is laughable. remember SARS?
more people died from lightning strikes last year than people from bird flu.
dont get me wrong, we are way due for a good flu pandemic, but this aint it. |
dave23
Citizen
Username: Dave23
Post Number: 1435
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, March 7, 2006 - 4:17 pm: |
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I think panic is the best course of action. |
Dogbert
Citizen
Username: Dogbert
Post Number: 27
Registered: 1-2006
| | Posted on Tuesday, March 7, 2006 - 4:52 pm: |
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dave23 has a point. Thr township should organize a panic committee so that it doesn't happen haphazardly. |
Jersey Boy
Citizen
Username: Jersey_boy
Post Number: 302
Registered: 1-2006
| | Posted on Wednesday, March 8, 2006 - 7:54 am: |
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Tamiflu is not a vaccine. It is a medicine that reduces the symptoms (by 30%) and duration (by 1 1/2 days) of Influenza.
Out of desperation it has been used in those in the process of sucumbing to avian bird flu, with about 50% mortality as a consequence/benefit.
Basically, you should only be administered Tamiflu for avian bird flu if you're diagnosed with it by a doctor, and probably you'll be fighting for your life in an ICU.
I went to a Newcomer's Meeting, where the guest speaker was a doctor who recommended everyone get a prescription of Tamiflu "just in case." This is pure bunk. If anyone who has Tamiflu now actually contracts avian bird flu, they'll likely be in the hospital before they can take their Tamiflu, and once they arrive the doctor's will say, "sorry, we don't have any here because of all of the jackasses who bought it and are hiding it in their homes."
The makers of Tamiflu have actually restricted it's distribution to control the panicy patients and their quacky doctors from taking all of the Tamiflu out of circulation.
J.B. |
SOrising
Citizen
Username: Sorising
Post Number: 67
Registered: 2-2006
| | Posted on Wednesday, March 8, 2006 - 10:54 am: |
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A recent article in the Lancet, a British medical journal, indicates that taking Tamiflu can weaken people's resistance to avian flu and help its spread throughout the population. Tamiflu is now believed to have the exact opposite effect of what it previously was thought to have had. Anyone who has taken it or who takes it prophylactically not only injures themselves but helps avian flu spread to others. Yet many people still think Tamiflu will help instead of worsen peoples resistance to avian flu. |
susan1014
Supporter
Username: Susan1014
Post Number: 1406
Registered: 3-2002
| | Posted on Wednesday, March 8, 2006 - 2:03 pm: |
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Have you read the Lancet article, or are you still quoting what you heard on CSPAN? Who was the CSPAN speaker?
Haven't had time to research it yet, but not sure that you are getting the science quite right. |
max weisenfeld
Citizen
Username: Max_weisenfeld
Post Number: 24
Registered: 9-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, March 8, 2006 - 2:10 pm: |
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For what it is worth, I have been unable to find the article referenced in the Lancet. That is not to imply it does not exist, just that I cannot reference the article directly. That said, I think, from what I have read recently, there needs to be a slight correction here.
Tamiflu does NOT increase the virulence of avian flu. What I believe the report refers to is that Avian Flu, specifically H5N1, is showing a developing resistance to Tamiflu. Just as the incorrect use of antibiotics is creating greater drug resistance among some strains of TB and many infections, this reduces the effectiveness of the treatment, but does not affect the unmediated course of the illness (it does not make it "worse").
Tamiflu is still a valid treatment option, just less often effective. |
Jersey Boy
Citizen
Username: Jersey_boy
Post Number: 303
Registered: 1-2006
| | Posted on Wednesday, March 8, 2006 - 3:02 pm: |
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CNN's article:
http://www.cnn.com/HEALTH/library/DS/00566.html
Resistance, not making illness worse.
J.B. |
Prescott Perez-Fox
Citizen
Username: Scottperezfox
Post Number: 7
Registered: 3-2005
| | Posted on Friday, March 10, 2006 - 8:50 pm: |
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Have no fear, the US has excellent public health services to go with its brilliant national health service.
Oh wait! I was thinking of Finland! |
Kathy Leventhal
Citizen
Username: Kml
Post Number: 62
Registered: 9-2001
| | Posted on Friday, March 10, 2006 - 11:05 pm: |
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Maplewood's Health Officer is meeting with state and county public health officials to formulate plans to protect from the spread of the avian flu.
It is important to understand what is and what is not a hazard with regards to the avian flu. At present, this flu primarily affects and has spread among birds. It has only secondarily affected humans, cats and some other animals that have come into close contact with respiratory secretions, feces, and possibly blood of infected birds. Thus, precautions should be directed towards reducing this type of exposure.
For more authoritative information, our Health Officer, Bob Roe recommends visiting the CDC website at http://www.cdc.gov.
Mr. Roe is also available at 973-762-8120 x4440 or at healthofficer@twp.maplewood.nj.us
Sincerely,
Kathy Leventhal
Maplewood Township Committee
and Board of Health Chairperson
973-378-9897 |
SOrising
Citizen
Username: Sorising
Post Number: 85
Registered: 2-2006
| | Posted on Monday, March 13, 2006 - 8:00 am: |
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Thank you for many helpful remarks. M. Weisenfeld, its sounds like you may have checked The Lancet's website at (www.thelancet.com). The only thing I turned up there searching both "Tamiflu" and "avian flu" that was recent may be this: "Oseltamivir resistance raises bird flu concerns" by Pilcher H. It was published last month. I could not obtain a copy of the article without a subscription. (If anyone can eliminate this article as that referenced in the CSPAN report, please do so.)
If this is not the article referenced by the CSPAN reporter, she may have been referencing a forthcoming article. I may try to do a little digging on the CSPAN website to see if I can find out anything further. (Others attempts are also welcomed.)
I at least comprehended the (CSPAN) report in a manner analogous to the way that current antibiotics interact with TB and any number of other diseases, especially in this overly medicated country. My understanding of those processes (the “superbug” phenomenon that already appears in various forms in hospitals around the country) has been that the bacteria or viruses themselves are strengthened by repeated encounters with systematically introduced antibacterial/antiviral agents. Hence, I believe the report claimed that H5N1 actually is strengthened by exposure to Tamiflu. For this reason, its use, at best, is a catch-22: if it provides temporary relief early for select individuals, longer term (which may not be long but short) and for others, it provokes a more virulent strain throughout the population. By this understanding, use of Tamiflu, in other instances, may also have no beneficial effects whatsoever but only detrimental effects. If I understood her correctly, the reporter claimed that the widespread, panicky reliance on Tamiflu would be disastrous for these kinds of reasons and that the enormous amount of money the government has spent on stockpiling Tamiflu is multiply mistaken: first because the stockpiling took resources from more prudent, effective and needed responses; second because the easy and widespread use of Tamiflu would hasten the intensity and virulence of H5N1 and its mutating successors that may eventually be transmissible from human to human; third, because it provides a sense of false confidence throughout the culture, both on the part of those responsible for the error and having to operate as medical personnel in its aftermath and also on the part of those who depend for treatment upon them.
I also believe the reporter may have hoped her report might actually benefit preparedness for the arrival of H5N1 and its successors in this country. I do not believe she was attempting to maliciously frighten the public with inflammatory conjecture and baseless rumour.
Ms. Leventhal, I think everyone would benefit if you might persuade Mr. Roe (and your town's elected officials) to bring South Orange's health officier under the protective wing of responsible governance, a condition that may not obtain at the moment.
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SOrising
Citizen
Username: Sorising
Post Number: 86
Registered: 2-2006
| | Posted on Monday, March 13, 2006 - 8:39 am: |
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Sometimes, you get lucky. Here is the report I heard. A video link to it can be found on CSPAN's website (www.cspan.org, I think). Now, if I can just get it to work on my computer...
"Laurie Garrett, Senior Fellow for Global Health, Council on Foreign Relations discusses U.S. and international efforts to prepare for and combat avian flu. U.S. health officials announced plans on Monday to develop a second vaccine to protect people from bird flu because the virus spreading among birds in Asia, Africa and Europe is changing.
3/7/2006: WASHINGTON, DC: 45 min."
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Kathy Leventhal
Citizen
Username: Kml
Post Number: 63
Registered: 9-2001
| | Posted on Monday, March 13, 2006 - 4:08 pm: |
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Please know that Mr. John Festa, South Orange's Health Officer is involved in the same discussions as Mr. Bob Roe is with the state and county public health officials about safety preparation for the avian flu.
Kathy Leventhal
Maplewood Township Committee
973-378-9897 |
Eats Shoots & Leaves
Citizen
Username: Mfpark
Post Number: 3118
Registered: 9-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, March 15, 2006 - 9:02 am: |
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I fully understand the worry about avian flu crossing over to humans. But what can anyone do to stop it from devastating bird populations, which will be an ecological disaster and is a lot more probable than a human epidemic? Listening to the birds warbling this morning as I walked to the train, I wondered what would happen if there were so many fewer birds due to the virus. |
SOrising
Citizen
Username: Sorising
Post Number: 100
Registered: 2-2006
| | Posted on Wednesday, March 15, 2006 - 4:39 pm: |
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The virus apparently affects geese and ducks the most. Laurie Garrett made some interesting remarks in the C-SPAN video referenced above about things that could be done to protect bird populations and that have been done successfully in other countries. Among them was her suggestion that bird watchers be involved in tracking the migration of certain species known to carry the virus. This could be integrated into a field biology class in the schools in the course of teaching children what they should know about the virus. Migratory counts are conducted each spring and would be a strong community response.
But it appears there are no plans to do anything like this because local residents don't think there should be any specifically local responses and officials in South Orange, anyway, feel no obligation to communicate proactively if they even have a plan for the arrival of avian flu or not. The silence is defeaning. |
SOrising
Citizen
Username: Sorising
Post Number: 114
Registered: 2-2006
| | Posted on Saturday, March 18, 2006 - 12:06 pm: |
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Eats, Shoots and Leaves, it looks like part of the local planning is to kill Canadian Geese. A group call "GeesePeace" (www.GeasePeace.com) is recruiting people and lying about their activities. They use volunteers to kill the birds and claim that they aren't.
Why have a plan when something quick and dirty will do? |
John
Citizen
Username: Jdm
Post Number: 23
Registered: 3-2006
| | Posted on Friday, March 24, 2006 - 12:01 am: |
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In today's NYT:
The avian virus would need to accumulate many mutations in its genetic material before it could become a pandemic strain, said Yoshihiro Kawaoka, a virologist at the University of Tokyo and the University of Wisconsin.
According to a University of Wisconsin news release approved by Dr. Kawaoka, "The finding suggests that scientists and public health agencies worldwide may have more time to prepare for an eventual pandemic."
<http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/23/science/23flu.html> |
The Libertarian
Citizen
Username: Local_1_crew
Post Number: 1725
Registered: 3-2004
| | Posted on Friday, March 24, 2006 - 1:32 pm: |
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Have no fear, the US has excellent public health services to go with its brilliant national health service.
Oh wait! I was thinking of Finland!
as someone who spends 6 weeks of every year in finland, i feel confident in saying that finland aint so grand. every person i know there is desperate to get out and go to the USA to live. i am not kidding. it is a conversation i have often with the natives. |
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