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Message |
    
Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 11729
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 12:56 pm: | 
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Since the Senate primaries are virtually not contested and the Presidential primary is two years off, the conventional wisdom is that there will be a very light turnout in New Jersey for Primary Day 2006. In good old Mapleberry who is this going to help?
My fearless prediction is that this will help the insurgents more than the incumbents. First, while many people are really tired of the intermural warfare going on between the "factions" in the Democratic Party, Lester and Nancy seem to have more true believers than do Ken and Kathy. The far left, almost rabid wing, of the party seems to be made up of people who will walk through a snow storm barefooted to cast their votes and the weather today isn't that bad.
Second, looking at the recent BOE results, David Fraser and Greg Betheil (usually associated with the Huemer/DeLuca wing) did very well in much of middle and eastern Maplewood and I think this trend will continue.
Third, general dissatisifaction with politics is usually taken out on the incumbents, not the challengers.
My prediction is that Nancy will win pretty comfortably and Lester will edge out Ken in a much closer race, although I am not 100% sure of this.
I am glad I will not be around to see David Huemer become Mayor. Besides, we couldn't afford the tax increases. 
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Nohero
Supporter
Username: Nohero
Post Number: 5492
Registered: 10-1999
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 1:06 pm: |
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Bobk - Your move into the far off mountains of West Orange, has resulted in a further deterioration of whatever armchair political expertise you may have had.
You postulate the existence of a "far left, almost rabid wing, of the party", as somehow swaying the election.
You suggest that Frazer voters, in the BOE election, would not be Pettis voters. Does that include Mr. Pettis himself, who wrote an endorsment of Mr. Frazer?
See: http://www.frazerboe.com/letter.php?src=pettis
Third, if people are sick of how this election season progressed, they may just decide not to vote (even the "far left, almost rabid").
Personally, I think it's a good thing that the primary is over. I went as soon as I could this morning, to vote (although I'm not sure about the new "push button" voting machine). Now, I can enjoy going to the center of town on a Saturday morning again. |
Strawberry
Supporter
Username: Strawberry
Post Number: 7371
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 1:13 pm: |
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Notice Nohero did nothing to dispute Bobk's claim about a Huemer tax increase. |
Dave
Supporter
Username: Dave
Post Number: 9738
Registered: 4-1997
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 1:21 pm: |
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Because you can't dispute something that doesn't exist. |
Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 11730
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 1:28 pm: |
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OK, rabid might have been to strong a word. Maybe fanatical would have been better. This isn't to say that the Profetanistas aren't fanatical as well, just in a different way.
Still, I will stand by my prediction.
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Hank Zona
Supporter
Username: Hankzona
Post Number: 5654
Registered: 3-2002
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 1:35 pm: |
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My prediction:
One faction will win and while privately gloating, will decide to make a public plea for party unity that they dont really mean but figure they should because they do like one or two people in the other faction and it will make all those less political folks in town who've been complaining about the campaign feel a little better. Some may go so far as to try to form a party unity committee because thats just what we do around here -- form committees. Operatives for the winning faction will also set about strategizing how to maintain the winning edge and how to congratulate any independent candidates on their service to the town, while saying all they can under their breath to trash the independents. A petition signature challenge will shortly follow the congratulations.
The losing faction will go underground, feeling depressed, possibly even consider moving because the end of Maplewood as they know it will now be that much closer. Operatives for the losing side will pull themselves together and start to strategize about how to win back the flag. Some will go so far as to say they will work hard to now support the independent candidates.
Both factions will still refer to the other as the dark side (that each moves closer to actually becoming it seems). On Saturday mornings in the village, people who were trashing various candidates just the week before will be yucking it up and acting all friendly with them.
Basically, this Wednesday morning, regardless of how the vote goes, nothing is going to change. The stage has been set and the show we've been seeing will continue to play. Seek and support truly independent candidates if you want things to change because the chief strategists for both factions read MOL, they read their email, they listen to the people who speak to them in a reasoned (and even an unreasoned) manner who tell them enough is enough...but theyre not doing anything...they perceive the stakes to be so high, that alienating some folks and continuing to lower the bar doesnt seem to matter. |
Duncan
Supporter
Username: Duncanrogers
Post Number: 6470
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 3:42 pm: |
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my prediction..
I will wait for my wife to come home. We will take our son, and without fear of being shot, robbed or otherwise persecuted, freely vote for the people we think will best serve us. We are a lucky country, so far, in that there is no fear of being shot while on the way to vote.
Corey Booker, sadly, has his own problems and that just makes me feel that indeed ALL POLITICS ARE LOCAL.
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anon
Supporter
Username: Anon
Post Number: 2758
Registered: 6-2002
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 5:12 pm: |
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BobK:
It snows in June in West Orange? Did you know that before you moved there? |
Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 11736
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 5:29 pm: |
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Yeah, being (according to Google Earth) 526 feet above sea level our weather is different.
Actually, I am sorry about some of my comments earlier. Sometimes the Devil makes me do things, especially on 6/6/06. 
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Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 616
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 6:29 pm: |
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Kind of sad you people will be stuck watching the WWF for excitement after your primary. Perhaps you should have primaries every three months instead, and follow the "Thunderdome" model- " two go in, only one comes out".
Bread and circuses anyone? |
Hank Zona
Supporter
Username: Hankzona
Post Number: 5661
Registered: 3-2002
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 6:48 pm: |
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nah, after the primary, we'll come over to watch Millburnians try to drive on Millburn Ave. and Main St...that's always amusing/scary. |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 617
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 7:58 pm: |
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Hank-
It's always the out-of-towners, the locals just double-park.
You can always comment on our upcoming election in MSH. Sure to be a barnburner <yawn>. |
John Davenport
Citizen
Username: Jjd
Post Number: 616
Registered: 2-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 8:00 pm: |
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This primary has become a worst case scenario: as divisive as it could possibly be. We did not need this. I respect both the challenges as well as Ken and Kathy, and I really think our choice between them should have had nothing to do with who is mayor. Whoever wins needs to push forward with a referendum to let us vote directly on mayor in the future, or to establish by law a rotating mayorship. Either system would be better that our current one, which has proven harmful to our civic culture, bringing good people to do bad things in effort to control who is mayor.
I'm very sad about it! Please, please fix this absurd system!! |
Nohero
Supporter
Username: Nohero
Post Number: 5496
Registered: 10-1999
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 10:52 pm: |
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Quote:Whoever wins needs to push forward with a referendum to let us vote directly on mayor ...
I really hope that more people do not start believing this.
There is no reason to change our form of government. |
Hank Zona
Supporter
Username: Hankzona
Post Number: 5666
Registered: 3-2002
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 10:56 pm: |
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you think things are ugly now...if there is a direct mayoral election, they'll have to dig a trench to make room for how low the bar will be lowered. |
Dave
Supporter
Username: Dave
Post Number: 9750
Registered: 4-1997
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 10:59 pm: |
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...down to the Earth's core. |
Hank Zona
Supporter
Username: Hankzona
Post Number: 5667
Registered: 3-2002
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 10:59 pm: |
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seems appropriate considering the date. |
Wendy
Supporter
Username: Wendy
Post Number: 2569
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 11:10 pm: |
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Amen to the sentiments that there is no reason to change our form of government. Let's see all of that energy, political will, money and talent spent on improving services for our citizens, especially our youth. Let's see what five people who are all committed to the betterment of Maplewood (with one nominal chair of that committee called a mayor) can do to lessen the property tax burden, work with neighboring towns to share services and reduce crime. Our form of government is not broken. |
ajc
Citizen
Username: Ajc
Post Number: 5163
Registered: 9-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, June 6, 2006 - 11:59 pm: |
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"Whoever wins needs to push forward with a referendum to let us vote directly on mayor in the future, or to establish by law a rotating mayorship."
Dear John,
IMHO, this primary has become a best case scenario: it's as clear as it could possibly be. We needed this fight again to show us where the power is. I respect Ken and Kathy and how they ran their campaign. They put up a good and fair fight, and I really believe the voters made a wise choice. FWIW, as far as they were both concerned this election had nothing to do with who is mayor. However, that was never the case for Vic, Dave, and the other two...
Maybe we should have a referendum to let us vote directly on mayor in the future. However, to establish a law for rotating mayorship would be a huge mistake and harmful to our civic culture and the Democratic system.
BTW, good people don't do bad things to "become" the Mayor, or do they? Now that would be something that's really absurd!!  |
John Davenport
Citizen
Username: Jjd
Post Number: 621
Registered: 2-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 7, 2006 - 10:38 am: |
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Sorry folks, I disagree. I would bet that at least half the votes cast for each candidate were controlled by the voter's opinion on who should be mayor, and that should not be a relevant issue in this election.
I don't know why people are against direct election of mayor -- let's put all the ugliness in one election if you like. But if you don't like that system, then let's enact an ordinance that establishes a three-year rotation of mayor, or gives the mayorship to the most senior member of the Town Committee who has not recently served as mayor for three years (or as long as her or her term lasts). This law might be a bit complicated, but it could be done. I don't care whether it is rotation or direct election. But anything is better than the parliamentary system where the majority of the Town Committee appoints one of its own to be mayor. |
Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 624
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 7, 2006 - 10:54 am: |
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Bob K-
I think they are now going to take you to the political prognosticator woodshed.
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Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 11751
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 7, 2006 - 11:13 am: |
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I was having a bad day yesterday and my crystal ball was a little cloudy. It was telling me that Ms. Adams (who is highly qualified for the TC by the way) was going to win and win fairly substantially. My model didn't factor in the point John Davenport brought up about people really voting for Mayor instead of TC memebers.
Still, I did figure out Ken would get more votes than Kathy. Still I am sure that there will be a recount (difficult with the new equiptment) and I don't know if the absentee votes have been counted or not.
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Factvsfiction
Citizen
Username: Factvsfiction
Post Number: 629
Registered: 4-2006
| | Posted on Wednesday, June 7, 2006 - 11:28 am: |
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Bob K-
Sorry guy but---
don't expect an invite to be a CNN political analyst or to be invited on "Hardball" anytime soon.
If you want to regain some momentum forcast a democratic victory in Maplewood in the fall.  |
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