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Spitz
Supporter
Username: Doublea
Post Number: 1595
Registered: 3-2003
| | Posted on Friday, March 24, 2006 - 4:07 pm: | 
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Here's an interesting research piece by the Otteau Appraisal Group. They look at sales trends in the individual towns in N.J. (Bob K - This is the kind of stuff that you live for.)
http://www.otteau.com/The_Otteau_Report/the_otteau_report.html |
SOrising
Citizen
Username: Sorising
Post Number: 163
Registered: 2-2006
| | Posted on Saturday, March 25, 2006 - 3:25 pm: |
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Thanks, Spitz. Interesting. |
Spitz
Supporter
Username: Doublea
Post Number: 1611
Registered: 3-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, March 26, 2006 - 1:49 pm: |
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It is an interesting report. For those who haven't looked at it, probably the most interesting number to look at is the "Supply/Demand Ratio." SO had a ratio of 75% for fourth quarter of 2005 vs. 102% in 2004. Maplwood had a ratio of 84% in fourth quarter 2005 vs. 136% !!!! in 2004. (exclamation points mine). Montclair is holding up very well at 90% for 2005 vs. 94% for 2004.
At 75%, SO is at about the average for Essex County, which actually is still doing quite well.
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SOrising
Citizen
Username: Sorising
Post Number: 166
Registered: 2-2006
| | Posted on Monday, March 27, 2006 - 12:06 pm: |
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But then the village president’s habitual claims that the development pits in town increase property values, given the findings of this study, really aren’t credible, are they?
If according to the study, demand for housing in SO is more or less the same as throughout Essex County, the Midtown Express may actually be propping up property values to keep them even with the rest of the county, while proliferating construction pits and their phantom revenues, increasing debt and taxes depress them. At some point, the ME may not be able to keep up appearances.
What do you think, Spitz? Anyone? |
peteglider
Citizen
Username: Peteglider
Post Number: 1876
Registered: 8-2002
| | Posted on Monday, March 27, 2006 - 12:16 pm: |
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To make those assertions, SO Rising, I don't think are possible from the report.
It does not take into account home price -- either comparitively from year to year or more importantly, for this discussion, from town to town.
Towns with more, higher priced properties, may be hit harder for instance, than towns with mid-ranged properties.
The trends are pretty consistent from year to year, which is reasasuring. Does't appear that the bottom is dropping out of real estate in this area at least!
(lastly -- it doesn't track listing vs actual price -- which might shed some more light on this matter!)
Pete |
Spitz
Supporter
Username: Doublea
Post Number: 1615
Registered: 3-2003
| | Posted on Monday, March 27, 2006 - 12:45 pm: |
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pete - I was hoping you would particpate in this discussion, knowing your background. It would be nice to hear from others to get some kind of objectivity. At this point, I'm somewhat ambivalent as to what conclusions to draw. As far as price, Montclair seems to be in a world of its own. Prices certainly don't seem to be effecting sales.
On the other hand, Millburn is showing about the same rate of decline as SO. The Millburn/SH market, particularly SH, did go completely crazy, with $1million tear-downs, and I guess the Millburn/SH market is showing this.
In general, when there is a decline in housing activity, the first sign is a build up in inventory, and it takes longer to sell a house. Price delines usually don't take place until those things occur.
I think what I am most concerned about is that when interest rates were at all-time lows, buyers were willing to pay these prices in SO with the high taxes because they were able to get more house for their money even with(or because of) the higher taxes. Buyers were just looking at their total monthly payment. With interest rates rising, and a least a slowdown in price increases due to the mere fact of falling on their own weight, because incomes are not keeping up with price increases, I think that SO's high taxes may indeed affect the sale of houses more than it has in recent years.
Even in comparison to Maplewood, the average property tax in SO is $2000 more than Maplewood. Yes, the average price of a house in Maplewood is less than SO, but that spread has been narrowing in recent years. |
Josh Holtz
Citizen
Username: Jholtz
Post Number: 349
Registered: 4-2004
| | Posted on Monday, March 27, 2006 - 12:45 pm: |
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I like the supply/demand ratio but like Pete suggested I would love to see some sort of percentage of asking price to selling price. That way you could see if overbidding is occuring within a certain town - which is the true definitive nowadays of desirability. |
Spitz
Supporter
Username: Doublea
Post Number: 1616
Registered: 3-2003
| | Posted on Monday, March 27, 2006 - 1:13 pm: |
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First, in response to SOrsing, yes, I think it's all about the midtown express.
Josh and pete - Certainly we are still doing extremely well, and the fact is that Essex Couty is doing much better than a lot of other counties. The supply demand ratio is an early warning sign. It can also signal demand to the upside.
Many people feel that rather than seeing a burst in the bubble, there may just be some hissing, which will bring price increases back down to a more historical level.
ps - If you need confirmation of the effect of the Midtown Express, take a look at Bloomfield. |
Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 11069
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Monday, March 27, 2006 - 2:44 pm: |
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Both Millburn and South Orange are due for revaluations. Can this be a factor in the equation? I know I would be hesitant to buy a house if there was a real possibility that the taxes would go up 25% to 75% the next year. |
Spitz
Supporter
Username: Doublea
Post Number: 1618
Registered: 3-2003
| | Posted on Monday, March 27, 2006 - 2:51 pm: |
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There seem to be some people in Millburn who think this is the reason. I posted the link to the Otteau Report on the Millburn thread, since there had already been a discussion going on about housing prices and sales. |
davel
Citizen
Username: Davel
Post Number: 129
Registered: 6-2001
| | Posted on Monday, March 27, 2006 - 2:56 pm: |
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Some in Maplewood feared the market would cool locally after the reeval - just the opposite was true. Of course market conditions are different now - but that is part of the point; other factors are much more important. |
Bob K
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 11070
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Monday, March 27, 2006 - 3:15 pm: |
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The Maplewood reval is a classic chicken and egg scenario in my opinion anyway.
Prior to the reval housing prices were appreciating fastest in the areas within walking distance to the train station. After the reval, housing prices to the west of the train station, especially west of Ridgewood Road, appreciated at a slower rate than houses located in Hilton (where taxes went down) and most people consider it to far to walk to the train. My personal opinion is that assessment changes ultimately determine appreciation. |
Josh Holtz
Citizen
Username: Jholtz
Post Number: 355
Registered: 4-2004
| | Posted on Monday, March 27, 2006 - 3:44 pm: |
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How are revals really going to impact SO? Sure certain families will move out due to increased taxes, causing a slight bump in housing supply. But are most people going to move? Where are they going to go - especially if they need to commute into the City? And are prospective buyers going to be turned off to an entire town if certain houses are affected by the reval negatively? People are moving into the quarry now and those taxes are 28k a year. I have lived all over Essex County and from a tax standpoint I can tell you that the grass isn't greener down the line. |
Kitchenguru
Citizen
Username: Kitchenguru
Post Number: 45
Registered: 9-2005
| | Posted on Monday, March 27, 2006 - 9:23 pm: |
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Believe it or not lots people move to South Orange for the personality of the town and not the train. Montclair's boom started long before they had the direct train line. South Orange is the next best thing to Montclair if you are looking for a certain energy that you cannot get from the other towns in Essex County. I moved here from Montclair because I preferred the school system here.
I am very pleased with my two my Columbia H.S. graduates (the younger one is a junior at Dartmouth). |
Josh Holtz
Citizen
Username: Jholtz
Post Number: 357
Registered: 4-2004
| | Posted on Monday, March 27, 2006 - 11:37 pm: |
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Kitchenguru: I agree that South Orange is a great place to live. In fact I believe the dynamics in Montclair has changed so much in recent years that the town has lost that personality that it once had. South Orange reminds me of what Montclair used to be.
Also Montclair's boom started not too long ago. In fact, Montclair was having serious issues in the mid-90's and the boom really started after it was announced that the direct train was going into the town. |
Kitchenguru
Citizen
Username: Kitchenguru
Post Number: 47
Registered: 9-2005
| | Posted on Tuesday, March 28, 2006 - 12:20 am: |
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Josh,
I sometimes miss Monclair and in fact go there for dinner often. But's always nice to come home. It feels too urban in Montclair. The better homes are in the remote areas far from businesses and services. There is a lack of community there due to the size, layout and great disparities socio-economically.
Bloomfield Ave is really turning around, getting better restaurants and boutique businesses. I know this is in our future here if we all work together.
Someday South Orange will be a national model for all the best a community can offer without elitism. |
Josh Holtz
Citizen
Username: Jholtz
Post Number: 358
Registered: 4-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, March 28, 2006 - 7:25 am: |
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Kitchen: I couldn't agree more about Montclair. I went to high school there and bought our 1st house there in '98-'99. There was always money but not elitism. While it was always a large town it felt cozy. Unfortunately both are not true today. Every street became a thru street. When walking through town people/strangers stopped saying hello. It just became too much City for us. After three houses there we moved to South Orange. We love this town but it really needs fresh blood at the top government levels. I, along with everyone here, see the potential of a sweet downtown, completely accessible by many residential areas. |
Kitchenguru
Citizen
Username: Kitchenguru
Post Number: 48
Registered: 9-2005
| | Posted on Tuesday, March 28, 2006 - 10:24 am: |
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Josh,
I think Montclair's past negative issues were mainly due to the HS. I don't believe that has changed very much. There are quite a few private schools serving the area and a large percentage of the people can pay the high taxes and school fees as well. I actually sent my younger child to Montclair Kimberley Academy while I lived there and my older one to a school in NYC.
Although doing very well,my children didn't like the elitism at the schools,plus all the mindless busywork. When I checked around for schools many of the MKA students were going to HS in South Orange/Maplewood and later more of them went to Ivy league schools from Columbia than MKA. The NYC prep school's college advisor(very respected--top 5 in NY) told me grades from a good public school such as Columbia ranked higher to college admissions people than private high school grades which can be consumer driven. I didn't read any stats about Montclair, just the crime stories in the newspaper, then visited the school and just didn't like what I saw. I spoke to teachers around this area and so many told me Columbia was great for so many reasons I was sold. I like the cohesiveness of the two towns and the different personalities. I don't commute to NYC to work and neither does my husband but we do live in walking distance of the train, HS and downtown. When I move again I will buy here and the train will not be a factor then either, in fact I always drive to NYC--hate trains--grew up on NYC subways. |
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