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magmasystems
Citizen
Username: Magmasystems
Post Number: 180
Registered: 1-2002
| | Posted on Thursday, January 15, 2004 - 1:29 pm: |     |
As the industry grows to maturity, you can expect the planners to look for execution skills in the lowest cost locations, just as they do in manufacturing.
And I think that young people realize this. Enrollment in computer science degree programs is way down in this country. I would not encourage my children to major in information technology, although I would encourage them to take one or two programming courses as I would encourage them to take a biology or chemistry course.
The US used to be the undisputed leader in information technology, both in terms of innovation and number of workers. In 1999/2000, before the dotcom explosion, we couldn't get enough of it.
The fact that the US is abandoning an entire discipline is shocking and scary, especially since it is a discipline that we were at the forefront of. It makes you think that there is not a single discipline that is safe.
(How about medicine? We have already seen that MRI's can be read overseas. Do you recall hearing about the robotic surgeon? The doctor, who can be thousands of miles away, can operate on a patient using robots. This is real technology, and was being used on the battlefield where the supply of surgeons is scarce. The potential for outsourcing surgical operations to the lowest bidder exists because of advances in technology, just like advances in communication bandwidth enables computer work to be performed anywhere.)
It's not a matter of CAN it be done. Of course it can. The question is SHOULD it be done. Do corporations have a committment to workers who contribute to the US economy. By the way, for every US worker who is displaced, it means much needed tax revenue is displaced as well. Witness New Jersey's budget crisis, and think of all of those displaced workers who could be contibuting to the tax base now.
Marc
www.millburnweb.com
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Tom Reingold
Citizen
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 1760
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, January 15, 2004 - 2:21 pm: | |
cjc, you have a point. As long as you and I are doing OK, there's no point in worrying about others. Be happy.
Tom Reingold the prissy-pants
There is nothing
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bobk
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 4318
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, January 15, 2004 - 2:35 pm: | |
Actually CJC has a point. In the past economic changes led to new jobs, usually better paying than those lost.
However, even with the recovery job growth isn't catching up. Unemployment figures are only at a reasonable level because people are giving up on looking for work and taking up bank robbery or going on the dole. Where are the new jobs going to be? I find it hard to imagine any new technology or manufactured product that can't be handled off shore more cheaply than here.
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cjc
Citizen
Username: Cjc
Post Number: 715
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, January 15, 2004 - 2:48 pm: | |
Eventually handled offshore -- I agree. Then, you discover a new one after that, and after that....
Reino....spare me.
Likewise, this drivel about corporations owing something to a worker when the worker will chuck his job at the corporation as soon as a better offer comes from somewhere else. It's the equivalent of decrying the paucity of affordable housing, then when you sell your house you gouge the buyer for as much as you can get with complete disregard for the poor and low income "working families" (another insulting phrase). |
magmasystems
Citizen
Username: Magmasystems
Post Number: 181
Registered: 1-2002
| | Posted on Thursday, January 15, 2004 - 2:48 pm: | |
Unemployment figures are only at a reasonable level because people are giving up on looking for work and taking up bank robbery or going on the dole
Yes, I was going to mention that. Many people whom I know have just plain given up looking. They are tired of looking at the old, stale job requirements that are posted on the Internet at sites like Monster, Hotjobs, and Dice. After 20-30 years in the IT field, they are too old to re-train themselves and they have no other viable skill set (relying in the past my the fact that IT workers would be employable at any time).
Back in the early 1980's, while I was going for my doctorate at NYU, I taught computers at the Continuing Education school of Baruch College. There were a lot of people who were retraining themselves in the computer field. At that time, the computer field was wide open and everyone was hiring.
Now, what will people re-train themselves to do?
I love when proponents of the outsourcing movement tell us that outsourcing is good because it frees people up to concentrate on higher level thoughts. It brings up visions of the old Star Trek and the episode of the GamesKeepers of Triskillion. The outsources would have us believe that the population of the US will turn into gigantic masses of brain, thinking deep thoughts while the Proles perform all of the manual labor, like programming computers, reading MRIs, and doing our taxes.
Marc
www.millburnweb.com
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Tom Reingold
Citizen
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 1761
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, January 15, 2004 - 2:51 pm: | |
bobk, it's true that we must see the passing of the old and welcome the new, even though it causes pain to some. Still, I think a little compassion is called for, and some consideration on a large scale. If left unchecked, power and wealth accumulate among a few, which really isn't good for everyone.
Tom Reingold the prissy-pants
There is nothing
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nan
Citizen
Username: Nan
Post Number: 1109
Registered: 2-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 20, 2004 - 8:29 pm: | |
I agree. And what really makes me mad are corporations that feel they can justify shipping all the jobs oversees by bashing the U.S. Education system. As though all my jobless associates in IT would still be working if only they had studied harder in school.
The article below is featured on the Achieve (http://www.achieve.org/) website. Achieve, founded by IBM's Lou Gerstner, seeks to reform public schools in to the corporate image, and is packaged as the "Standards" Movement. Right above the link to the below article they have a paragraph that says,
Imagine. A public school system where every student in every school is held to high expectations and provided the tools to achieve them. Where hard work is encouraged and achievement is rewarded. Where a challenging curriculum and excellent teaching ensure that every high school graduate has the knowledge and skills essential to succeed in today's increasingly competitive world.
And then you wonder what knowlege and skills they are talking about when you read the article listed right below:
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Tech bosses defend overseas hiring
Intel, HP chiefs warn that U.S. needs to improve education system
Washington -- Two leading Silicon Valley chief executives, reacting Wednesday
to criticism they've shipped too many high-tech jobs overseas, defended hiring
workers in India and China and warned that the United States and particularly
California were in danger of losing their competitive edge to the Far East.
"There is no job that is America's God-given right anymore," said Carly Fiorina,
chairman of Palo Alto information technology giant Hewlett Packard.
The comments came as part of the tech industry's counteroffensive against
intensifying criticism about the export of high-tech jobs.
Fiorina warned against the growing protectionist backlash, saying the only
alternative to losing jobs overseas was to make a national decision to stay
ahead of foreign competitors by improving grade-school education, doubling
federal spending on basic research and forming a national broadband policy, as
Japan and Korea have done.
Craig Barrett, head of Santa Clara chipmaker Intel Corp., declared that the
world had arrived at a rare "strategic inflection point" where nearly half its
population -- living in China, India and Russia -- had been integrated into the
global market economy, many of them highly educated workers "who can do just
about any job in the world."
"We're talking about 3 billion people," Barrett said, more than 10 times the
U.S. population. "The U.S. has a very simple choice to make. We have to decide
if we're going to be competitive with these markets."
The two executives were representing the Computer Systems Policy Project, a
group of eight chief executives from the nation's biggest information technology
companies. The group issued a report Wednesday that raised an alarm in
Washington about U.S. high-tech competitiveness but offered an alternative to
protectionism. All these companies earn a large share of their revenues abroad
and fear trade restrictions.
At the same time, high-tech executives find themselves increasingly on the
defensive as they shift operations abroad. IBM Corp., a member of the group,
recently announced it would move nearly 5,000 highly paid programming jobs
overseas.
The exodus of high-tech jobs to India, China and elsewhere has generated rising
dismay in both parties in Congress and spawned a welter of calls for
retaliation, including from several Democratic presidential candidates, though
no legislation has yet gained ground.
Front-runner Howard Dean declared in a debate recently that the country needed a
leader who "doesn't think that big corporations who get tax cuts ought to be
able to move their headquarters to Bermuda and their jobs offshore. "
High-tech executives insist that they must use overseas workers to remain
competitive.
Fiorina and Barrett said their companies had been operating in India and China
since the 1970s. Companies that sell two-thirds of their products overseas
cannot be expected to hire all U.S. workers, they insisted, adding that their
success overseas allows them to add more highly skilled "systems- level" jobs in
the United States.
But these require highly educated workers, they stressed.
"It has been assumed that we basically have a padlock on high-tech jobs,"
Barrett said. "That's no longer the case with the enlargement of the world's
workforce and the inclusion of many, many highly educated people around the
world."
The Intel chief staunchly defended overseas hiring. "We'll put people next to
our customers," he said. "We'll make best use of the resources around the
world."
Barrett insisted that Intel was "still making massive investments in the U.S.,"
but he noted that jobs at these new facilities require two years of college
"just to walk in the door. The infrastructure and education requirements of
those jobs is forever increasing."
Fiorina warned the United States risked losing its lead in high-end products as
well.
"It's interesting to me that so many people talk about China or India or Russia
as being a source of low-cost labor," Fiorina said. "Truthfully, over the long
term, the greater threat is the source of well-educated labor. And if you look
at the number of college-educated students that China graduates every year, it's
close to 40 million. The law of large numbers is fairly compelling."
Fiorina and Barrett said the United States must make a strategic choice to
increase its competitiveness before it wakes up one day and finds it's too late.
They outlined a list of objectives, including a doubling of federal spending on
basic research in U.S. universities. Barrett derided Washington's decision to
spend as much as $40 billion a year on farm subsidies and just $5 billion on
basic research in the physical sciences.
"I have a real degree of difficulty with the fact that we are spending some five
to eight times as much on the industry of the 19th century than we are on the
industry of the 21st century," Barrett said.
The executives also urged a national broadband policy to allow more homes and
businesses to quickly take advantage of high-speed data networks, much as Japan
and Korea have done.
They also called for dramatic improvements in K-12 education in the United
States, saying schools act more to block budding math and science students than
to foster them.
They insisted that protectionism would fail, comparing the current situation to
the competitive threat from Japan in the 1980s, when U.S. corporations underwent
a painful restructuring that ultimately propelled them forward, while Germany
and France resorted to protection and fell behind.
"Short-term, protectionism always looks better and feels better," Fiorina said,
but it ultimately fails.
Barrett also blasted California as the "least competitive business environment
in the U.S. today."
The state is losing businesses to other states that are more welcoming, in much
the same way the United States is losing out overseas, he said
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Brett
Citizen
Username: Bmalibashksa
Post Number: 592
Registered: 7-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 21, 2004 - 9:46 am: | |
There is an outsourcing show in NY today. Our sister company is there showing their programming services. I know that everyone hates outsourcing so I thought I pass on that there are protestors outside. Their not really accomplishing anything but they’re there. |
Cynicalgirl
Citizen
Username: Cynicalgirl
Post Number: 335
Registered: 9-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 21, 2004 - 11:39 am: | |
There was a good article in the Atlantic this month, that included some projections and issues on this point. For instance, one might think that "high touch" jobs would be safest and most remunerative in the future (e.g. nursing, waitress, college teacher); however, the article also spoke about folks unwillingness to pay. I see this already in the local babysitting market, and I think it relates to "elasticity of demand and supply," stuff learned some years ago in economics. ANYWAY! Buy the issue; I'm doing a lousy job of explining the article and it was excellent.
Having twice lived near automotive plants: Does no one remember what happened to middle aged union guys working at Chevy, Ford etc. in the '70's? Outsourceing and our taste for smaller, Japanese cars had quite an effect. At the time, a lot of folks -- especially college educated -- were not terribly sympathetic. I see some -- not all -- of the outsourcing as related to a the old supply/demand. If "we" weren't so expensive, some of this might not be happening.
Personally, I've been downsized, changed my training, career, you name it more than once and I feel inured. Things change. You re-invent yourself, sometimes towards a lesser paid career, sometimes not. Same thing has happened to my husband. I'm not saying I'm always happy about having to re-invent, but it's part of life (she said, eyes wide open and looking at 50, 10 jobs, 3 degrees and about 15 bosses into her "career." |
mfpark
Citizen
Username: Mfpark
Post Number: 182
Registered: 9-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 21, 2004 - 12:20 pm: | |
I'd like to know what it is really like to get laid.........D'oh! |
magmasystems
Citizen
Username: Magmasystems
Post Number: 186
Registered: 1-2002
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 21, 2004 - 3:30 pm: | |
If "we" weren't so expensive, some of this might not be happening.
I have an idea. I will accept 1/4 of what I get now if Fleet will reduce my mortgage by 75% too and Shoprite slashes their prices by 75%.
How did we get so expensive? In my case, I started out in 1984 at a company making $30,000. I developed a word processor for the company which made it a substantial amount of money. So, I figured that, when I got my next job, I would ask a little more. They gave me $45,000, and in turn, I helped to develop a database product which earned them tens of millions. Then, on and on it goes. Now, I know ten times as much as I did in 1985, and I have developed a lot of products. Should I have put a cap on my earnings? Unlike a lot of the auto workers, I have had to continually upgrade my skills (at my own expense and time), take certification tests, etc.
The gap between the upper class and the lower and former middle classes is widening. All of the financial institutions are reporting record earnings this week. Merrill Lynch, who has laid off thousands upon thousands of people, just reported record earnings. Do you think that they can now afford to re-hire some of those software developers who worked 20 years for the company? Where is all of that record profit going?
Marc
www.millburnweb.com
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Cynicalgirl
Citizen
Username: Cynicalgirl
Post Number: 336
Registered: 9-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 21, 2004 - 7:23 pm: | |
I'm not downplaying at all what you have accomplished magmasystems. Nor what I have, if different. But loyalty is outta the picture private sector and not for profit and has been. Yes, I think some parts of IT have been overpaid compared to other options. Personally, I can't even go to the whole CEO level compensation. Not even on my horizon. Too philosophical and impossible for me to contemplate. All I am saying, is that I do think IT has been overpaid. In the broader sense, has the middle class been screwed? Of course, all sectors, all of the time, every day of the week. My "solution" has been to suck it up and retrain, and repackage and laugh darkly at people in their 30's and 40's who think it won't happen to them.
I don't give a damn where record profit is going. I don't give a damn about big politics. I care about how my family and my immediate confreres are weathering the storm. And any politician or loudmouth who says he or she can fix it is utterly full of ka-ka. It isn't a meritocracy, and it never has been. Some folks were just making out well, for awhile. |
magmasystems
Citizen
Username: Magmasystems
Post Number: 187
Registered: 1-2002
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 21, 2004 - 8:16 pm: | |
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040121/na_fin_us_outsourcing_conference_2.html |
Cynicalgirl
Citizen
Username: Cynicalgirl
Post Number: 337
Registered: 9-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, January 22, 2004 - 4:38 am: | |
Some of the Atlantic Monthly articles are on their site, for the current issue. Here's the one called "Are We Still a Middle Class Nation" that I was mangling in a previous post:
http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2004/01/lind.htm
I thought it was pretty good, and I think, magmasystems, hits some of your points. I'm also sorry if I sounded mean previously. Just been living some of this for a little while, along with a certain level of age/income discrimination (what kind of a coincidence when a whole lot of 40 yr old people of a certain level in a non-profit higher ed setting are laid off?). The seeds of the "cynical" part of my username lay in such experiences. I now view myself as entirely a free agent (though employed) with no guarantees, ever. Between CEOs doing what they will, a younger and/or more Republican electorate interested in privatizing social security, well, I'm just feeling that one really shouldn't count on anyone or anything to last indefinitely (or even till I'm 65!).
I do often think I should encouage my kid to be a plumber or something, with an mba on the side. |
magmasystems
Citizen
Username: Magmasystems
Post Number: 188
Registered: 1-2002
| | Posted on Thursday, January 22, 2004 - 6:09 am: | |
I do often think I should encouage my kid to be a plumber or something, with an mba on the side.
The positive side is that this "workforce rebalancing" is happening to us in the latter half of our working lifetime. My son will be going to college in 3 1/2 years, and I am glad that the destruction of the American IT worker is happening before he goes to college, commits to a major field of study, goes to grad school, etc. I will certainly keep him (and my daughter) away from the following endangered fields:
1) Information Technology
2) Accounting
3) Radiology
4) Stock Analyst
Marc
www.millburnweb.com
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overtaxdalready
Citizen
Username: Overtaxdalready
Post Number: 185
Registered: 6-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, January 22, 2004 - 10:16 am: | |
Recently I read (of course I can't remember where the article was) that Engineers will be in great demand in the coming years.
And magma, if you think Accounting is an "endangered field", then you've never heard of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. |
magmasystems
Citizen
Username: Magmasystems
Post Number: 192
Registered: 1-2002
| | Posted on Thursday, January 22, 2004 - 11:32 am: | |
And magma, if you think Accounting is an "endangered field", then you've never heard of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.
I sure have heard of S-O. But, nevertheless, it has been well documented that number crunching accounting functions are being sent overseas. The "60 Minutes" segment on outsourcing several weeks ago detailed a company called SureTax, who handles the completion of US Tax returns from India. Anything that involves pure number crunching is subject to overseas outsourcing. And that includes financial analysis.
Of course, this would not replace the CPA who specializes in face-to-face contact.
And, be careful when you read articles which talk about the increase in demand for a certain profession. Some of these articles are written by lobbying groups and trade organizations who favor outsourcing.
Another link that I found yesterday:
http://www.toraw.org/INTHENEWS.htm
Marc
www.millburnweb.com
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nan
Citizen
Username: Nan
Post Number: 1116
Registered: 2-2001
| | Posted on Friday, January 23, 2004 - 7:29 pm: | |
Cynical girl,
I just don't see this as another storm to be weathered--what kind of opportunities are our kids going to have when they get out of college?
It really galls me that a corporate organization such as Achieve uses public schools as the scapegoat for horrendous policies. Guess who got hired in NJ to review and recommend what our educational standards should be in the first place? Achieve! http://www.state.nj.us/njded/news/2000/1207gov.htm
So, here we are in NJ implementing the "high standards" set by Achieve and being told that our schools don't cut the mustard--so it's hi ho hi ho off to India we go. . .
(I've got Marshall Crenshaw blasting on the stereo in your honor--guess which most appropriate song is playing as I'm typing this?)
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sac
Citizen
Username: Sac
Post Number: 883
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Friday, January 23, 2004 - 11:05 pm: | |
Has anyone figured out what the lost income tax revenue impact will be at State and Federal levels? That should get somebody in government worried. Seems like US Corporations should have to make up some portion of the difference (albeit possibly at the lower salary levels) if they are profiting here from workers who do not contribute any tax dollars to US coffers.
And, although the foreign workers probably don't see it that way currently, considering the alternatives in many of their countries' homegrown jobs, it still seems like exploitation to me. A white collar, higher income sweatshop perhaps?
Losing my IT job (which hasn't happened yet, but probably will at some point), may turn out to be the best thing that could happen to me ... by forcing me to find new work in areas more fulfilling (at least personally, if not financially), so I'm not panicking over it at this point. But something isn't right about the whole thing ... |
Cynicalgirl
Citizen
Username: Cynicalgirl
Post Number: 348
Registered: 9-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, January 24, 2004 - 10:41 am: | |
nan, I, too, think the talk about education levels as the reason is crap. What I would begin to buy is work ethic (note the "begin"). But, I don't even think that's it. I think it's a combination of unchecked corporate greed, and the laws that allow it, along with the ol' globalization -- which isn't going away. I also think there's a piece of high level, ignorant MBA-ness or worse. For example, where I work (and I'm sure it's similar elsewhere), you have high-level green eyeshade guys asking high level CIO/CTO guys whether outsourcing in these ways will work (that is, deliver the same quality of work at a lower cost). I HAVE SELDOM SEEN REALLY GOOD COST ACCOUNTANTS IN CIO OFFICES! They do not really even know the cost of the work with understanding, and they are making the decisions. Corporations are so afraid of doing an off with their head (for fear all the systems will come down) that they go along with it. So, IMHO, you have the blind leading the stupid to some of these decisions. And then later, they begin to bring some of the work back, but to N Dakota or something where the wage is lower.
That said, I do think there's room for salary adjustment in IT, and I do think we were all on a wild ride for awhile that was destined to adjust.
And I don't think the Dems or the Republicans have any sense on this topic, at the highest levels. As with Bulworth, I don't think they care. I, too, don't think US corps should be able to shift headquarters to Bermuda or whatever to avoid tax. I just don't think the rich guys on either side give a good God damned....
MARSHALL CRENSHAW ROCKS!!! I also love Nick Lowe, and Marianne Faithful... |
Tom Reingold
Citizen
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 1849
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, January 24, 2004 - 2:33 pm: | |
About your plumber problem, perhaps it would have been better to try to negotiate, though I understand it might not have worked. Once he's delivered services, you don't have a right not to pay, and he had a right to sue you for it. You probably need to know what the rate is before he comes in.
Tom Reingold the prissy-pants
There is nothing
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nan
Citizen
Username: Nan
Post Number: 1118
Registered: 2-2001
| | Posted on Saturday, January 24, 2004 - 7:07 pm: | |
sac,
I'm in the same position as you--can anticipate life after IT--but I see people who cannot and it troubles me. It's created some discussions and tensions at work that will probably increase in the future. I'm not looking forward to that.
Cynicalgirl,
I once saw Marshall Crenshaw at Central Park concert for free. He was great. My husband says he has a hard time getting recorded and does not even have a label. That's too bad (if still true).
I'm also a big Marianne Faithful fan from way back--I had her first record in the 60's where her whole face fills up the cover and they casually explain on the back that she's had a few nervous breakdowns as if to show that she was really authentic and not just Mick Jagger's girlfriend. Eventually, I guess, that strategy really worked!
I like Nick Lowe too and oh, yeah this IT business sucks and I'm really pissed at corporate America.
Great post Tom-- really heavy! |
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