| Author |
Message |
    
us2innj
Citizen
Username: Us2innj
Post Number: 566
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, March 12, 2003 - 8:36 am: |     |
....if a small to medium sized nuclear device was set off in Times Square? I suspect we are less than ten miles as the crow flies from midtown. |
jgberkeley
Supporter
Username: Jgberkeley
Post Number: 2896
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, March 12, 2003 - 9:06 am: | |
Would we be toast? Depends on what you call small to medium size. And by toast what do you mean? Blast damage, shock wave damage, initial radiation or after radiation.
The average size units used by the US and the Soviet systems are 150 Kilo tons. I'd have to look it up but I think the ones dropped in Japan were more in the size of 1 Kilo ton.
A dirty bomb would not affect more than a couple of blocks.
So it depends. |
tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 705
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, March 12, 2003 - 11:58 am: | |
probably more important than anything is which way the wind is blowing at the moment. |
jgberkeley
Supporter
Username: Jgberkeley
Post Number: 2898
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, March 12, 2003 - 1:12 pm: | |
tom,
The direction of the wind in important AFTER the moment. Long term wind direction would be a factor of after blast issues.
Initial blast shock waves and initial blast radiation from a 'real' device would not be impacted by wind direction unless it was in excess of 600 miles per hour. Even then it would only slow down the impact by seconds.
I would think the most important consideration, is not to have an event to deal with. |
ajc
Citizen
Username: Ajc
Post Number: 1018
Registered: 9-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, March 12, 2003 - 10:20 pm: | |
George,
Did I understand you right?
"The average size units used by the US and the Soviet systems are 150 Kilo tons, and the ones dropped in Japan were more in the size of 1 Kilo ton."
At tonight’s temperature, what would 600 mile per hour wind chill factor look like? Hey, anyone interested in buying a "Freedom Victorian" on Elmwood Avenue? 
|
#9Dream
Citizen
Username: 9dream
Post Number: 176
Registered: 12-2002
| | Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2003 - 11:50 am: | |
We are around 20 miles from midtown, even as the crow flies, but if 9/11 is any indicator then we're still close enough. On my way home from work that day (at 10:30 AM) I could see the smoke above, and slighty east, of the intersection of Millburn & Valley. |
tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 706
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2003 - 12:39 pm: | |
jq, i was thinking more in terms of which way the fallout would blow. pardon my lack of clarity. |
jgberkeley
Supporter
Username: Jgberkeley
Post Number: 2899
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2003 - 1:23 pm: | |
All of the time, the upper winds (jet stream) blow away from NYC toward the East. Most fallout from a ‘real’ weapon is carried by these high winds.
Most of the time the lower winds blow Eastward as well, however, they do flip. For example, a few days after 9/11, the winds flipped and we could smell the smoke and some ashes fell.
So Mostly, the fallout would blow away from us.
A dirty weapon would not reach the upper winds, and what ever material was involved would be controlled by the lower winds.
God forbid.
Art, I can look it up, but yes you read me correctly. |
jgberkeley
Supporter
Username: Jgberkeley
Post Number: 2900
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2003 - 2:19 pm: | |
Art,
Ok I looked it up. I was off a bit.
Of the two bombs dropped on Japan, the smaller one (little boy) produced a 15 kilo ton blast. (This is a tiny bomb as 150 kilo ton weapons are in vogue today) At the blast point it created winds of 980 mph, surface temperature of 7,000 degrees and a pressure wave that went up to 8,600 psi.
A mile away the wind speed dropped to 190 mph and the pressure wave dropped to 1,180 psi. The effects drop quickly as you move further away. Maplewood is about 20 miles away from the city so don’t sell your house yet.
About 50% of the bomb was expended in the winds and the pressure wave that was created and these caused the most physical damage. About 35% of the bomb went into heat generation, and about 15% went into the radiation that was generated.
Radiation has four components. Alpha and beta particles then gamma and neuron waves. At the Hiroshima site all the alpha and beta particles were absorbed in the blast area and mushroom cloud. Gamma and neutron waves went out about a ½ mile. People within about ¼ of a mile zapped with the gamma or neutron waves died in a day or two. If you were our about a ½ mile away and got zapped you died within 30 days. Beyond that gamma and neutron waves were not a major source of long term injury.
Little boy was an air blast, and exploded in the air above the city. I think it was 600 Meters high. The air blast, as opposed to the surface blast, provides for the maximum amount of energy to be focused on the target and thus the greatest effect of the weapon.
What does that mean to Maplewood? In my opinion.
If it were to happen it would be a bomb of this size or much less.
It would be a ground blast from a truck rather than an air dropped weapon.
This means the impact to Maplewood would be much smaller as more of the energy would be absorbed into the local ground and surrounding buildings.
20 miles away, we would not feel that much. IMO the upper winds will blow East and out to sea, and the most direct danger to us would be if the lower winds do shift and alpha particles are blown into the Maplewood area. Alpha particles do not penetrate the skin and can be brushed or washed off. They can become problems if breathed into the body, ingested or allowed into the body via a cut. A shirt sleeve will filter alpha particles and most basic dust masks will as well.
All in all it would not be a good day.
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ajc
Citizen
Username: Ajc
Post Number: 1024
Registered: 9-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2003 - 3:47 pm: | |
Thanks George. You're right, all in all it would not be a good day. 
|
Yang
Citizen
Username: Yang
Post Number: 7
Registered: 3-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2003 - 4:29 pm: | |
jgberkeley,
I'm guessing that you know what you are talking about. You seem to know more than you are saying. You are scaring me with all this talk of blast and particles. My question is do you really know what you are saying? How are you qualified to talk about this stuff? |
tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 709
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2003 - 5:14 pm: | |
The blast force as well as the radiation are subject to the inverse square law. At twice the distance the effect is 1/4th. At four times the distance the effect is 1/16th.
Who knows which way the wind blows? I remember once going on a 112-mile bike trip from New York to Montauk, expecting the prevailing easterly winds. What we got that day was a strong westerly headwind.
A bigger danger than the alpha particles are the radioactive isotopes of iodine, strontium, etc.-- the products of nuclear fission -- that could blow in with a layer of fallout. These are ingested into your body and replace the non-radioactive isotopes that are there. That's why potassium iodide tablets are recommended, so that you can dose up on "safe" iodine and absorb less of the dangerous kind. |
jgberkeley
Supporter
Username: Jgberkeley
Post Number: 2905
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2003 - 5:39 pm: | |
Yang,
Without going deeply into it, I used to be in the business. I served on nuclear submarines for 12 years. My job was the maintenance, repair, the flight path program and the launching of the weapons to achieve the best effect on the target. Some targets required air blasts, some surface and other sub-surface. Yes, we are able to dig holes to get to a hardened target.
|
jgberkeley
Supporter
Username: Jgberkeley
Post Number: 2906
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2003 - 5:44 pm: | |
Tom,
"the radioactive isotopes of iodine, strontium, etc.-- the products of nuclear fission --"
I agree, however, the same as alpha particles; they can be washed away and filtered out. Ingestion is the key. I'm just trying to keep this simple.
|
Chris Dickson
Citizen
Username: Ironman
Post Number: 476
Registered: 8-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2003 - 6:33 pm: | |
It's rainin' but there ain't a cloud in the sky
Musta been a tear from your eye
Everything'll be okay
Funny thought I felt a sweet summer breeze
Musta been you sighin' so deep
Don't worry we're gonna find a way
I'm waitin', waitin' on a sunny day
Gonna chase the clouds away
Waitin' on a sunny day |
Yang
Citizen
Username: Yang
Post Number: 8
Registered: 3-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2003 - 6:47 pm: | |
Submarines and nuclear weapons? How did you live with your self for 12 years, or even now? |
Redsox
Citizen
Username: Redsox
Post Number: 203
Registered: 6-2002
| | Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2003 - 8:03 pm: | |
yang,
are you a friend of paul?
|
tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 711
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2003 - 8:36 pm: | |
Yang, be fair. For decades our nuclear sub force was out there as a first-strike deterrent against the USSR. It appears to have helped. |
jgberkeley
Supporter
Username: Jgberkeley
Post Number: 2910
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, March 13, 2003 - 10:24 pm: | |
Yang,
I will take your question at face value as with 8 posts, I’ve not been able to determine your online personality. (If this question was from some MOL posters I would know what you are really asking?)
Nuclear submarines are somewhat confining, and being under water for 3 to 6 months at a time does not help. And I mean under water, never on the surface and never in a port.
As to the environment and then the job I did with some nasty stuff, I look at it this way. I loved it!
After a long training period, I started in my mid twenties, and had a vital, a trigger finger vital role in our countries most successful first-strike deterrent program against the use of nuclear weapons. I feel to this day that a lot of bad things did not happen to the world because I and thousands of others were doing what I did.
My wife keeps asking me why I still talk about it so freely, it was twenty years ago, get over it. (She was a hippie and an anti-Vietnam war protester at the same time.) My answer to her and perhaps to you is simple. In the larger scope of life, that is likely the only thing I will ever have done that has made a difference to mankind and the ongoing life of our planet. I’ll never be the President, I won’t be a Congress person, and building banking software products just does not make or break the world. It just pays better.
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us2innj
Citizen
Username: Us2innj
Post Number: 571
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Friday, March 14, 2003 - 7:21 am: | |
This reminds me of my teenage days (late 1960's), when a friend of mine, who was a very strong anti-Vietnam protester, asked my father "how could he work for Celanese". At that time, my dad worked in the computer operations in Manhattan for a (chemical) company that made Fortrel and Arnel. They very well might have made Napalm for the war effort.
The bottom line is where someone comes off asking "how could you live with yourself." Yang, you sound like some piece of work. |
Yang
Citizen
Username: Yang
Post Number: 9
Registered: 3-2003
| | Posted on Friday, March 14, 2003 - 9:16 am: | |
My use of, "how could you live with yourself" was part of question with few words. My question was regarding the ability to live in such a small space for so long. How does one keep sane, and stay sane afterwards?
I have no issues with what he did, nor did I mean to imply it.
So you can pull back the fangs. |
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