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strawberry
Citizen
Username: Strawberry
Post Number: 1469
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 25, 2003 - 3:31 pm: | 
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"The economy in the third quarter galloped ahead faster than an initial estimate, which was already the swiftest in nearly two decades. That burst, along with a surge in consumer confidence, raised hopes for the recovery's staying power.
The broadest measure of the economy's performance, gross domestic product, increased at a 8.2 percent annual rate in the July-to-September quarter, even better than the 7.2 percent rate estimated a month ago, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.
The new GDP reading -- embraced by the Bush administration as proof of the effectiveness of its economic policies -- represents the strongest growth since the first quarter of 1984, when the economy surged at a 9 percent pace. The new estimate is more than double the 3.3 percent rate in the second quarter.
"I think the economy is back," declared an optimistic Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. "It has evolved from a very fragile recovery to a sustainable rebound."
In other economic news, consumers' confidence in the economy climbed in November to the highest level in more than a year as people perceived the job market to be turning around, the Conference Board reported. The private research group's consumer confidence index rose to 91.7 in November, up from a revised 81.7 in October.
"The surge in consumer confidence couldn't come at a better time," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. "Households are becoming more confident about the labor markets and the future in general and that bodes well for this crucial holiday shopping season."
Some analysts believe the economy is growing at a slower but still healthy rate of about 4 percent in the current October-to-December period, as some of the stimulus that helped in the third quarter -- President Bush's third round of tax cuts and a wave of mortgage refinancing -- fades.
Sales of previously owned homes fell by 4.9 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.35 million, the National Association of Realtors said. But even with the decline, October's sales marked the third best month on record and were on track to set an all-time high for all of 2003.
The main factors behind the upward revision to third-quarter GDP were stronger investment by business on new equipment and software, less severe cuts in companies' inventories and more brisk spending on residential projects. GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States.
"The economy is regaining the confidence of businesses and they are stepping up to the plate and spending and investing for the future," said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.
Treasury Secretary John Snow said the GDP report shows that the president's economic policies are moving the economy in the right direction. That's politically important to Bush as he heads into the 2004 re-election campaign. Democrats, however, blame Bush's poor handling of the economy for the loss of 2.3 million jobs since he took office in January 2001.
In October, the unemployment rate improved fractionally, to 6 percent, as the economy added jobs for a third straight month.
Steady improvements in job creation and in capital investment are crucial ingredients for the economic recovery to be sustained, economists said.
Consumers, meanwhile, continue to do their part to keeping the economy going. They boosted spending in the third quarter at a 6.4 percent rate. That was up from a 3.8 pace in the second quarter, but down slightly from the 6.6 percent rate previously estimated.
Especially encouraging was a 18.4 percent growth rate in business investment in new equipment and software in the third quarter. That was even stronger than the 15.4 percent pace previously estimated and up from 8.3 percent in the second quarter.
Spending on residential projects grew at a whopping 22.7 percent pace in the third quarter, also better than the 20.4 percent first estimated and up from 6.6 percent in the second quarter.
Fewer cuts to business inventories in the third quarter resulted in a 0.16 percentage-point increase to GDP in that three-month period, compared with a 0.67 percentage-point reduction to GDP as previously estimated.
Another factor in the upward revision to GDP in the third quarter: Slightly stronger spending by state and local governments. These governmental bodies boosted spending at a 2.3 percent pace, up from a 1.3 percent growth rate previously estimated."
"That moment has directly affected my foreign policy. See, it changed the nature of the presidency. It changed the security arrangements of the United States of America. I vowed to the American people I would never forget the lessons of September the 11th, 2001."
--President George W. Bush
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tjohn
Citizen
Username: Tjohn
Post Number: 1914
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 25, 2003 - 3:44 pm: |
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This will be a great story for my grandchildren. "I remember 2003. Yessiree, back then, we mortgaged your future, but it sure was good while it lasted."
Of course, in fairness to Dubya, he didn't invent the concept of mortgaging the future for today. Someday, the future is going to catch up with us and it won't be pleasant. |
strawberry
Citizen
Username: Strawberry
Post Number: 1473
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 25, 2003 - 4:04 pm: |
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sure Tjohn,
The Dems said the same thing when Reagan was President. Funny how the Dems always bring up the future until their President enjoys the financial accomplishments of our Presidents.
"That moment has directly affected my foreign policy. See, it changed the nature of the presidency. It changed the security arrangements of the United States of America. I vowed to the American people I would never forget the lessons of September the 11th, 2001."
--President George W. Bush
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tjohn
Citizen
Username: Tjohn
Post Number: 1916
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 25, 2003 - 4:20 pm: |
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We've been mortgaging our future on a bipartisan basis for quite some time. This comes in many forms such as declining corporate retirement benefits and other things that millions of Americans depended upon to guarantee a comfortable retirement. Some have the means and discipline to save via 401Ks. Others don't.
This is a chicken that won't come home to roost for a few more years yet. |
mem aka "toots"
Citizen
Username: Mem
Post Number: 2329
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 25, 2003 - 4:22 pm: |
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Isn't this being done in Maplewood as well? |
tom
Citizen
Username: Tom
Post Number: 1563
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 25, 2003 - 4:49 pm: |
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Cliff Harris
Citizen
Username: Cowboy
Post Number: 157
Registered: 9-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 25, 2003 - 6:15 pm: |
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Three Cheers or Chairs?
hoe, hoe, hoe...( naw I won't post a picture of 3 Ho's)
The Dow will strugle with 10,000, but eventually get through and rise to record levels before years end! |
Duncan
Citizen
Username: Duncanrogers
Post Number: 1191
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 25, 2003 - 6:52 pm: |
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Wow now thats goin out on a limb Cliff.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"
Wayne Gretzky
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tjohn
Citizen
Username: Tjohn
Post Number: 1917
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 25, 2003 - 8:02 pm: |
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Interestingly, however, in a recent CNN poll, most Americans do not credit the Bush Administration with the economic recovery. Now, these polls are particularly scientific, but still the numbers were interesting. I think it may be an indication that Dubya's "if you're not with us, you're against us" policy mabe be coming home to roost. Both domestically and internationally, there is an increasing tendency to either love him or hate him. |
NRL
Citizen
Username: Nrl
Post Number: 333
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 25, 2003 - 8:10 pm: |
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Polls are all B.S. They prove nothing. No one polled me, in that poll, did anyone poll you TJohn? Thats 2 votes that were not counted? I give Bush credit. If you do also that makes 2 votes they missed. Get my point?
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Duncan
Citizen
Username: Duncanrogers
Post Number: 1194
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 25, 2003 - 8:34 pm: |
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No I dont get your point. If polls are all B.S. then why has every elected official for the last 50 years employed them? Just to keep number crunchers busy. Or did you mean to say "all polls are B.S. if they don't agree with my own personal feelings
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"
Wayne Gretzky
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virgilian
Citizen
Username: Virgilian
Post Number: 147
Registered: 7-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 25, 2003 - 8:45 pm: |
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George Bush is dumb. |
NRL
Citizen
Username: Nrl
Post Number: 334
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 25, 2003 - 9:33 pm: |
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Duncan,
My point is, when a poll is taken and the results are posted, the big question comes to mind; Who did they poll? Did they poll me? did they poll you? I dont remember getting a call asking if I feel GW is responsbile for the boost in the economy.
Then why do the polls count if you or I have not been represented or participated in these polls?
My second point is; if they poll 20 democrats and 20 republicans, arent their Republicans that sometimes vote democrat and vice versa? I am one of them. Therefore selecting people by their party affiliation, demographics or geography is flawed.
IMO, Polls are nothing but news media time wasters and an insult to intelligent americans. I hope this clarifies things. |
Diversity Man
Citizen
Username: Deadwhitemale
Post Number: 519
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Tuesday, November 25, 2003 - 9:33 pm: |
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It's the economy stupid, not?
Let's see, Malvo, Muhammad, and (?) Jackson would nicely fit those chairs.
Bin Laden, Hussain, Qaddafi, Assad, Zawahari, Turabi; chairs anyone?
The guys who killed two youths in Newark two weeks ago, for starters.
DWM |
Duncan
Citizen
Username: Duncanrogers
Post Number: 1196
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, November 26, 2003 - 7:50 am: |
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No it doesnt clarify a thing, because much like our president you didnt really answer my question. Polls are not the exclusive purview of the news media. Candidates run them ALL THE TIME. So if they are what you say they are why does the machine use them. I would have more faith in your assertion if you had some sort of statistics education and could prove your point. But really, its just your opinion and you are entitled to it.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"
Wayne Gretzky
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Kenney
Citizen
Username: Kenney
Post Number: 105
Registered: 11-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, November 26, 2003 - 8:09 am: |
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All the polls are very similar to Reagans and Clintons at this time, suggesting a comfortable Bush victory.
to all my thoughts, add to the end:
or not.
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Kenney
Citizen
Username: Kenney
Post Number: 107
Registered: 11-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, November 26, 2003 - 9:15 am: |
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The number of Americans lining up to file an initial claim for jobless aid fell last week to its lowest level since early 2001, the government said on Wednesday in a better-than-expected report showing layoffs easing.
First-time filings for state unemployment benefits dropped 11,000 to 351,000 in the week ended Nov. 22, the Labor Department said. The decrease brought claims to their healthiest level since the week of Jan. 20, 2001, before the economy slipped into recession.
New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods were surprisingly strong in October, boosted by brisk demand for new aircraft and communications equipment, the government said on Wednesday in a report that showed business spending gaining speed.
All signs point to a strong economy well into 2004. The dem candidates only have the war in Iraq to run against; it looks like a landslide.
to all my thoughts, add to the end:
or not.
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strawberry
Citizen
Username: Strawberry
Post Number: 1475
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, November 26, 2003 - 12:46 pm: |
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Bush the statesman
http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/11817.htm
"That moment has directly affected my foreign policy. See, it changed the nature of the presidency. It changed the security arrangements of the United States of America. I vowed to the American people I would never forget the lessons of September the 11th, 2001."
--President George W. Bush
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Duncan
Citizen
Username: Duncanrogers
Post Number: 1201
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, November 26, 2003 - 12:53 pm: |
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The Post Straw??
I dont even have to read that to know its bunk
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"
Wayne Gretzky
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NRL
Citizen
Username: Nrl
Post Number: 335
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, November 26, 2003 - 12:54 pm: |
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Duncan, I answered the question, you just dont get it (and its not the first time.) My post does contain fact, if you read it carefully. In addition, you didnt answer my question either.
My question is: Did you get polled when they asked the question if Bush is responsible for the economy incline? I know I didnt get polled. Since, I am an american and I assume you are then the poll results as stated above are not the opinion of the american people and should not be proclaimed as such.
Let me know if you need to see this in another language or subtitle to understand it, I will see what I can come up with. |
Duncan
Citizen
Username: Duncanrogers
Post Number: 1203
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, November 26, 2003 - 1:05 pm: |
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NRL. thanks for putting me in my place. I didnt realize I was dealing with the preeminent intellect of the 20th century. My humblest apologies. But apparently you miss the simplest math. That for each democrat that might vote republican there is a republican who might vote democratic. And no, they did not check with me on this one but I have been polled at least 10 times since I first registered to vote. Ok, So I reread your post and despite your very eloquent argument to the contrary you still didnt answer my original question If polls are such B.S. why does every candidate employ them??
P.S. I will get back to you with the math behind why polls are not b.s.
I am really curious as to why you feel compelled to be so insulting in your posts?
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"
Wayne Gretzky
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Kenney
Citizen
Username: Kenney
Post Number: 110
Registered: 11-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, November 26, 2003 - 1:08 pm: |
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The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said on Wednesday that business activity in the Midwest surged this month as its business barometer rose to 64.1 from 55 in October -- its fastest pace of advance since February 1995.
New orders rose to 73, one of the highest readings ever.
polls shmolls--Bush will not lose because of the economy and as long as he remains strong on defense, it's a cakewalk.
to all my thoughts, add to the end:
or not.
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Duncan
Citizen
Username: Duncanrogers
Post Number: 1204
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, November 26, 2003 - 1:21 pm: |
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Ok.. lets see if this helps NRL..
Assuming you can put aside your obvious opinion that I have little or no intellect.
The Central Limit Theorem allows that "If you draw repeated samples out of the same population, they distribute themselves in a normal (bell-shaped) curve around the average for all possible samples. And that average will exactly equal the average for the whole population."
I am going to guess that George Gallup knows a little more about this than you do and his way of explaining it is much more my speed, perhaps it will make sense to you too. That a spoonful of soup gives you a pretty good idea what the whole pot of soup will taste like, provided the pot is well stirred. This is the simple math behind it, when my wife gets home I will ask her the harder math behind it. But it bears noting that George Gallup has called every presidential election within 3% points since 1952.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"
Wayne Gretzky
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Tom Reingold the prissy-pants
Citizen
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 1195
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, November 26, 2003 - 1:33 pm: |
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NRL, I'll state the obvious, risking saying things you already know. Maybe they'll be useful reminders.
Taking a poll involves taking a random sample of a population. The idea is that if it's random enough, the sample represents the population. The sample is usually a small minority of the population. Because of that, any given person, including you, is unlikely to be asked to participate. Still, the sample can be representative.
In sampling, it is better not to aim to hit Democrats and Republicans in equal numbers. It's better to hit randomly using things like the phone book. This assumes that people in the phone book are listed in proportion to the population. This is not necessarily accurate: people of certain political leanings or economic status might be more likely to have phones and listings.
The fact that you, personally, were not polled is no indication of a poll's accuracy.
Which part of the above do you disagree with? Or which part do you think is irrelevant?
There are good polls and bad polls.
Tom Reingold
There is nothing
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NRL
Citizen
Username: Nrl
Post Number: 336
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, November 26, 2003 - 2:33 pm: |
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Tom and Duncan, With all due respect, i appreciate your opinions but I dont believe the polls are an accurate sense of what people really think. I could give a lengthy response but you guys have made up your mind anyway. I am not in the business of convincing anyone to believe what I do. I just know that polling numbers are suspect to more that just the +3/-3 margin. There are a lot of environmental, demographic, geography and cultural influences to consider with these polls and I dont think theyre all taken into account.
When I see these polls on CNN and other networks I know my opinion wasnt considered in that poll nor was any of my friends family members or relatives. I have the right and the justification to doubt the results. It all depends on who you ask and when.
Happy Thanksgiving. |
Tom Reingold the prissy-pants
Citizen
Username: Noglider
Post Number: 1201
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, November 26, 2003 - 2:36 pm: |
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Perhaps you missed where I said there are good and bad polls. Some are unscientifically done, and some are unlucky. A great many are mis-applied. And many don't have enough statistical sophistication to understand them. How many know what standard deviation is?
But the fact that you and your relations were not polled is poor evidence of the quality of the poll. To argue that it indicates the invalidity of the poll is far less scientific than a typical bad poll.
Tom Reingold
There is nothing
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Duncan
Citizen
Username: Duncanrogers
Post Number: 1206
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, November 26, 2003 - 2:48 pm: |
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NRL.. I havent made up my mind. I took issue with your blanket assesment that all polls are B.S. They are not. It would appear that you are the one who has their mind made up. And thats fine. I would only suggest that you not then insult people who bring up alternative sides to your stance. In my post number 1203 I took offense and reacted somewhat childishly for which I apologize. But your tone of arrogant superiority was also uncalled for.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"
Wayne Gretzky
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