Why were India and Sri Lanka not warned?

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Author Message   John Davenport Citizen Username: Jjd Post Number: 456 Registered: 2-2003 Posted on Tuesday, January 11, 2005 - 11:19 pm:        I've read a lot of coverage about the Tsunami disaster, including endless repetition of the fact that no 'early warning system' exists in the Indian ocean (or the Atlantic for that matter). But I still do not understand why the old-style phone call could not have warned many villages. After all, every geological center in the region must have recorded an enormous earthquake soon after it happened (and in communication with each other, easily triangulated its location). There might not have been enough time to warn the Indonesian coast just east of the epicenter, but what about all the villages farther away? Why couldn't the geological centers with the earthquake-measuring devices (Richter scales I suppose) make some phone calls to their equivalent of 911 and spread the word to get off the beaches? I just don't get it? I read one article (think it was in the Star-Ledger) about a scientist in Indonesia who tried calling government offices right after the quake, and couldn't reach anybody, because it was Sunday. Apparently this same scientist had tried to convince his government that a serious danger existed, and been punished for it. If there was one such scientist on the phone, there must have been more. I think this whole question really needs looking into. Any ideas? Even guesses?   ajc Citizen Username: Ajc Post Number: 3389 Registered: 9-2001 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 12:31 am:        I think this whole question really needs looking into. IMHO, someone had to be asleep at the switch... The geological centers around the world with the earthquake-measuring devices had to understand the potential danger of a quake of that size... Can all these professionals be this stupid not to have a simple phone chain in place when something like this happens somewhere in the world?   wharfrat Citizen Username: Wharfrat Post Number: 1499 Registered: 6-2001 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 4:51 am:        A letter writer in yesterdays's NYTimes suggests in the future news outlets like CNN should be utilized as an early warning system. This makes perfect sense. A number of the villages destroyed on Sumatra had many times more TV sets than telephones.   Southerner Citizen Username: Southerner Post Number: 45 Registered: 2-2004 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 9:07 am:        If the Times say's to do it then of course let's do it. Forget the fact that CNN is a private for profit company.   Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 602 Registered: 5-2004 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 9:52 am:        Southerner, you make better points when you truly believe in what you're saying, and not just trying to be oppositional. It's not "right because the Times says to do it," anymore than it would be WRONG to do it because the Times say so. Just as it wouldn't be right or wrong if Fox News said it. You seem to have this bug up your butt about The Times lately. It's referenced a lot here because it's a quality (Yes, it is. If you read it you would know) national paper that originates locally here. Do you turn to your local paper for news, national or otherwise? And are you saying that CNN would not want to broadcast international weather warnings? They do that anyway. It's not like it's something new for them. All it would mean is that they are in the loop on these kinds of alerts. I really wish we could get CNN International in the US, or the BBC. It's amazing how much different the world looks to everyone else in it.   Albatross Citizen Username: Albatross Post Number: 433 Registered: 9-2004 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 12:04 pm:        It wasn't even the Times that said it; it was in a letter written to the Times. The paper has nothing to do with it other than printing it. I heard on NPR, Sunday I think it was, that seismologists had figured out what was going on before the tsunami hit, but that there were no (or inadequate) channels for the information to get to governments. The info was there, it just couldn't move. I think ajc is closest to the mark; there weren't any protocols for an alert by people, only by the warning systems.   Joe Citizen Username: Gonets Post Number: 604 Registered: 2-2004 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 12:25 pm:        Plus, CNN is a private company that does better when they can sensationalize rather than discuss complex, but important, issues. Too many words to fit in between commercials. Being part of an early warning system would enable CNN to pose as valuable contributors to the common good, while also giving them the kind of story that they could hype. Since all the major TV news (network, CNN and FOX) purveyors specialize in hype and infotainment--leaving genuine journalism as an afterthought--this would be a win-win for CNN and the rest of the world.   Southerner Citizen Username: Southerner Post Number: 49 Registered: 2-2004 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 1:11 pm:        Rastro, Your right. The other day I checked out MOL after being gone for awhile. I was amazed at how almost every thread had recitals from the Times as if it is the gospel and definitive authority on everything. It just struck me as being uniquely myopic. Now, I know the Times is a decent paper but come on. They have an agenda just like every other media outlet and I don't trust any of them except ESPN. As for this thread it struck me how differently some people think. Now that the initial shock of the disaster has passed us, my first thought was why in the heck didn't those governments of those countries affected have some sort of warning system to protect their own citizens and economic welfare (tourists), or their friends in the region. Instead, on this board everyone wants to talk about the U.S. response and what our leaders did or didn't do and how long it took them to do it or how much money we are giving. Am I missing something? As for CNN or any other private company here in the U.S., I doubt they have very many monetary incentives in that region (advertisers). If they have the information and want to broadcast warnings then they can choose to do that. But they should never be mandated by any government. These private companies took the risk and spent the money to invest in the infrastructure of their business in parts of the world where no other company would. But that is a classic response by many. To tell others how to spend their money (air time). To play the blame game I look directly at those governments in the region. What actions did they take? Why didn't they start calling hotels on the beach? Why didn't they invest in a warning system?   Dave Moderator Username: Dave Post Number: 4974 Registered: 4-1998 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 1:29 pm:        Satellite television as a warning system makes a lot of sense regardless of what paper it's printed in. All the major hotels in Asia pipe in STAR TV (Murdoch's, I think).   notehead Supporter Username: Notehead Post Number: 1855 Registered: 5-2001 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 1:29 pm:        To play the blame game I look directly at those governments in the region. You're quite right. The single most fundamental purpose of a national government is to protect it's citizens. Not having even a rudimentary warning system in place is a clear failure of that primary responsibility. But, surely, pointing fingers is puerile at this point. A tsunami warning system is now planned. Better to consider what other key safety measures might have been overlooked in the region.   Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 605 Registered: 5-2004 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 1:38 pm:        Southerner, you have to remember that the Times is a left-leaning, mass media, national paper. And it's local to our part of the country. So of course it's quoted more often than any other on theses boards, where most people are left leaning, and from the NY metro area. If Maplewood were just outside DC, I'm sure people would be quoting the Washington Post. As for this thread, I think it's back to "we have the resources, we should have done something." I do agree that part of the blame is on the governments of the countries hit. They, more than anyone, should have known the potential for devastation. They should have been hounding the UN or specific countries for help in getting a system up and running. I don't know whether they did or didn't. Why do we talk about the US response? Well, we don't live in Europe, so we can't really ••••• about their response, can we? As for CNN, governments make mandates on broadcasters all the time. But I don't think this would be something that would have to be mandated. CNN is there to broadcast news. (Yes, I know they're there to make money, but by broadcasting news that people want to know about, thus attracting advertisers). Can you imagine how many more viewers CNN would have during, say, Typhoon season, if they were to broadcast warnings about typhoons? Oh wait. They do that. While I make no guarantees, I'd be pretty certain CNN would be all over broadcasting any potential disaster announcement. Besides it being the right thing to do, their ratings would skyrocket during a crisis. They always do.   Strawberry Supporter Username: Strawberry Post Number: 4262 Registered: 10-2001 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 3:37 pm:        Years ago my wife and I were in Hawaii. Anyway, we wake up one morning and are wondering on the beach. Some official looking guy tells us to get off the beach because there's been a Tsunami warning issued. Anyway, we go back to our hotel and sure enough the hotel is warning folks that an evacuation "could" occur. We spend the rest of the day at the pool 50 feet from the beach. No evacuation is called and a Tsunami never hits. If we had been evacuated there would have been plenty of pissed off people, forced to spend a day of their vacation on "higher ground." As it was most were pissed because they couldn't use the beach that day. Chances are this IS exactly what worried officials shortly after they received the warning in Thailand, etc. ANGRY TOURISTS. That's why they weren't warned (and evacuated)   Tom Reingold Supporter Username: Noglider Post Number: 5115 Registered: 1-2003 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 3:47 pm:        But hindsight tells us that the people who decided not to send the warning (if that's the case) were wrong. There is a risk of an inaccurate warning. It can get to sound like crying wolf. There is also a risk of not sending a warning when you should. That's what happened. The trick is to try to be accurate. There's no crime in that.   susan1014 Supporter Username: Susan1014 Post Number: 339 Registered: 3-2002 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 3:51 pm:        Straw, we may have been there at the same time... I remember going to Hawaii years back and hearing the civil defense sirens at 6 or 7 AM. Tsunami warning...with 6 hours advance warning my husbands morning conference sessions went on as scheduled. Then they marched the entire hotel and all of the ready to eat food in the kitchen up to the hills on the golf course for a few hours of sitting in the sun. I remember boredom rather than anger. In the evening, after the 6 inch Tsunami hit, the hotel threw a free cocktail party as thanks to everyone. I'd rather be inconvenienced than endangered!   algebra2 Supporter Username: Algebra2 Post Number: 2830 Registered: 5-2001 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 3:55 pm:        Susan -- was it October of 94? It was about 6 in the morning and the sirens began going off. Our hotel didn't send us up the hill but I think all the others did.   mtierney Citizen Username: Mtierney Post Number: 730 Registered: 3-2001 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 5:33 pm:        Major problem from what I've read is that even if a warning had been issued, the countries do not have a system in place or education for the people as what to do. Obviously some of the "blame" must be directed toward the governments who do not train or instruct their police, etc. on how to get folks to higher ground. Reminds me of a time a few years ago while staying in a hotel near the Dead Sea — we were awakened about 4 a.m. by a loud voice coming through the intercom in the room shouting in Hebrew. Couldn't figure out what was wrong, but we sensed it was not good. Out in the hall people were heading for the ground floor (we were on the 10th) and told us that the hotel was being evacuated. No reason given. So happens there was a raging rain storm with thunder, lightening going on. We first thought it was terrorists, then feared fire. All the lights in the building went out to add to the general panic. Anyway halfway down we were told that the intercom was announcing (not in English) that everything was OK and to go back to the room. Needless to say, we didn't get much sleep that night! Next day we found out that only parts of the hotel had gotten the warning and no one at the front desk could explain what had happened! Travel is risky business!   susan1014 Supporter Username: Susan1014 Post Number: 341 Registered: 3-2002 Posted on Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 8:38 pm:        Algebra, October 1994 sounds about right...we were in the high-rise strip in Maui, I think, for a professional conference.   Southerner Citizen Username: Southerner Post Number: 52 Registered: 2-2004 Posted on Thursday, January 13, 2005 - 8:03 am:        Good points by all. I'm just worried that if a private company takes on this responsibility out of good will (which of course is a good thing) then they take the pressure off of individual governments from preparing their own system. For instance - CNN or whatever media outlet, becomes the default warning system for half of the world's population because they are trying to do the right and helpful thing by these people. The day comes when a disaster hits but no warning was given by this company. Something tells me that this company would be disparaged endlessly for not putting out a warning when they never had to from the beginning. Or what about issuing warnings that ruin vacations for disasters that never strike. I'll admit that part of my reasoning is due to my personal experience in many third world countries. I know I'm pulling out my broad brush here but in my opinion a vast majority of these countries are run by basically civilized thiefs who steal from their own people. I've been to many third world countries including Indonesia and I've seen the vast majority of people living in abject poverty while the leaders have multiple beautiful palaces all over the country. And you know who is financing all these regimes (even our supposed friends), of course, it's the American taxpayers and our "aid" we send over every year. I'm all for helping out and if we know about an impending disaster then of course we should notify these countries but I don't think we should be "depended" on to take on responsibilities that other governments should handle for their own well being.   Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 610 Registered: 5-2004 Posted on Thursday, January 13, 2005 - 1:22 pm:        Southerner, I totally agree with your second paragraph, and didn't mean to imply that CNN (or some other news outlet) should be forced to do anything. I think, however, BECAUSE of the accuracy of your second paragraph, that we (and the citizens of those countries) can't rely on their governments to do the right thing. Look at food aid in Africa. Look at medical aid throughout the third world. Rather than give the countries aid in the form of money or goods, maybe we should just do the work ourselves or not do it at all. Pissing money down a hole won't solve the world's problems. But ignoring them (or not doing anything) won't get things fixed either.   Southerner Citizen Username: Southerner Post Number: 56 Registered: 2-2004 Posted on Thursday, January 13, 2005 - 4:27 pm:        Rastro, We agree. The leaders make out and the people suffer. It's a shame but not much we can do. It makes me angry to see all this good will (money/product) be sent over there knowing that a large portion will be stolen and never make it to the people in need. Why do you think the governments are starting to bulk at our military support? Because it makes it harder for them to embezzle when a U.S. Marine is handing bottled water or food directly to the people.   John Davenport Citizen Username: Jjd Post Number: 461 Registered: 2-2003 Posted on Monday, January 17, 2005 - 2:28 am:        Interesting points, and I agree with Southerner that "a vast majority of these countries are run by basically civilized thiefs who steal from their own people. I've been to many third world countries including Indonesia and I've seen the vast majority of people living in abject poverty while the leaders have multiple beautiful palaces all over the country." I don't think we are really financing such governments now, but they are bad governments, to be sure. I also agree that a warning issued on CNN would have been worth a try, in addition to phone calls (if I were in a geological center that measured this quake, I'd try everything). Now the false positives are a worry (the unnecessary evacuation in Hawaii is legend), and I understand that only the sophisticated in-ocean system can prevent that. But when you register a 9-point quake in the Indian ocean, you can be pretty sure that a tidal wave is coming. I was primarily asking what anyone knows or has read about geological monitoring stations in the Indian ocean rim area, and why they did nothing, or weren't effective. It surely cannot be that the police in these nations need complex training on evacuation: if high water is coming, you go uphill. Apparently even the dogs and mules and elephants understood this, and it does not require complex training to move away from the shore as fast as possible. So, I repeat, is there any more info on why geological centers were not able to issue warnings? We need someone with specialized knowledge here. I'm not trying to point fingers, but just to understand.