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joeltfk
Citizen
Username: Joeltfk
Post Number: 72
Registered: 8-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 2, 2005 - 1:03 pm: | 
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Can someone tell me why John McCain wouldn't have a lock on the Republican nomination in 2008? I know he's not conservative enough for many Republicans, but the country loves him.
I say this as a Liberal Democrat who maybe watches too much "West Wing". I would probably vote for McCain over someone like Joe Lieberman, and I'm Jewish!
Also, who in their right mind really believes Hillary is electable. This is from the bright minds who thought Dean was really going to get the Democratic nomination last year.
Sometimes I play this game with my wife: who would have beaten Bush. I think Lieberman might have. Gore would have, maybe. Gephardt might have. Dean wouldn't have. But Edwards on his own might have. Hell, he has more national experience that Bush did in 2000.
One good thing about Gore losing in 2000; it opened my eyes to how narrow-minded, ignorant, and right-wing much of my fellow countrymen really are. I never would have known. Better to know. |
Mark Fuhrman
Citizen
Username: Mfpark
Post Number: 1226
Registered: 9-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 2, 2005 - 1:34 pm: |
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The right wing won't let McCain win the primaries. He would have to run an outsider race, as he did in 2000, and fund raising would be even harder in a world of McCain-Feingold, let alone getting a field staff and pledges from super-delegates. Frist and DeLay and Bush and Rove and Cheney hate him and will turn the party against him.
By the way, I don't think most Americans are right wing and ignorant. While there is a trend to social conservatism, this tends to wax and wane over time. Fiscally, most of us are uncomfortable with Bush's deficits, and queasy about his missionary zeal in foreign affairs--in other words, traditional conservatives. It's just that Gore ran a woeful campaign that did not take Bush seriously until too late, and Kerry was a stiff even though he ran a better campaign. Until the Dems get more on-point with real leaders, the GOP will continue to dominate. But that tends to wax and wane over time also. |
Bobkat
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 7458
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 2, 2005 - 1:40 pm: |
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I think Senator McCain will be well over 65 by then and I believe he has some health problems. I also don't think that he appeals to "the Base" that Bush and Rove have so carefully cultivated. Still, if he had been the candidate in the last election I suspect he would have gotten about 60% of the popular vote. I know he would have gotten my vote. 
Another possible candidate, who will also be over 65 by then is Colin Powell. While conventional wisdom would say an African-American wouldn't have a shot at the Presidency, he might prove that wrong. However, that ain't going to happen either.
The most likely candidate is Bill Frist, the Senate majority leader. I don't think he has been effective in that roll, but he has the conservative political, social and religious credentials to appeal to the before mentioned "Base". |
Mark Fuhrman
Citizen
Username: Mfpark
Post Number: 1228
Registered: 9-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 2, 2005 - 1:49 pm: |
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First Frist (always wanted to say that) has to survive pushing Bush's agenda through the Senate. Could get roughed up bad. He has been known to make political missteps. |
joeltfk
Citizen
Username: Joeltfk
Post Number: 74
Registered: 8-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 2, 2005 - 3:06 pm: |
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Sadder than the fact that we can't find a good Democrat is that ther only reasonable Republican -- McCain -- is rejected by his own party. Makes me long for Bob Dole!
"Until the Dems get more on-point with real leaders, the GOP will continue to dominate. But that tends to wax and wane over time also."
You know, I can write off the election as a result of poor Democratic candidates, but when 11 or so states vote to write discrimination into their state's constitutions by wide margins -- that's more than a societal pendulum swing. That's the pendulum falling off and wacking some gay or lesbian couple on the head. |
Mark Fuhrman
Citizen
Username: Mfpark
Post Number: 1229
Registered: 9-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 2, 2005 - 3:36 pm: |
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That, too, will change. But it will take longer than I (or you or many others) hoped. |
Bobkat
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 7461
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 2, 2005 - 3:55 pm: |
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Equally interesting is who the Dems will run in 2008. Will they recycle Kerry, go for Hill or Corzine (if he doesn't step on his laces in NJ) or try to find a capable moderate such as the Governor of Iowa or Senator Byhe (sp?) of Indiana? The problem is that at this point none of the latter group have much name recogniztion. |
mwoodwalk
Citizen
Username: Mwoodwalk
Post Number: 298
Registered: 9-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 2, 2005 - 9:12 pm: |
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Let me repeat, Frist has NO SHOT. I state this as a part of the "base" that will do the choosing.
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joeltfk
Citizen
Username: Joeltfk
Post Number: 76
Registered: 8-2001
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 2, 2005 - 10:24 pm: |
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So, MWood, as part of that base, who would you most like to see in there next? I'm really curious.
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bottomline
Citizen
Username: Bottomline
Post Number: 175
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, February 2, 2005 - 10:59 pm: |
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Democratic governors? How about Bill Richardson? And, by 2008, John Corzine?
There is no way the public would accept Cheney, because of his age and health. He's almost 70 and has had four heart attacks. He can slide by as VP in that condition but could never get the presidential nod.
Jeb's an interesting case. On his own merits, he would probably be a strong candidate. But I wonder if there would be a backlash, or at least a stigma, about one brother trying to follow another into the White House.
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Bobkat
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 7466
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 8:07 am: |
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Mw, unless you are a Pioneer your views don't count because you live in a Blue state. Now if you are a Pioneer you might have some say under the thery that "Money talks and Bullxxxx walks". |
Strawberry
Supporter
Username: Strawberry
Post Number: 4442
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 8:43 am: |
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Jeb is a friend of mine. He has told me he has no plans to run in 2008. His concern obviously being the idea of back to back family members.
Corzine could be a player but frankly I don't see anyone with a beard being elected. Image is half the battle and explains why Kerry got the nod this time. Tall, good looking (in a Herman Munster sort of way)
However, when push comes to shove the Dem tix in 08 will be Hill+Obama.
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bottomline
Citizen
Username: Bottomline
Post Number: 176
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 8:50 am: |
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Hillary won't anywhere near the podium when the Dem's ticket takes the stage at the 2008 convention. She'll be lucky if she's still a U.S. senator then.
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Bobkat
Supporter
Username: Bobk
Post Number: 7468
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 8:52 am: |
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Straw, Abe Lincoln?
I think your hopes for Hill are kinda like mine for Furst. Both are easily beatable by a more mainstream candidate. |
Strawberry
Supporter
Username: Strawberry
Post Number: 4443
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 9:00 am: |
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Well I guess if we want to take it that far back we can go even further. I also highly doubt anyone can get elected if they have wooden teeth such as GW or own slaves such as Jefferson...
The last President to have a beard? Was it Lincoln? |
Strawberry
Supporter
Username: Strawberry
Post Number: 4444
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 9:01 am: |
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Hillary will be re-elected unless Rudy or maybe Powell runs against her. My guess is neither will. She will indeed make her Presidential move in 08. |
Wendyn
Supporter
Username: Wendyn
Post Number: 1322
Registered: 9-2002
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 9:19 am: |
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Don't have an answer but interestingly there are a lot of stories about Lincoln's beard:
http://www.angelfire.com/my/abrahamlincoln/Beard.html
Hillary might run but won't get the nod. Too many dems don't respect her. She may be an intelligent woman but staying with Bill for so long despite his wandering ways reeks of ambition winning over personal ethics. Plus I didn't like the move to NY to run for Senator (not like she was the only one to do this, just one of the highest profile) nor the recent conservative slant speech she gave. |
joeltfk
Citizen
Username: Joeltfk
Post Number: 78
Registered: 8-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 10:29 am: |
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Hill ary is unelectable because she's an outspoken woman. I'm not saying that because I believe outspoken women are inherently bad. Quite the opposite. She's also seen as a political animal, not a human being. There is no way she's going to be nominated in 2008, no matter what she does or how hard she tries. Perhaps VP.
I'd like Edwards in 2008 but he will have been unemployed for four years after one term. Dicey.
I hope Frist doesn't get a shot, but how much more extremist can you get thanh George Bush? I doubt at this point anyone is too extreme for the Republican Party's approval. Look at their platform. They'd put up Santorum is they could.
So, who's likely for the Republican nomination if not Frist? Powell? I wouldn't mind that. But he's a centrist, like McCain. I hear the scariest Republican as John Cornyn, because he comes across as a nice, reasonable guy (unlike DeLay) but his views are way extreme. I heard Colorado Governor Bill Owens is a good-looking candidate, but he's said he's not interested in the Presidency. Jeb seems tainted by Florida -- I think people will have OD'd on Bushes by then.
It's all so depressing.
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joeltfk
Citizen
Username: Joeltfk
Post Number: 79
Registered: 8-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 10:36 am: |
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mwood --
Just re-read your original post:
GOP--Bill Owens, Gov., Colorado
Dark horse--Giuliani
Dem--Tom Vilsack, Gov. Iowa
Dark horse(s)--Mark Warner, Gov. Virginia, Mark Sanford, Gov. S. Carolina
Seems reasonable (if Owens becomes interested). Of course, as someone once said on The Daily Show, a ham sandwich would be a better President than George W. Bush.
My wife and I disagree about Giuliani. She sees him as a power-loving tyrant and evildoer. I see him as a fervent do-gooder who did and said what he had to to get in his party's good graces (which, while not honorable, is understandable), but probably has the same mainstream views (i.e. pro-choice, gay-tolerant) as Bloomberg.
Believe you me, given all the choices I'd wear an AHNold pin if it was between him and someone like Cornyn or Santorum. |
Michael Janay
Citizen
Username: Childprotect
Post Number: 1525
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 12:44 pm: |
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I agree with Owens for the GOP, I see it being Owens/Frist.
As for the Dems... Corzine/Clinton. Thats a fundraising machine, and they'll be hard to beat. |
Strawberry
Supporter
Username: Strawberry
Post Number: 4452
Registered: 10-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 12:50 pm: |
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The Dems need candidates from areas other then the tri-state area.
No one in "red" country is voting for a New York/New Jersey ticket.
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Michael Janay
Citizen
Username: Childprotect
Post Number: 1526
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 12:55 pm: |
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I don't know about that Straw,
Corzine has a lot of business experience to fall back on which will make him seem moderate to the uninformed, and as Governor if/when he wins he'll have an impressive political resume. Hillary has a lot of support, While I don't expect that ticket to change the countries demographics in a big way, it could definetly turn Ohio blue. Hill wouldn't win as the top name on the ticket, but as Veep?
We need to make sure Corzine isn't elected governor. |
joeltfk
Citizen
Username: Joeltfk
Post Number: 84
Registered: 8-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 1:15 pm: |
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Thanks for giving me reason to support Corzine as Governor. Hadn't really thought about it until now. |
Rastro
Citizen
Username: Rastro
Post Number: 683
Registered: 5-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 1:18 pm: |
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MJ,
If Corzine runs, he will win. I have little doubt about that. With Codey out of the race, there aren't too many other high profile Dems that have name-recognition in the North.
And Corzine doesn't seem moderate only to the uninformed. Maybe Moderate isn't the right word. Practical is more like it. Because of his business experience, he's seen as someone who is realistic in his expectations. that's not to say he won't be full of rhetoric, like any politician. But when push comes to shove, I think he knows what can be accomplished, and what is an impossible pipe dream. |
Michael Janay
Citizen
Username: Childprotect
Post Number: 1531
Registered: 1-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, February 3, 2005 - 2:58 pm: |
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See rastro, thats the problem...
People say "well he has the business experince so he must know what can really be done".
But that's not the case. He is so full of crap it is head spinning. Like his SS article in another thread. He knows the facts and plays on false perceptions to push an agenda- yes, lots of pols do that, but Corzine is insidious at it.
And I agree, Corzine will win the Gov. mansion. NJ has a bad habit of picking the worst possible governors. The only recent exception is Kean. |
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