| Author | Message | ||
     Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 420 Registered: 4-2006 |
IMHO, we,the people in MSH and M/SO, live in one of the nicest areas of New Jersey. That being said, what do you think about our home values? Are the value of our homes going to appreciate more, or less? Where do you think they will be in five years time? What do you think we should do in our respective towns to have our homes appreciate more or make our communities more desirable? Property taxes. Do you think we will get any relief from the state government or not? Where do you expect taxes to go? How will you personally deal with increases? What are your suggestions for property tax reform?( considering we have some of the best intellectual capital in the state in our three towns). Reevaluations and reassessments. For those in towns contemplating one or the other, or doing them, what do you think? Will you pay more taxes or less? How frequently should they be done? How confident are you in them getting our values right? Will you stay in your community or will you go? And if you go, where will that be? | ||
| Hoops Citizen Username: Hoops Post Number: 1335 Registered: 10-2004  |
My prediction - Our property taxes will go up and the value of our homes will be dropping because the interest rates of mortgages are going up. How far down they will go depends on how bad the economy is going to get. With oil prices at their highest only going higher I cant see how people can afford to live here. | ||
| sbenois Supporter Username: Sbenois Post Number: 15016 Registered: 10-2001  |
30-40% drop in home values if interest rates go above 7.5% on a 30year | ||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 11491 Registered: 5-2001 |
S, if you are correct there is going to be a major banking crisis as people walk away from the properties they purchased over the last year or two with 5% or so down. | ||
| sbenois Supporter Username: Sbenois Post Number: 15017 Registered: 10-2001 |
Economic realities won't be stopped by a banking crisis. There is significant inflation now firmly entrenched in our economy. Interest rates could very well explode higher over the summer as energy prices continue to climb. And Maplewood is going to take a very significant hit because of our tax stress problem - much worse than other communities. This issue ought to be at the top of the candidates' questions for TC in the next few weeks. Banking crisis? You bet. Better start reading the fine print on the new bankruptcy laws. | ||
| Southerner Citizen Username: Southerner Post Number: 1066 Registered: 2-2004 |
Nothing like getting in over your head and then filing bankruptcy. I guess Bush will get blamed because so many voluntarily signed on the dotted line with a big smile on their face. I hope your wrong Seb. | ||
| sbenois Supporter Username: Sbenois Post Number: 15018 Registered: 10-2001 |
If people overpay for their homes or overextend themselves, it's no ones fault but the person in the mirror. Not Bush. Not the banks either. | ||
| HOMMELL Citizen Username: Hommell Post Number: 173 Registered: 11-2005 |
I think I'll check the magic 8-ball. It's just as accurate. | ||
| Case Citizen Username: Case Post Number: 1552 Registered: 2-2005 |
Wow, 30 to 40% - seems like a pretty sharp drop to me... but as I explain to my friends: my house could be valued at 3x what I paid for it (it's not!), but I'm staying here for the next 10 years or more regardless. If the value drops that far, though, I wonder if there's any impact on the mortgage? As in, aren't you supposed to have a certain amount of equity in the place realtive to your debt? | ||
| bottomline Citizen Username: Bottomline Post Number: 434 Registered: 8-2003 |
Southerner and Sbensois are both right: if the housing market tanks it won't be Bush's fault, but he will get blamed. | ||
| cmontyburns Citizen Username: Cmontyburns Post Number: 1823 Registered: 12-2003  |
The value of our homes isn't going to drop until the NYC real estate market collapses, and that's not going to happen any time soon, regardless of interest rates. | ||
| Dave Supporter Username: Dave Post Number: 9408 Registered: 4-1997  |
Um, well, it kind of is Bush's fault. Needless War...big spending federal govt... debt...weakening dollar... weakening interest in US debt issues... BAM! higher interest rates! The local market is already softer. | ||
| Dave Supporter Username: Dave Post Number: 9409 Registered: 4-1997 |
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/08/AR2006050801425. html | ||
| Southerner Citizen Username: Southerner Post Number: 1070 Registered: 2-2004 |
Well, to that I say, anyone who bought a house at these recent exorbitant prices with a half man half monkey as President should have factored that in before they signed on the line. I thought all you smart libs knew from day one Bush was out to get you. You can't use the excuse that you didn't know! Besides, all real estate agents are neo-cons and were laughing when you drove away after signing. | ||
| Duncan Supporter Username: Duncanrogers Post Number: 6338 Registered: 12-2001  |
Glad I bought in the Clinton years and paid 1/5th what the comps in my neighborhood are asking. and so soon after the midtown direct started that noone had yet realized the AWESOME benefit of that change. If Sben is right, which I think he is in a national sense but not a regional one, then even a 30% drop doesn't hurt folks much who have been here 10 years or more. Regionally, as long as no one can afford to buy their own place in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, or SI then we are ok. A 30 minute train ride, a yard, a town that has a population who cares, and even high taxes are better than paying someone else and sharing your bedroom with your 5 year old. If they can afford it they will come. | ||
| sbenois Supporter Username: Sbenois Post Number: 15019 Registered: 10-2001 |
Would you agree that most homes in M-SO have doubled in price in the last five years? | ||
| ajc Citizen Username: Ajc Post Number: 5110 Registered: 9-2001  |
...yes "S", thanks to President George W. Bush being in office for the past five years.  | ||
| Case Citizen Username: Case Post Number: 1554 Registered: 2-2005 |
I've got some crabgrass problems in my front yard, and I'm pretty sure it started right after "mission accomplished" was declared. Damn you, George W! | ||
| Southerner Citizen Username: Southerner Post Number: 1071 Registered: 2-2004 |
Buy low, sell high. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 424 Registered: 4-2006 |
Maplewood and South Orange price appreciation may depend on the NYC real estate market as cmonty notes. Depends on where your buyers are coming from, and I think they are coming from NYC for the easy commute. Price is a factor of taxes. Both towns need more commercial ratables to offset the tax stress on residential properties. Maplewood has made some advances, but South Orange? Both towns need to ramp it up, lest you have the same situation that existed back in the 90's. People still don't think the availability of parking is an issue in all our towns. To desirable builders and businesses, it is. MSH, IMHO, will be negatively impacted (which I hate to say) based on the spending of the MSH school boards over the past six-seven years which has pushed the taxes up, and has/will set off a chain of events. To claim the area will lose 35-40% of past appreciation may be pushing it. Are you saying a full-blown recession? If the Fed keeps following IMF ideas, and we attack Iran, maybe. Interest rates do matter, but they don't matter if a town is considered desirable enough that a buyer wants to get in. They have to MARKET all our towns out the wazoo then. | ||
| Smarty Jones Citizen Username: Birdstone Post Number: 627 Registered: 10-2005 |
Couple of facts: 1) Housing is not correlated to interest rates. It's simply a leading indicator to inflation (or lack of). Anyone predicting a housing crash based on higher expected interest rates basically doesn't know what they are talking about. 2) Interest rates could just as easily go down as they could go up from here. Particularly if you are predicting a recession (see Greenspan Fed circa 2002-2003 as first example). So those predicting higher interest rates AND recession, really don't know what they are talking about. 3) Condo's, spec housing, vacation homes, and house builders all get CRUSHED in negative housing turns. Individual Single-family homes don't. They go sideways, and stay on the market much longer..MUCH MUCH longer than anyone is recently accustomed. But that's it. In 50 years, the Existing Housing index has NEVER had a negative year. So anyone screaming about losing house price values is basically suggesting something will happen that has never happened before....good luck with that prediction. There's your facts, I suggest you revisit your opinions. Here's another fact....As for taxes, they only go UP. Anyone who thinks their re-val is going to reduce their tax rate, is halucinating. Personally, I think the South/East side of town don't pay nearly enough, but for whatever reason, that's considered 2nd fiddle to the North Side of town, SO BE IT. I end up paying $4K more than for identical house across the street. Here's a question....why on Earth do people from Maplewood seem to think that the state of New Jersey honestly wants/cares to reduce Maplewood/SO taxes? We're one of the wealthier towns in NJ? Who honestly believes any of our dopey local politicians who promises this will occur? ie, I feel justified in calling them dopey, the minute they start saying the answer to our local tax dilemna is to get free money from the State of NJ (who, if you haven't noticed, are trying to find ways to get more money from LOCAL MUNICIPALITIES!) DOH! So now to my answers: 1. Homes 1-3% annually, over next five years. (on or about inflation) 2. Taxes go up for everyone on Reval; equally across the board. 3. Nobody will know how the extra taxes is being spent. Town cancels remaining Bulk pick-up day. 4. The state of NJ raises taxes on M/SO residents without sending one Nickel this way. Tax Solution- Attracte smoe REAL REVENUE business to M/So on springfield ave, and give-up on the lovely idea that Mom-Pop owned stores,that can barely survive as it is, will do anything to help our tax situation. Place a Bed-Bath-Beyond, a Banana Republic, a Victoria Secret and a Best Buy, and you'll have some serious Revene to contend with. (parking probably the obstacle here, unfortunately) When a local candidate runs on the platform of courting a real business to come to town, they will have my vote. I've gotten a lot off my chest on this post, some on topic, some not so on topic. Thank you to anyone who afforded me the courtesy of reading my post in its entirity (sp?). | ||
| efull Citizen Username: Efull Post Number: 23 Registered: 4-2006 |
See Smarty We agree on this topic. I too as someone whose industry relies on small business think that Mom and pop shops are struggling right now and what would help us greatly is a "Gap" or something that could give us a stronger revenue base and bring some more foot traffic and commerce to the businesses on Springfield ave, so that we can help them to survive as well, because they are important to the "landscape" of the town. | ||
| Smarty Jones Citizen Username: Birdstone Post Number: 629 Registered: 10-2005 |
Thanks Efull....I'll point out that it's the reason Shopping Malls all have Anchor Stores like Macy's...it's the only way all the little independent stores in between can get enough foot traffic to survive. Although I will point out that it seems that Nail Salons defy the conventional wisdom of this notion, along with defying the confential thinking on Market saturation. | ||
| sbenois Supporter Username: Sbenois Post Number: 15020 Registered: 10-2001 |
Please show me the economics book you used to come up with the notion that the same house in Maplewood will sell for $500,000 regardless of whether mortgage rates are at 5.5% or rise to 7.5% or 9% or 11%. Thankey. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 427 Registered: 4-2006 |
Smarty- Enjoyed reading your post, which I think should cause some debate, especially on the reval and taxes. Some queries/comments: 1) Interest rates- So you are saying that the fact that the monthly cost of a mortgage will increase will not effect buyer decisions? How many buyers are stretching to buy in our area? Have you read about the 50 year mortgage products that may be rolled out? 2) It would seem to me that Maplewood/South Orange should try and deconstruct Westfield's success in bringing national retailers into smaller-sized properties in their downtown ( have been told Westfield is a unique situation- is it?). The biggest issue with many is access and parking. 3) Downturns in the market also affect single family properties, in some cases dependent upon the price point, in some cases not. If you may recall a lot of people overpaid in the '80s and had to eat it in selling their house in the '90s. Do you remember the housing market in Maplewood in the mid-90's? I know of people who had to sell their house at a loss. Will it be 1% appreciation at a minimum if taxes stay ballpark but loss of appreciation if taxes go through the roof? Your thoughts? | ||
| Aquaman Supporter Username: Aquaman Post Number: 904 Registered: 8-2001  |
Factsvsfiction, Are you considering moving to SO/Maplewood or is speculation on our pending reval your hobby? You raise some good questions, but you seem a little too eager to be for real. Esp. since you claim to live in Short Hills. Esp. during election season. You keep coming back to Maplewood/SO with the big questions. Odd for one who who (allegedly) lives in a town with little in common with M/SO besides sharing county adherence. Thankey. | ||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 11495 Registered: 5-2001 |
I don't think housing prices have fallen 25% plus in this country since the depression. Even in the late 1980s-early 1990s the fall off in Maplewood and South Orange was in the single digits. As pointed out Millburn/Short Hills is a different demographic and my recollection, from a post here, is that they faired better than we did. As S points out, we are kind of venturing into unknown territory. The deficiet is growing rapidly and it seems that oil prices will be at high levels for a long period. I don't think anyone expects gasoline prices to dip back to under $2.00 per gallon, ever. The next recession may be sharper than the last one, although I hope that it isn't as long. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 429 Registered: 4-2006 |
Aquaman- As I have posted previously, I believe in our area we are all in this together. What happens in one town impacts the other, as it relates to a strong housing market, home appreciation, and perceived desirability. When I first looked in this area I thought Maplewood and South Orange were incredible towns due to the relative consistancy of the styles of the housing stock (rare in Jersey) and beauty of the town areas in general. I ended up in MSH since the type of house I wanted at the price I was willing to pay was on the market here at the time. Not because I didn't like M/SO. If you recall the dark days of '96-'97, when homes sat on the market and prices kept on being reduced, you have to think it's a no-brainer for M/SO to develop more commercial ratables. Close to 10 years later, where are they, has enough been done, etc. etc.? That's a question for residents to ask, and it's their satisfaction with the answers, not mine, that counts. It's interesting to me to see resident takes on their town issues. From posting on the Maplewood forum I have learned that posters don't think there is a need for a parking deck in Maplewood or a parking problem in Maplewood village. In SO forum I see some residents are very confident that their reval will be a good thing, but the sculpture, not. Not trying to be a "trouble-maker" as you seem to want to infer. I do think that out-of-towners considering buying homes in our area can read these threads and consider the honest and intelligent discussion of town issues here make our area even more desirable as a place to live. They see people are engaged and active, and whatever problems (perceived, or real) that exist are being addressed and are not swept under the rug or ignored. Don't you agree? | ||
| Smarty Jones Citizen Username: Birdstone Post Number: 630 Registered: 10-2005 |
Sbenois- Show me the economic link between Interest rates and Housing prices.....Probably you will have trouble finding that, because it doesn't exist. Most people trying to sell books or make dramatic headlines fail to site that disclaimer. I've run the corelations myself. Many are concerned about how many people are in ARMS and unique Mortgage products. These are merely more choices, which isn't a scary thing unto itself. I'll point out that the US is the only nation that offers consumers 30 year fixed with option to refinance. The rest of the world is basically in ARM-style mortgages, and they fare quite well with them. Again, don't be scared of the unknown. Yes, higher interest rates may impact buyer decisions, but only direct affect is DOM. Taxes have a big impact on prices, so a significant increase in housing taxes will have an impact on local price differences. Raising them (relative to the area), isn't good for house prices. As for Westfield, I'll admit I'm completely unaware to what goes on in that town, but would like to hear more about it... | ||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 11499 Registered: 5-2001 |
Westfield has brought national chains into downtown store fronts. They may be smaller than the average mall location, but they aren't miniscule, which is the case with downtown Maplewood and with Springfield Avenue as well. I also believe that Westfield has a large number of shopper parking lots (as opposed to commuter ones)) spread around downtown that makes the area more attractive for retailers. In addition Westfield is located in the center of a number of reasonably affluent towns and the retailers can draw from those sources as well. Maplewood doesn't have that luxury because of Irvington and Newark to the east. Still, I have heard and would like to believe that Richard Roberts location on Maplewood Avenue is their most profitable. Local legend has it that they only opened here because they couldn't find reasonably priced space in Millburn. | ||
| Case Citizen Username: Case Post Number: 1556 Registered: 2-2005 |
A bit off the subject, perhaps, but FvF seems to have registered last month... and has over 400 posts? That DOES seem a bit odd. | ||
| Duncan Supporter Username: Duncanrogers Post Number: 6343 Registered: 12-2001 |
Sbenois...my house hasn't doubled in value in the last five years. It doubled in value the five years before that. | ||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 11502 Registered: 5-2001 |
Case I thin FvF has a serious addiction problem. But then do a lot of the rest of us. | ||
| Straw Kennedy Supporter Username: Strawberry Post Number: 7205 Registered: 10-2001  |
Duncan, That's just wrong.. You don't understand the real estate market. | ||
| Nohero Supporter Username: Nohero Post Number: 5386 Registered: 10-1999  |
Re: Westfield. One of my business colleagues lives there. Do you know what he tells me that they complain about there? They don't want all those chain stores, they want more unique stores and restaurants - like in Maplewood. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 431 Registered: 4-2006 |
Case and Bob K- Is there a 12 step program for MOL posting ?  Bob K and Nohero- On Westfield you have to look at the square footage of their stores (ain't that large) as may be done on Springfield Ave. and SO, but their downtown is similiarly tight and the largest amount of available parking is a bit away around their train station. Nohero, as I understand it the small merchants and the town are quite happy with the chains, and rents are high and turnover low. Supports healthy commercial property appreciation. Do many Westfield-ians come to Maplewood to shop and dine then? Not from what I hear. Everyone bitches about their towns, the key is to be open to new ideas. I don't own commercial property in M/SO so I have no self-serving agenda in commenting on our area towns, but I do recall being told, back in the middle '90s not to buy a house in the Wyoming section of MSH because it was too close to Maplewood, which was " in decline". Again, my point is, as close neighbors we are all in this together. The higher prices you get for your homes and the more successful your towns are, the happier I am here. People frequently are too xenophobic on these threads to get that. | ||
| Duncan Supporter Username: Duncanrogers Post Number: 6344 Registered: 12-2001 |
That's not wrong Straw. You know nothing about what we paid for our house and what it's market value was in 2001 and what it is now. So shut up already. | ||
| sbenois Supporter Username: Sbenois Post Number: 15021 Registered: 10-2001 |
How much do you think it's gone up since '01? | ||
| Aquaman Supporter Username: Aquaman Post Number: 905 Registered: 8-2001 |
Case, FvF is one of those election-time posters. Better than the average shill, but a shill's a shill. Notice how FvF always buries election issues in the posts? Fvf's last post is really about creating business parking and creating commercial ratables. The last paragraph is Fvf's protesting (too much) about not having a horse in this race. "The higher prices you get for your homes and the more successful your towns are, the happier I am here. People frequently are too xenophobic on these threads to get that." Houses are selling for a pretty penny here in M/SO, we've even got ourselves some millionaires. More parking = more traffic = less downtown charm, like Westfield and Millburn. | ||
| Case Citizen Username: Case Post Number: 1557 Registered: 2-2005 |
Business parking - if this has something to do with building a multi-story parking structure in the village, someone get me FvF's real name and address - I'll volunteer to beat the •••• out of him. (I would welcome donations to the bail and legal defense fund, however). |
