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     Nohero Supporter Username: Nohero Post Number: 5387 Registered: 10-1999  |
FvF - I was just relating some anecdotal information. I think it has more to do with the fact that, as is often the case, people think that the grass is greener on the other side (or, in the other downtown). As for the 12 step program, we've had some of those around here. But, as others have noted, this is not the place to go to find a solution to your addiction! Case - I won't volunteer to beat anyone up, but put me down for the "no garage" movement ... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 434 Registered: 4-2006 |
Aquaman- My comments are my own, but I can understand how they could offend some politicians and their hangers-on, like yourself apparently, if it even remotely touches a nerve or two about their past or present performance. I don't have a dog in your fights, nor know what your candidates' platforms are, I just discuss the things that interest me, being aware of these type of issues elsewhere. Rest assured I will be here after your elections. Now stop being a paranoid n##. Case- Lol. Hope you then are really, really young and in great shape then! Actually when I discussed parking in the village I was swiftly brought to task by Joan and Tom Rheingold. Out of the several posts I think ajac was the only one who saw a parking deck option, and I believe it was at the soon-to-be- former police station. It is interesting to see what people in other towns think about parking decks as a downtown shopping stimulus and a commercial growth option. I don't believe I have the power to give you one in any event Case, so calmn down and chill. Nohero- While perhaps a sex addiction would be better, I have enjoyed posting here due to various downtimes at present. I trust Aquaman will miss me when the posts are a bit more infrequent. Thanks for your response here to my thread. I have enjoyed reading all the comments. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Aquaman Supporter Username: Aquaman Post Number: 906 Registered: 8-2001  |
Case, Don't go all medieval on anyone (yet) FvF is ingratiating him or herself and then psuedo-naively supposing very campaign-oriented issues. Parking, Profeta V. DeLuca (in a campaign where neither is running) ratables...etc. Fvf will evaporate after the local election. Possibly Fvf will stick around half-heartedly to prove me wrong, but come July we won't be hearing from Fvf. Sort of like...insert fake throw-away name [here] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 438 Registered: 4-2006 |
Aquaman- Any relation to Aqualung? "ingratiating himself"? "psuedo-naively"? Are you now also a Dr. Phil wanna-be, besides being some local politician's hanger-on, or a politician yourself? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Aquaman Supporter Username: Aquaman Post Number: 907 Registered: 8-2001 |
Fvf, Don't even start with me. tell me - do you have children in the Millburn school system? Quick as a rabbit an overview of Millburn HS - it's 9:30 - too late to call people and I don't want anything from a website. GO! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Case Citizen Username: Case Post Number: 1558 Registered: 2-2005 |
Heh heh heh heh heh.... I'm almost wishing that MOL required real names, verified by the board owners. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 11508 Registered: 5-2001 |
If FvF is a shill, which I doubt, he is a very clever one. He started posting in the Millburn section of the board and moved over to the SOM section because, I think, of the action. I suspect that he is a "small" businessman of some sort and his comments are worth listening to, even if you don't agree. Both Maplewood and South Orange are on the cusp of basically deciding what they want to be when they grow up, especially as far as rateables are concerned. S, the appreciation you see in your home depends on where you live. In some parts of the Westside getting double the assessment was the exception, not the rule. We can speak from experience on that subject. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Phenixrising Citizen Username: Phenixrising Post Number: 1657 Registered: 9-2004  |
Sbenois...my house hasn't doubled in value in the last five years. It doubled in value the five years before that. Have to agree with Duncan. We bought in the Clinton years and before the MidTown Direct. Our house has tripled since 1994. And I'm going by the prices of other homes that have sold recently in our area. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 3118 Registered: 5-2004  |
Smarty Jones, the only point that I disagree with about your assessment (no pun intended) is w/r/t the reval. Unless the town increases the budget dramatically in the year the reval hits, not everyone's taxes will go up. While it won't be 50-50, I would guess 30-35% of the town's residents will see some drop in taxes, ranging from minuscule to moderate. For example, assuming a town with five representative housing areas with average assessments and taxes below, a 10% increase in taxes will still result in lower taxes for two areas.
In this example, it would require a tax increase of over 80% to increase everyone's taxes. That number is based on the - I forget the term, but it's the deviation from the mean home value. Note that the average price in H5 has increased 233%. Their taxes went up accordingly. Same for H1 and H2. But note H3 and H4 have lower taxes. Now, assume taxes stay go up 25%.
Even in this case, H4's taxes still go down. This is because there will always be someone who's home value has increase well below the mean increase. The less disparity, the less everyone's taxes will change. But the whole reason for a reval is to remedy that disparity so that people are not being taxes on values that are no longer accurate relative to the rest of the town. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bajou Citizen Username: Bajou Post Number: 335 Registered: 2-2006 |
Dear Smarty Jones: I can tell you that there is a definite link between Interest rates and Housing prices. You have to see the bigger picture, which is not just the mortgage issue. It is the persons overall debt which will be affected. Since the stock market usually does not do to well during interest hikes corporations are hurting since their loan rates go up too which means they will cut down on spending. So now you have higher unemployment and lower salary expectation, which equals less of a buyers appetite. Less buyers automatically equates into lowering prices. Here you go. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/economy/fedwatch.html http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/markettrends/20051223-simon.html?rejpar tner=newsfeed_res | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 11512 Registered: 5-2001 |
Back to Duncan and when appreciation took place. I went back to the reval data base I have saved since 2000 since I am a compulsive.  On the street where we lived several houses sold in the middle and later in 1998. The assessments were from around 50%-100% over the sales price a year before the reval. One of the houses that sold in mid-1998 sold for within $10,000 of what it sold for in 1987, which tells you something about Maplewood real estate prices for most of the 1990s. Two houses (including the one I mentioned above) sold in 2001 for right around their new assessment. The same house sold again in early 2005 for about 75% over assessed value. While I know I am guilty of trying to extrapolate from insufficient data I find the above interesting. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Smarty Jones Citizen Username: Birdstone Post Number: 638 Registered: 10-2005 |
Bajou- You could post thousands of links calling for a housing bubble to pop (and various reasons for why, many of which will focus on consumer spending slow down or higher interest rates). That doesn't change the fact that their isn't a correlation between housing prices and interest rates. I'll try and post a graph that will put you at ease......  The white line is the Schiller Housing Index, the Green Line is Fed Funds.....notice that the movement of the white line seems to have little, if anything to do with the movement of the Green line...there is a very simple epxlanation for this, which is because they LACK CORRELATION. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Smarty Jones Citizen Username: Birdstone Post Number: 639 Registered: 10-2005 |
Rastro, in your example, you are assuming varying degrees of appreciation....do you expect that various areas across town will have dramatically different rates of appreciation? If so, why? To the extent of your example? What do you anticipate will happen in a reval? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 3122 Registered: 5-2004 |
Smarty, to answer your second question first, I said that I think around 30-35% of residents will see a decrease, ranging from minuscule to moderate. I would guess from a couple of dollars to a couple of thousand. I doubt anyone will see their taxes drop by half. To answer your first, I am assuming varying degrees of appreciation mainly because that is the major impetus for a reval. Over time, certain sections of a town become more or less popular. Prices reflect that popularity, so appreciation in home values differs. In some sections of town, home values of have increase by 3-400% since the last reval. In others, it may be as little as 75%. If values do not change by differing amounts, everyone's assessment will remain the same relative to the everyone else, and no one's taxes will go up more than the increase in the town budget. Do you really believe everyone's home has increased in value by the same percentage in the past 15 years? Even if there is a 20% variation in price increases, it will lead to some homes having higher taxes than now, and others have lower taxes than now. It's just math. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 3123 Registered: 5-2004 |
To add a bit more detail: The lower the variation, the fewer people will see any change in their taxes. The greater the tax increase during the reval, the fewer people will see a decrease. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Alleygater Citizen Username: Alleygater Post Number: 2013 Registered: 10-2004 |
My guesses, housing prices will drop or stagnate as long as mortgage rates go up. Simple math, if rates are low, people have more money that they can spend on the property value. The theory being everyone wants to buy AS MUCH house as they can for their budget. Similarly, as long as tax rates go up, people will have less money to spend on their mortgage. We found that our taxes affected how much we could afford to pay per month on a mortgage. In fact taxes affected how much house we could afford in a dramatic way. If we moved somewhere with less taxes, we could GET MORE HOUSE. Question for me, is how much can taxes go up? If they go up too much we WILL have to sell eventually. Hopefully they won't go up too much higher, or at a faster rate than I can get raises. As for reform, I think the only way we are ever going to get on top of our taxes is if we earn more money through ratables. The village is mostly saturated with business. So the next most logical step would be to CONTINUE fixing up Springfield Avenue. It's definitely on the up swing. Continue putting in great shops that people want, and keep them in business by shopping there and VOILA, the town earns more money and doesn't need to up our real estate taxes (hopefully) as much. So the next question is how do we get this done? And what sorts of businesses do we WANT in town. I'm a fan of less brand name stores and more local businesses, BUT I can see the advantage of seeding the community with a few known brand anchor stores (as someone used the mall analogy), as long as SA doesn't become the new mini-strip mall and we limit the quantity and number of these types of stores. If parking is the issue, I would suggest dealing with it. It's NOT an insurmountable problem, I wouldn't think. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 11514 Registered: 5-2001 |
Assuming that Sbenois' doomsday scenario of 30% plus decreases in home prices doesn't occur I think the result of higher interest rates meaning fewer people can afford to buy will mean fewer houses for sale and those on the market will take longer to sell. Those who can will sit out the downturn, which was the case here in Maplewood and South Orange from around 1988 to 1998. Rastro, the difference between 75% appreciation and 300% is huge. The tax effect of this in a reval would be huge. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| jet Citizen Username: Jet Post Number: 1113 Registered: 7-2001 |
Take a longer view , by 2012 amazing new buildings & structures will dominate lower Manhattan . Maybe just maybe Cory Booker will make a difference in Newark. Higher density housing with services like we have here in Mwood will be what people will want in 5 yrs. . And with any luck , NJ will change how it pays for schools , uniquely benefiting MW/SO . It's a great place to live , if our taxes were similiar to say Ridgewood or Holmdel it would be to good to be true. Again in realestate , location, location. Manhattan will still be the center of the universe in 5 yrs. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| bklyntonj Citizen Username: Bklyntonj Post Number: 710 Registered: 7-2003 |
Smarty, you have a Bloomberg terminal at work/home? Or, do you work there? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tom Reingold Supporter Username: Noglider Post Number: 14285 Registered: 1-2003  |
Why should I care about the value of my house before I'm thinking of selling? I'm here to live, not as an investment. But I did consider resale when I bought. I figured Maplewood (where I now live) will see more shallow declines than others when times went bad, and that was one of many reasons I chose to buy in Maplewood. I am told that my house has appreciated by about 30% in the three years I've lived here. That's good enough for me. If they fall by 30%, then I'm fine, right? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tom Reingold Supporter Username: Noglider Post Number: 14286 Registered: 1-2003 |
Smarty Jones said: Here's a question....why on Earth do people from Maplewood seem to think that the state of New Jersey honestly wants/cares to reduce Maplewood/SO taxes? We're one of the wealthier towns in NJ? Who honestly believes any of our dopey local politicians who promises this will occur? ie, I feel justified in calling them dopey, the minute they start saying the answer to our local tax dilemna is to get free money from the State of NJ (who, if you haven't noticed, are trying to find ways to get more money from LOCAL MUNICIPALITIES!) DOH! I admit it's not likely that we'll see fundamental change any time soon. I can imagine, however, a tax system that shifts a lot of the burden from property to income taxes. That would leave a lot of people in Maplewood and South Orange paying more. I might be among those. I would still favor it, because I think it's the right thing to do. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 3127 Registered: 5-2004 |
Bob, I undestand that huge difference between 75% and 300% appreciation. Unfortunately, I think there are houses in both ranges here in SO. And therefore many people are going to get a rude awakening when their property taxes go up. But I don't think it will be nearly as bad as people are predicting, and I don't think it will be universal that everyone's taxes go up. That would require a pretty significant increase in the budget. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Joe R. Citizen Username: Ragnatela Post Number: 438 Registered: 6-2004 |
"Why should I care about the value of my house before I'm thinking of selling? I'm here to live, not as an investment." Tom: The loss of value in your home is a loss of equity. The loss of equity translates into a diminution in your ability to borrow against the equity in a pinch. If you're certain you'll never have to dip into equity to meet extraordinary expenses, then you are correct not to care. Having said that, in revals, the assessments go up and the rates go down. In a perfect world, in a town with a 50% avaerage ratio in the year before the reval and a $4 rate, with no need to increase the budget at the county, local or school board level, the assessment will double and the rate will drop to $2 and the taxes will not be increased. In this same perfect world, however, if your house was assessed at a percentage less than the average ratio of 50%, you are going to take a hit, but then again, you deserve it because, in theory, you were underassessed before the reval. In the real world, there will be the usual (if we're lucky) budget increases at all levels. That in combination with the underassessment factor noted above means an increase is likely. By the way, I've been underassessed in MPLDW every year since the first year of the last reval. If the number was correct at the time of the reval, in all liklihood, you too have been underassessed ever since. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Smarty Jones Citizen Username: Birdstone Post Number: 640 Registered: 10-2005 |
BBRG terminal is for work...... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tom Reingold Supporter Username: Noglider Post Number: 14289 Registered: 1-2003 |
Good point, Joe R. My strategy so far has been to pretend that home equity loans don't exist. So if I use one, it's to bail me out of an unexpected, precarious situation. If I forget about them and survive without them, then I'll be in good shape. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bajou Citizen Username: Bajou Post Number: 337 Registered: 2-2006 |
Dear Smarty: thanks for the Bloomberg graph. However what you have not factored in is that in the time frame your portay (95-to now) the average consumer has used his loan-ability to fuel his spending ability. That is the real problem here. That is why the market is worried about a bubble collapse. The average consumer in America has never been so overborrowed and the rise in interest plus the recent (last ten years) appetite to buy above a truly (paid by wages only) sustainable price have put alot of homeowners in a quite precarious position. From the Federal Reserve Board: http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Speeches/2005/20050527/default.htm and Consumer Spending and Housing Correlation DOW JONES in Economy | Real Estate | Retail Historically, consumer credit has roughly tracked overall changes in house prices. In other words, the consumers' ability to borrow -- and then go out and spend -- has been highly correlated to real estate changes (and hence, the importance of interest rates). In the attached chart, courtesy of Michael Panzner at Rabo Securities, the year-on-year changes in the U.S. Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's quarterly house price index is overlayed on a graph of consumer credit outstanding as a percentage of nominal GDP. In a healthy environment, you see real (after inflation) wages rise, and consumer spending going higher along with that. In a stimulus-driven environment like we've enjoyed for the past three years, instead of real wage growth, there's been a lot of consumer borrowing propelling their spending. I expect as the borrowing slows down, so too will the consumer spending.  I don't see how to put a positive spin on that. Source: Mike Panzner, Rabo Securities I am not saying that the graph lines are going to overlap but if you go look at the interest rates 1 year before the last crash then you can see a correlation. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 440 Registered: 4-2006 |
Interesting posts. Rastro - I see you are in your glory and even did a graph. Think your going to see a decrease in your taxes Rastro? Oh, yes, I forgot, everything depends on the BUDGET. (BTW, read the old thread SO on my comments there). Smarty- interesting graph that I am going to dissect when I have the time, other than this short post. Aquaman- All I know pal is that MHS does not have enough parking spaces if my child is a junior and I want to buy him/her a Ferrari to take to school. So instead of your questions tell me who your candidates are so I can research their positions and take them apart on MOL. You would rue the day I ever move to your town, bucko. Case- I do live in MSH and have no interests in M/SO or with/in your politicos. Bob K- Astute comments, very true as there is limited action in the MSH thread. As far as me being a "small businessman" you mean, like in stature? Please come to the MSH threads more. Unlike Aquababy, I enjoy "outsiders" comments. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 11516 Registered: 5-2001 |
Rastro - Probably the best way to get a peak at what will happen in SO is to look at the taxes on the new Pulte development. Look at www.gsmls.com. Basically taxes on units selling around $1,000,000 are in the $25k to $30k range. Common sense would indicate those are the benchmarks for your upcoming reval, although Pulte's tax lawyers may have gotten them somewhat of a deal. I think that there are houses selling north of $750k in Montrose with taxes well under $15k and there are houses in Tuxedo Park selling in the $400k range with taxes in the same range. I think some people are going to be happy, others very unhappy. Watch the Village Board to make sure they don't do what Vic and the kiddies did in Maplewood and vote a substantial budget increase under the theroy nobody would notice, or so it seemed to many of us at the time. FvF, that is why I used quotes for small. If I had been thinking straighter I would have used "independent". I never put any credibility in the rumor that you are a little person. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 442 Registered: 4-2006 |
Bob K- On SO reval I think attention to the appropriate comps in Montrose, and Wyoming and north of Wyoming area would be interesting. I know some in Montrose who are selling out of reval concerns. In previous posts in the SO section Rastro believed he would come out quite well from a reval. Let's see. The Pulte houses may not be the highest taxed come reval, even if their assessed value rises. Someone at this point should be able to ballpark the total assessed value on the town, especially if they are appraisers or have related experience. In Maplewood I would think they would do a re-assessment, as they are doing in MSH in 2007, not a reval, as was claimed in the News Record, as it is too short a time since their last reval. Maybe a reval is appropriate when they get their commercial ratables online on Springfield Ave.. Yes, I am not suffering from a "Napoleon" complex, , nor am I a political hack as some of your paranoid xenophobes here on MOL wish to believe. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Aquaman Supporter Username: Aquaman Post Number: 908 Registered: 8-2001 |
Fvf, "Yes, I am not suffering from a "Napoleon" complex, , nor am I a political hack as some of your paranoid xenophobes here on MOL wish to believe." Methinks you doth protest too much. "I know some in Montrose who are selling out of reval concerns" Really? I'm looking for a house in the Montrose area - post your friends' homes please, maybe we can cut out the middleman. "Maybe a reval is appropriate when they get their commercial ratables online on Springfield Ave.." There you go again! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 448 Registered: 4-2006 |
Aquaman- A Shakespearean political hanger-on? ( "Methinks you doth protest too much"). I do think-ith, which apparently is your problem. Be a real aquatic man. Post the names of your candidates in this thread. You have crossed the imaginary line with that last post and I would be glad to do some opposition research and post it here on MOL. (BTW I believe "there you go again" was copywrited by Ronald Reagan for political use. I will be calling the estate's attorneys to pursue you for copywrite infringment) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bajou Citizen Username: Bajou Post Number: 340 Registered: 2-2006 |
Wow fvf not used to such sharp words from u. I live in the Montrose section of South Orange and alot of the houses in the range of 750 are gigantic old Mansions that need another 250 grand to get fixed up. That might explain the lower taxes. You fix it you pay .... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 3129 Registered: 5-2004 |
FvF, chart not graph. A graph is pretty pictures. I didn't do one, so I can understand you not getting it. You ended the last thread with an inane comment that wasn't worth replying to. The fact that you don't understand what actually drives a reval (and the resulting tax changes) is your problem, not mine. Maybe you should go back to arguing about the MSH school board. My taxes will likely stay the same or go down a few dollars, as my home has increased in value less (as a percent) than most others near me (and in many pother neighborhoods). I do know one or two people whose taxes are very likely to go down. Not by a huge margin, but enough to be noticed. You have given nothing to back your assertions other than pithy or snide comments. Bob K, the taxes on the Pulte homes are based on current tax rates. It would be illegal for then to get any kind of "deal" from the tax assessor. When the townhouses started to sell, someone was told by the sales person that they were "working with" the tax assessor. But the tax assessor explained that it's a simple process - Base value of the house times some factor that Spitz can explain better than I can. That factor is based on hard numbers, not something arbitrary. " I think some people are going to be happy, others very unhappy. " That's exactly what I'm getting at. FvF has been going on about how everyone's taxes are going to go up, and that's a function of a reval. That no matter what, everyone's taxes go up. Then he changed his tune to say SOME people's taxes would go up, but that a reval in and of itself increases the town's revenues. For some reason he thinks I said I "would come out quite well from a reval." That is now at all what I said. I said that some people will see their taxes decrease. Perhaps someone could educate him on what happened in Maplewood. I believe at least a couple of people's taxes did actually go down, right? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 11517 Registered: 5-2001 |
A reassessment or a revaluation is revenue neutral, excepting any tax increases the local government, school board and country put through. In Maplewood about a quarter of the dwelling units saw a substantial decrease and a quarter saw a substantial (30 percent range) increase. The rest stayed within ten to fifteen percent of the previous taxes. Assessments aren't an exact science. I suspect that Pulte has a number of tax lawyers on staff to negotiate with assessors and tax boards on the subject. In any event, the houses and townhouses in the Pulte Pit are taxed based on current market value, more or less, and are unlikely to change substantially in the reval next year. As such, it is probably a pretty good guide. FvF, the State publishes a Table of Equalized Values for the counties to use when distributing taxes between towns. Obviously with a wide spread of assessment dates something like this has to be used. How accurate these are is an open question. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 449 Registered: 4-2006 |
Rastro- Calmn down man! Don't be so graph-chart sensitive! It was a quick post. In the SO thread I believe I was addressing what I believed was your contention that absent an increase in a town's budget a property's taxes would not go up, as a reval was tax neutral. I agreed that a reval is tax neutral in theory and that generally taxes (budgets) go up after a reval or reassessment, as some towns coincidentially find the need for more revenue at around or about the point of a new appraisal of properties. My sense is you were reading some of my posts as argument that everyone's taxes go up after a reval. But if you want to put words to my font, so be it. My point, which I indicated by example, was that if the property's share of the total town appraised value increased, it would be paying more taxes even if a town's budget (taxes) DID NOT go up. Given certain contractural costs most towns even if they hold the line, will have some form of increase ( employee healthcare, pension, sick time accumulation etc.) To me, I think you should consider applying to be the SO Tax Assessor, as you do a good job selling the benefits to SO of a reval in this thread. PS- Since when does "inane" not merit comment on MOL? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 450 Registered: 4-2006 |
Bajou- That's why it is important if you are a property owner to be aware of not only what the homes in your area have sold for but the condition they are in. I recall back in the day when I could have bought some really great houses in Montrose for 250k, (sigh). On a reval too, they should be coming around to see properties. Rely on yourself and not the reval company to get it right. I went with a friend to a meeting with a town's appraisal co. prior to their property's appraisal being finalized. The company shaved about 40k off the final figure because they were using different and more desirable styles of homes in the area for their comps and ignored one or two comps that were more favorable to the homeowner. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 451 Registered: 4-2006 |
Bob K- Am well aware of the Table. Nice to see you posting more, over in the MSH threads. On SO reval it would be interesting if Rastro or another SO poster can tell us how many properties have been taken off/added to the tax rolls since their last reval. Number of PILOTS, etc. Certain things may affect the final appraised value for the village. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Smarty Jones Citizen Username: Birdstone Post Number: 644 Registered: 10-2005 |
Questions for the group: 1) What are the Pulte Homes referenced hear? 2) Is a M/SO reval actually scheduled, or simply rumored? I thought the latter. Bajou: You threw out a lot of different points, so I'll try and address as best I can: 1- I've attached a graph from a different time period....the prior 20 years....same result. Housing prices and Interest rates simply aren't correlated.  2- Consumer Borrowing/Spending- Yes, the consumer may very well be overborrowed (and maybe they aren't, given the explosion of Americans Assets) That's a whole new argument. Consumer Spending is ALSO not correlated to House prices, either up or down. Showing charts of both of them is interesting, but worthless. These are simply facts, I am not making this up. I am merely showing you what is, and what is not "actually-factually" correlated. It will help you to sort through all the noise. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Walker Citizen Username: Fester Post Number: 259 Registered: 4-2003  |
Smarty: South Orange has been ordered by Essex County to have a reval complete by 2008, last night the village attorney made a brief comment that the bidding was being run under the open government process and had been recently put out to bid. I did not hear any further comment from the BOT on this at last nights meeting but I did miss parts of the meeting so cannot be sure. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bajou Citizen Username: Bajou Post Number: 341 Registered: 2-2006 |
I am sorry Smarty but consumer spending and overextensions are very much tied into buyability which is very much tied into houseprices. You are looking for the graphs to align and I already mentioned in my previous post that that's not what I am talking about. I am talking about a situation where several factors align and that will have an effect on the housing market. I do remember clearly when it happened last time and nobody wanted to hear about it then either. Do to the fact that you are posting Bloomberg charts I am assuming that you are in the finance industrie so we just have a different opinion on economic analysis. Here are some other facts I base my opinion on: New York Housing Market Compare Refinancing Loans. Compare rates from up to 4 lenders for refinance.Mirroring the increase in housing prices in other metropolitan areas of the nation, economists and real estate experts warn that the New York housing market may be a housing bubble ready to burst. However, homeowners who recall the housing slump attributed to the stock market crash of 1987 are also fearful of a market bubble. According to the Daily News, Jonathan Miller, president of Manhattan appraisal firm Miller Samuel, states that after the stock market crash, "property values plummeted. At the end of 1987, the median sale price of a Manhattan apartment peaked at $375,000. It bottomed out in late 1995 at $200,000 – a staggering 46.7% decrease – and took until late 1999 to recover to pre-crash levels. Since then, the median price soared to its current level of $705,000." Simply unsustainable. and
And some other facts that happend in 1986 (to reflect your chart) to lighten the conversation: Ronald Reagan is president of the US The US officially observes Martin Luther King Day as a national holiday for the first time The space shuttle Challenger explodes moments after lift off, killing 6 astronauts and a teacher A major nuclear disaster occurs at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in the Soviet Union Japanese video game maker Nintendo introduces its games to America US warplanes bomb Libyan headquarters in retaliation for terrorist attacks The Soviet Union launches the Mir space station IBM unveils the PC Convertible, the first laptop computer Charlotte Church, The Olsen twins, and Lindsay Lohan are born New York Mets win the World Series Chicago Bears win Superbowl XX Montreal Canadiens win the Stanley Cup Top Gun is the top grossing film "That's What Friends Are For" by Dionne & Friends spends the most time at the top of the US charts ALF, the Oprah Winfrey Show, and Pee-wee's Playhouse premiere |
