| Author | Message | ||
     Smarty Jones Citizen Username: Birdstone Post Number: 648 Registered: 10-2005 |
Bajou, I am not challenging your opinion that housing is going to crash. You probably can make a good/interesting argument to support that. You originally challenged my statement that Interest Rates and Housing prices are not corellated; they still aren't. This is a fact, not an opinion. I've seen the data, I've run the data, I've even showed you some obvious simple charts resulting from the data. Facts are facts, and no amount of popular journalism or pundit statements will change that. I'm not challenging any of your arguments supporting your opinion that housing is going to tank. (Although I'd be happy to discuss in a separate dedicated thread). | ||
| Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 3130 Registered: 5-2004  |
FvF, I will once again quote one of your original posts. "Don't kid yourself, revals and re-assessments do increase the amount of taxes brought in, otherwise towns would not do them." I'll let it stand on its own. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 453 Registered: 4-2006 |
Rastro- You are referring, once again, to a general statement I made in connection with your position that a reval is tax neutral, across the board, absent a rise in taxes due to an increased town budget. I did not believe it was neutral as to individual properties, even without a budget increase. In other words, it is tax neutral in theory, but not individual impacts. Assuming your sophistication on this reval issue I did not clearly detail what I meant about taxes, and in full, unfortunately leaving you in this position to continually club me with this one line on MOL. I believe you claimed in the earlier thread youself that towns do revals and re-assessments in connection with rasing budgets and collecting more money. Revals may also be a means, given significantly higher appreciation, of moving some of the tax burden to the commercial side, or otherwise. Could you please respond to my earlier post to Bob K, since you are the self-acknowledged SO reval expert. Many thanks. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 454 Registered: 4-2006 |
Some really great posts here, but what about these things : New Jersey is predicted to grow by one million new residents over a 10 year period. Many are projected to be immigrants and first-time home buyers, so there will be housing demand both in the starter home and the move up home categories. At least one major luxury developer has projected NJ home values as reaching European home price levels, given scarcity of land and restrictive building requirements and laws. A good number of developers are now investigating or developing "brownfields" site which are contaminated/polluted properties, due to the absence of affordable or buildable land in NJ. How do you think these things effect what you are discussing in this thread? | ||
| Tom Reingold Supporter Username: Noglider Post Number: 14301 Registered: 1-2003  |
factvsfiction, I take your 10:46 post to mean: Revaluation doesn't raise taxes overall but it will raise them for some individuals and businesses. However, revaluations often coincide with tax increases, so most people's taxes go up at the same time. This is not caused by the revaluation, but it seems so, because of the timing. If you don't mean that, please clarify. | ||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 11527 Registered: 5-2001 |
Smarty - interest rates effect both supply and demand. As interest rates climb there are fewer people who can qualify for a mortgage. On the other side of the same coin, supply shrinks. Developers don't build new houses and people are less likely to put their homes up for sale, especially move up buyers and empty nesters, both of which make up a fairly large chunk of the resale homes on the market. What is the index base for your graph? Having bought and sold homes during the period covered I am not going to disagree with the peaks and valleys shown. However, I can't relate it to actual price changes. I ain't no financial type.  | ||
| Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 3131 Registered: 5-2004 |
I have no idea what has been taken on or off the tax rolls since the last reval. Why do you care? None of this will affect you. As for your snide comment about me being "the self-acknowledged SO reval expert" the fact that you didn't seem to understand how a reval works does not make me the expert. if I explain that 2+2 is 4 to a 4 year old, that doesn't make me a math expert. You wrote that I "claimed in the earlier thread ... that towns do revals and re-assessments in connection with raising budgets and collecting more money." Actually, I said that some towns take advantage of revals to raise their budgets and "hide" the increase in the reval. I never said that revals, in and of themselves, cause a town to take in more money, as you did. And you said that everyone's taxes go up when a reval is done. I also never said that a reval is tax neutral across the board. I clarified my statement to say that it is revenue neutral. I am tired of rehashing the same conversation over and over again. What you wrote is available in the other threads. You are now changing your statements. That's fine. | ||
| Smarty Jones Citizen Username: Birdstone Post Number: 649 Registered: 10-2005 |
First index was the Shiller Housing index, only goes back to 1995. 2nd index is the Office of Federal Housing index (www.ofheo.gov/hpi.asp) which goes back to '76 and you can break it out regionally, as I have done for Mid-Atlantic. I suppose my underlying point (if there ever was one, this all started as me having too much time on my hands late saturday night and having the need to babble away on my computer) is that people misinterpret interest rates, and avoid seeing them for what they are, which is a gauge on Inflation, Currency and Credit Risk. Since US credit is assumed to be the strongest available in the world, and since we're already dealing with USD, than to the typical US citizen, it really is only useful to gauge Inflation risk. Yes, the rest is all inexplicably intertwined (supply/demand/prices/leverage/spending/consumer/etc. etc.), but nothing can be gleened by examining interest rates. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 455 Registered: 4-2006 |
Rastro- It's clear you take anything said, in jest or admiration, as some sort of slight. Nothing negative ever intended on my end. However I have found your posts to be the ones containing a snide tone, of superior knowledge or understanding on subjects. I have repeatedly explained what I meant to say on the subject of your reval. Some people always feel the need to win a non-argument. Whatever. I guess anyone discussing your reval who isn't in SO annoys you, I on the other hand would like to hear comments from people who don't live in MSH on our re-assessment. To some people this stuff is an interesting subject to discuss. Doesn't mean they hate a town or are trying to run it down in some way. Don't know if you are a SO politician or politically connected or involved, and that is why you get annoyed. Your ideas, and that of other posters here, on who goes up, who goes down, on a SO reval can be fleshed out a bit by simply going to your local assessor's office and looking at the sr-1a sales data on file for your area of town and the relevant period used for reval purposes. Anyway you will know soon enought and I guess it will be on here as a thread at some point. As a general question for all posters, if a reval is the greatest thing since sliced bread, why have so many towns in New Jersey not done them? What's the rationale for avoiding them? Frankly, I would like to see the MSH re-assessment held until at least 2008 in order to see where prices are going and have it a bit more settled. If you have a significant drop, then people come in with tax appeals, which kind of negates the value of a new, but too-soon appraisal. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 456 Registered: 4-2006 |
Tom Reingold- Having read one of your old threads, do you know if you had moved from Edison to Metuchen instead of Maplewood, you still wouldn't have had a reval? Last one as I understand it was in the '80s according to an associate who lives there. None apparently planned. Edison taxes are also going up significantly. | ||
| cmontyburns Citizen Username: Cmontyburns Post Number: 1830 Registered: 12-2003  |
There is no economic basis whatsoever to believe that the value of anyone's home will actually DECLINE. The overall average price paid could fall, but it would almost certainly signify that more homes at the lower end of the market are being sold, not that values have slipped. We don't live in the middle of Ohio. Our home prices have everything to do with New York City. And the rental inventory in nyc is once again tight. Your home may not double in value during the time you live in it, but if it actually declines, it means the New York economy has collapsed. In which case, you will likely have far bigger problems than the value of your home. As for viable doomsday scenarios: I'd go for property taxes. There are likely plenty of folks in town for whom a big increase would spell the end. Again, though, speaking strictly in terms of home values, our ridiculous property taxes are mitigated by ridiculous rents and property purchase prices in NYC. That doesn't mean you'll be able to afford to live in South Orange/Maplewood anymore, but it does mean there will still be people who want to buy your house. | ||
| Tom Reingold Supporter Username: Noglider Post Number: 14303 Registered: 1-2003 |
Mr. Burns, are you saying that declining (or stagnant) real estate prices in NYC could only come along with an economic collapse? It seems to me that prices could stagnate or fall without total disaster. But of course, I could be wrong. I hope I'm not. I figure the recent trend was too steep and needs a correction. And before this morning, I wouldn't have cared, because, as I have said, I'm not about to sell, and I'm not borrowing against my equity. But this morning, I got laid off, so I'm a tiny step closer to caring. But I don't believe I'll sell just because I'm laid off. I suspect I'll get another job soon and stay where I am. | ||
| Tom Reingold Supporter Username: Noglider Post Number: 14304 Registered: 1-2003 |
factvsfiction, no, I didn't know much about property taxes in Edison or Metuchen. I rented an apartment in Edison and was well shielded from the reality of taxes. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 457 Registered: 4-2006 |
Smarty- And what factor do you use for "perception"? It seems to me that buyers' perception of the desirability of a town is the great intangible in what they are willing to pay and why. Despite high home prices paid in the mid-80s, some NJ towns' prices held up much, much better on re-sale in the mid-90s or appreciated, than did others. I think across New Jersey towns and their leaderships got "fat and happy" with the growth and prosperity of property values in their towns, and didn't put away their nuts for a cold winter, so to speak, in terms of using these go-go years in creating ratables, selling off unusable or undesired town properties, or agressively finding areas of shared services with other towns to reduce costs, etc., to offset any downturns, or higher State and local taxes. ( Xenophobes- Please don't think these comments are about YOUR town, many thanks). While we can't do much about interest rates or the price of a barrel of oil, we can engage in smart brand managment and the marketing of our communities. This to me is how you get through a rough patch, if there is in fact, going to be one. | ||
| Aquaman Supporter Username: Aquaman Post Number: 909 Registered: 8-2001  |
fvf, "While we can't do much about interest rates or the price of a barrel of oil, we can engage in smart brand managment and the marketing of our communities. This to me is how you get through a rough patch, if there is in fact, going to be one." Yawn. Rough patch, hmmm. Now that you mention it, Wow! What timing! Say, fvf, do you know we have an election coming up in Maplewood? Do you think any of the candidates could possibly lead us through the impending rough patch? Thankey! | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 459 Registered: 4-2006 |
Aquaman- You are really getting ponderous and obsessive about your political campaign in Maplewood. Are you not? Yawn. It seems to me that given your various theories about why people post on MOL you would better serve the community by investigating the possibility of life on other planets. You seem very Mulder-like in any event. Perhaps the Venusians will endorse your candidates? "The Truth Is Out There" Aquaman | ||
| Case Citizen Username: Case Post Number: 1578 Registered: 2-2005 |
Ponderous and obsessive? Post Number: 459 Registered: 4-2006 | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 463 Registered: 4-2006 |
Case- So 459 posts online is now suspect or a crime? You should either join Aquaman in investigating life on other planets, or be writing books on imagined Maplewood political conspiracies that no one will have an interest in reading. | ||
| Case Citizen Username: Case Post Number: 1580 Registered: 2-2005 |
I don't think it's a crime... but I think it's an interesting situation that someone who posts so much would call anyone "obsessive". What would YOU call such a high posting rate? Not to mention that many of your posts tend to... what's the word I'm looking for.... roll on for quite a bit? | ||
| ffof Citizen Username: Ffof Post Number: 4725 Registered: 5-2001  |
everyone's an addict here. Nothing to see. Move along. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 468 Registered: 4-2006 |
Case- If you are not similiarly articulate, is it my fault? | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 469 Registered: 4-2006 |
ffof- Would you prefer we had heroin or sex addictions? To quote you from another thread, "oy vey". | ||
| ffof Citizen Username: Ffof Post Number: 4726 Registered: 5-2001 |
? | ||
| Case Citizen Username: Case Post Number: 1582 Registered: 2-2005 |
Articulate, or just long-winded? Don't flatter yourself. | ||
| Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 3146 Registered: 5-2004 |
He's making friends all over the place, I see... | ||
| Case Citizen Username: Case Post Number: 1585 Registered: 2-2005 |
I'm still laughing about the 'ponderous and obsessive' comment, myself. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 477 Registered: 4-2006 |
Case- A legend in your own mind? Rastro- You need me. Otherwise you would waste less time posting on MOL and have to work. Perhaps I am your slacker-enabler? | ||
| Case Citizen Username: Case Post Number: 1593 Registered: 2-2005 |
These pithy little comments seem somewhat out of place, to be honest. What exactly are you trying to refer to? From what I can see here, I'm not talking about myself at all - where is this "legend" nonsense coming from? Or are you just jotting down the first thing that pops into your head? Feel free to go off on another ludicrous tangent about life on other planets - I'm sure that's easier than answering the real question... which is how someone with so many posts can dare call someone 'ponderous and obsessive'. That is STILL my favorite 'dumb comment' on the board this month. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 479 Registered: 4-2006 |
Case- Have read your comments on other posts. You seem to consider yourself " all that" IMHO. Plus I don't like bullying behavior, which in my impression is being directed towards me. Hope I am wrong. Without people posting topics here there would not be much to respond to. You should be happy I post threads in which you can show your superior intellect and considerable knowledge. Quit while your ahead. I don't much care about your petty politics in Maplewood. The more you want to make my posts an issue because YOU believe they are Maplewood focused, the less positive online p.r you make. People attack other people in the perception of voters, because they believe it is a diversion from their candidate's negatives or performances. If I am some sort of "plant" you seem to be playing into my hands then. I always welcome a civil conversation. Let's try it. | ||
| Case Citizen Username: Case Post Number: 1594 Registered: 2-2005 |
Wow, that last post really seems obsessive... not to mention ponderous. Perhaps the next 30 days will see another 500 posts from you, and we can see if the situation improves.  | ||
| Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 3156 Registered: 5-2004 |
FvF, amazing how I survived for years before you arrived here. What did I ever do to keep myself engaged? I need you like I need poison ivy. Yes, it feels better to scratch it, but it feels better still to have it gone. As Case points out, you talk of others' obsessions, yet you have become the most prolific poster (per day) very quickly. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 486 Registered: 4-2006 |
Case: Stop projecting now. | ||
| Case Citizen Username: Case Post Number: 1602 Registered: 2-2005 |
Another little detour, swerving madly trying to avoid the real issue. Don't feel bad, Fact. You're not the first person to come off the rails in a situation like this. If only there were another thread on the board you were active with... that way you could continue to post a lot and at the same time avoid the ugly truth that you're seeing on THIS thread. You should hit 500 by the weekend - great job! | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 490 Registered: 4-2006 |
Case- Amazing how I can get your post numbers up, isn't it? What can I say? Some lead. Others follow. | ||
| Case Citizen Username: Case Post Number: 1604 Registered: 2-2005 |
And some just blather on and on and on, ignoring questions and trying to skirt any questions that may come up. You're so good at running your mouth - I'm surprised that you can't seem to address the last few posts directly. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 522 Registered: 4-2006 |
Case- I apologize for taking up so much of your valuable time having to be on MOL setting me straight, and away from walking a circular route to your car and otherwise practing pepper spray cannister and car jacking self-protection procedures as you relate in another thread. My bad. Guess we all have our issues. Huh? | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 523 Registered: 4-2006 |
On Friday USA Today reported that baby boomers are counting on their real estate (read homes) to fund their retirement. Millions of boomers see their homes as a "bank" in which to extract equity to pay for retirement. Also noted is that housing stocks have recently hit an all year low ( Terry Keenan ). If we have used our housing appreciation to fuel the consumer economy, and housing prices decline, and interest rates climb, then consumer spending goes.... ? | ||
| sbenois Supporter Username: Sbenois Post Number: 15073 Registered: 10-2001  |
into the toilet | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 524 Registered: 4-2006 |
sounds about right | ||
| Case Citizen Username: Case Post Number: 1633 Registered: 2-2005 |
Wow, another idiotic post! I'm not sure how helping someone with personal-defense questions relates to this thread, but I suppose it was easier for you to simply avoid things here for a bit. And here we are at the weekend and you've got your 500 posts. All highly informative and helpful posts, I'm sure. |
