| Author | Message | ||
     Me2 Citizen Username: Me2 Post Number: 247 Registered: 6-2003 |
Just FYI... Daily, I receive GSMLS listings for several NJ towns (Union County). This is an automated service through our realtor. I get new listings and also listings for houses that have had a change in price. For the past few weeks, the price reductions have well outnumbered the new listings... and the reductions are often significant. Just thought folks might find this interesting... especially first-time buyers. | ||
| Nancy - LibraryLady Supporter Username: Librarylady Post Number: 3554 Registered: 5-2001  |
Interest rates are going up and it really is a zero sum game. Prices have to come down. | ||
| Debby Citizen Username: Debby Post Number: 2325 Registered: 5-2001 |
Here in south FL there has been a dramatic drop since last summer, and houses are often staying on the market for several months. Prices here had run up continually and dramatically since I got here in 2003 (In that time the price of my house probably went up about $200K) and I think people are pricing their homes with that mindset - not the new reality. I imagine my home went down about 30k since last summer. | ||
| HOMMELL Citizen Username: Hommell Post Number: 222 Registered: 11-2005 |
Price reductions outnumbering new listings. Does that indicate that houses priced right have sold and those overpriced are staying on the market? The information provided is too vague to justify the title "Wow, House Prices are falling", or any conclusions about different subsets of the housing market. | ||
| Me2 Citizen Username: Me2 Post Number: 248 Registered: 6-2003 |
I am not providing a scientific study. Merely sharing my personal observations of the data I am receiving on GSMLS listings in Union county. My reaction when seeing the listings over the last few weeks was "wow, ...falling." Simply that. | ||
| Lou Citizen Username: Flf Post Number: 173 Registered: 8-2005 |
i'm not surprised. it already seems like the houses are in the market for much longer time period then they were last year or the year before. i don't see as many houses selling in a day or 2 as i was used to. many are taking weeks or months... (this is just my personal opinion based on what I have seen) | ||
| greenetree Supporter Username: Greenetree Post Number: 7994 Registered: 5-2001  |
We discussed this awhile back - people saw that their neighbor got some outrageous price and rushed to put their house on the market. Never mind the fact that the neighbor had done a lot of work, renovated, whatever. I remember some ridiculous asking prices ($600-$700) for unrenovated homes near Maplecrest Park. I don't think the market is "falling"; I think it may be getting more realistic. People aren't willing to pay $600k for a house that needs $150k worth of renovations, which would bring it's value to $650k, anymore. I don't blame them. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 652 Registered: 4-2006 |
Me2- You may have missed it, but a house on Mountain Avenue is reported to have recently sold for 2.2 mil. Not a bad chunk of change for Maplewood. | ||
| Smarty Jones Citizen Username: Birdstone Post Number: 719 Registered: 10-2005 |
Fornutately for us in Maplewood, our community is only improving, and our schools are only getting better, so we should see an increase in value of our homes while those in Union fall flat... er.....wait a minute...hmmmmm.....just looked at the last school report.......maybe the OPPOSITE is happening...... Oh well....state and national school reports don't matter anyway. | ||
| dougw Citizen Username: Dougw Post Number: 841 Registered: 3-2005 |
I never understood the fascination with days on the market and asking prices. I understand that this does give some of estimation of demand but isn't final sale price what really matters? I think this figure is up over a year ago. | ||
| wnb Citizen Username: Wnb Post Number: 407 Registered: 8-2001 |
I agree that change in asking price is not a reliable indicator of much, unless you cross-correlate that data somehow with comps (which would bring actual sale price into the equation and make the analysis more meaningful). | ||
| Spqr Citizen Username: Spqr Post Number: 95 Registered: 9-2004 |
I routinely look at GSMLS.COM for Maplewood and have noticed houses listed for much longer than last year and have also noticed that several houses for sale in my neighborhood have dropped their asking prices once or twice already. I'm referring to houses that are in good condition, don't need major renovations done, have had major renovations done in the past few years. Last year, comparable houses in the same neighborhood were listing at the prices these current houses were listed at and were snapped up within two weeks of listing for at least 10% over list. This is not a scientific evaluation, mathematical correlation or statistical analysis...just some anecdotal observations like ME2's. | ||
| Dobler88 Citizen Username: Dobler88 Post Number: 112 Registered: 7-2005 |
Two things: 1) houses that went over asking in the frenzied market went over b/c they were either priced low to intentionally create a market or the demand was such that the ask price wasn't reflective of the market 2) like many of you said, the price drops now are actually corrections to people's overly greedy ask prices. Instead of appreciating at 10% a year, it's more like 5% now--and people think they can ask more than what the market will bear because they think it is last summer...and it isnt...but that doesn't mean home VALUES are dropping, it just means reality checks are in order. Disclaimer: this is an observation only and not a prediction or analysis. | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 657 Registered: 4-2006 |
Some observations, IMHO: People are not generally "greedy". A lot follow the old saw of getting quotes from three different realtors of what their houses are worth. Most people who have to or want to sell, list their homes in a rational ballpark figure because they want or need to go. Their realtors want that too, if they have one, so they can get a quick turn around on the commission and close a deal. In my experience realtors are happiest when they close a transaction mucho quick. Those who list their homes too low, in order, in their minds, to get competitive bids or push their house up in price are morons generally. They won't get it, and if someone offers what they are asking they are stuck. Their realtors can sue them if they don't accept their listed asking price. I know one guy who had a problem of this nature. For you SOMA people I would go by what the higher taxed properties in your town are being listed at. Read my earlier post. | ||
| Spare_o Supporter Username: Spare_o Post Number: 423 Registered: 9-2003 |
My neighbor's house sold in early April. It was not underpriced, based upon comps in the neighborhood, IMO. There were 6 offers, I think. OTOH, another house on the block that was gutted and flipped was on the market empty for quite a while. | ||
| cmontyburns Citizen Username: Cmontyburns Post Number: 1862 Registered: 12-2003  |
Few other observations: -- This post was started with "evidence" about falling house prices in Union County. What does that have to do with South Orange and Maplewood? Our home prices are what they are because of NYC commuters, not people flocking here from other parts of NJ. -- There have always been plenty of homes that sit on the MLS. "Hot" houses, the ones that sell at the open house, rarely stay on the MLS longer than a few days, if they make it to the MLS at all. Friends just paid $23,000 over asking price for a home in South Orange, which they purchased after two days on the market, after being outbid on two other homes (one in maplewood, one in south orange). I'm not saying things are or aren't cooling, just cautioning against reading too much into limited observations. | ||
| S.L.K.s. Ghost Citizen Username: Scrotisloknows Post Number: 1654 Registered: 10-2005 |
I still think location and reputation play a large role in this. Apparently SOMA is still the place to live. Houses are selling around me for 400k in the Hilton Section, some taking longer than others but they are still selling. -SLK | ||
| hch Citizen Username: Hch Post Number: 284 Registered: 8-2002 |
I think market has leveled out. Prices that are falling are people who listed their houses too high, expecting premium off of last year's levels. | ||
| red Citizen Username: Redy67 Post Number: 5734 Registered: 2-2003  |
I think there are alot of people selling in Maplewood/South Orange. Maybe it is me, I know it is the time to sell, but it seems like there is more "stock" than there are buyers. | ||
| Richard Citizen Username: Rikky Post Number: 90 Registered: 7-2005 |
The Otteau report, the definitive source for NJ real estate information says inventory is up 71% over last year. That's right 71%. We're approaching 31,000 houses listed in the GSMLS. Don't be fooled thinking we're returning to a market of 5% annual gains. The cycle is clear and historically proven. Higher inventory = lower prices. Even without higher interest rates the market appears to be exhausting itself. My own expectation is for flat to slightly declining prices over the next 24 months. | ||
| greenetree Supporter Username: Greenetree Post Number: 8019 Registered: 5-2001 |
I stand by my assertion that houses in spectacular condition still go for impressive amounts. Two on my block just sold within a couple weeks for asking (true; not the "days" they used to). They have both been redone top to bottom. I agree that the market is leveling off. But it seems like buyers expect, and are willing to pay for, a house in move-in condition. With this much inventory, why should someone go thru the agita of buying a house that "needs work" even if it is cheaper? | ||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 11802 Registered: 5-2001 |
I think condition becoming more of a factor in house sales is a sign of a softer market with more inventory available. Back when the reval was done, according to CVI and Ed Gallante, condition wasn't a factor in the high demand/low supply market of 2000 and they probably had a point. | ||
| Dave Supporter Username: Dave  Post Number: 9868 Registered: 4-1997  |
House near us received 4 offers and was sold in 5 days. Gone are the days of 5 offers in 4 days. | ||
| Monster© Supporter Username: Monster Post Number: 3573 Registered: 7-2002  |
 | ||
| cmontyburns Citizen Username: Cmontyburns Post Number: 1867 Registered: 12-2003 |
Still waiting for someone to point to ANY evidence that house prices are actually DECLINING in Maplewood or South Orange. It's much easier to suggest the market has reached its peak. People have been doing that for 10 years. | ||
| red Citizen Username: Redy67 Post Number: 5768 Registered: 2-2003 |
I don't know about houses prices declining, just that they are sitting... | ||
| Tom Reingold Supporter Username: Noglider Post Number: 14696 Registered: 1-2003  |
So far, there is no evidence that prices are declining. There is evidence that they are sitting. This might lead us to believe that they will decline soon, but there is also reason to believe they won't. Time will tell. | ||
| red Citizen Username: Redy67 Post Number: 5771 Registered: 2-2003 |
Thanks Tom, you said exactly what I was trying to  | ||
| notehead Supporter Username: Notehead Post Number: 3426 Registered: 5-2001  |
I think that property prices are sitting, perhaps even dozing, but the only bathroom is downstairs, so they are inevitably going to decline. However, as we all know, if a bathroom is added to the 2nd floor, then prices will at least remain at their current level, even if the market declines (in search of cookies in the kitchen). | ||
| HOMMELL Citizen Username: Hommell Post Number: 228 Registered: 11-2005 |
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/moneymag_realestate/snapshots/228.html | ||
| Factvsfiction Citizen Username: Factvsfiction Post Number: 669 Registered: 4-2006 |
My comment is that community desirability to buyers is very specific and not a function of an overall market or number of listings on that market. SOMA adjusted asking price to taxes sometime ago, so is in less risk of depreciation, just limited appreciation. The New York move-up market remains strong, so that SOMA maintains a good comparative value appeal, even without developing new commercial ratables that reduce residential property taxes, FOR NOW. More ratables are critical for the future. SOMA schools are more desirable than the NYC public system, and offer clear comparative benefits. MSH is in worse shape, IMHO , as taxes have increased and value not been added in terms of the educational system to support sustained price appreciation. | ||
| greenetree Supporter Username: Greenetree Post Number: 8026 Registered: 5-2001 |
RE: Hommell's limk. It drives me nuts when suburban Essex is combined with Newark/Irvington in these reports. The stats are totally skewed. Even with medians instead of means, the financials are too different from town to town and even sections of towns. I find them useless. | ||
| Tom Reingold Supporter Username: Noglider Post Number: 14699 Registered: 1-2003 |
I agree with greenetree. I believe areas with high values tend to stagnate whereas other areas lose value. Mean averages and medians hide that fact. We want to know the slopes of the values over time, not the average values at given points in time. Lumping Maplewood with Irvington is useless for Maplewoodians and Irvingtonians alike. | ||
| Cynicalgirl Citizen Username: Cynicalgirl Post Number: 2860 Registered: 9-2003  |
Agree with greenetree. Shoot, I'd like to know this stuff by Maplewood neighborhood! Once and awhile, I got to gsmls or similar and try to detect which houses are where based on info about schools and similar. And then periodically you get those little realtor mailers about "comps" in your area. I mean we all know that all things about the house being equal, what part of town it's in makes quite a difference in price. | ||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 11809 Registered: 5-2001 |
The Newark/Union area is a standard metro statistical area set up by, I believe, the cesnus bureau. While it includes Newark and Irvington it also includes Short Hills, Livingston, Roseland, Essex Fells, Summit, etc. If you look at the more detailed statistics available from people like Domania.com Maplewood and South Orange have average appreciation for the towns mentioned above. | ||
| greenetree Supporter Username: Greenetree Post Number: 8032 Registered: 5-2001 |
Bob - SMSAs are good for some things and not for others. Cutting financial data is definitely not one of them. So, nosy neighbor question: where can you find out how much a house has recently sold for? Most of these sites have horrific lag times. | ||
| red Citizen Username: Redy67 Post Number: 5783 Registered: 2-2003 |
You can, I honestly don't know where....there is a listing we have received from realtors showing how much houses have sold for in our area. | ||
| LilLB Citizen Username: Lillb Post Number: 1784 Registered: 10-2002  |
domania.com isn't bad. I see sales in my area as recent as last month. Not sure if it includes all sales, but it may have what you're looking for. | ||
| Bob K Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 11814 Registered: 5-2001 |
www.domania.com The information doesn't become public until after closing and when the deed is registered with the county. | ||
| HOMMELL Citizen Username: Hommell Post Number: 229 Registered: 11-2005 |
Or this: http://www.otteau.com/The_Otteau_Report/2006.Q1.EssexCounty.pdf |
