| Author | Message | ||
     Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 668 Registered: 5-2004  |
This is not meant to be an inflamatory post/thread. I'm curious what people think of the direction our country is going in outside the war on terror, and our place in the world community. Many seem to think we are invincible. I wonder how many in the British empire (or any empire going back to the Romans) thought that as they began their decline The US has always had a strong economy - the strongest economy in the world - to back its national debt. Countries around the world use US Treasury notes as a stable, certain investment. The US uses this money to fund various programs to further improve its economy, and give the dollar security. Recently, however, central bankers around the world have expressed concern about the dollar, and are moving recerves to the Euro, rather than the dollar. A few choice quotes from a recent Washington Times article:
From Asia Times Online - granted, a bit hyperbolic:
Note, this ignores the recently-released reports of surges in the US economy toward the end of 2004. And lastly, an interesting article from Slate on a CIA report predicting a decline is the US global dominance (a bit obvious, given the near-certain rise of China and India as a major economic powers). So while we like to think of ourselves as World leaders (and for the most part, we are and will be for a long time), the winds of change are already blowing. I wonder where our country will be in the world in 15-20 years. And I really, really wish we could get CNNI or BBC World in the US. | ||
| Strawberry Supporter Username: Strawberry Post Number: 4377 Registered: 10-2001 |
We need to eliminate welfare for those who chose to have babies rather than work. We need to protect SS, so it never goes bankrupt. We must continue keeping corporate taxes low so we can develop better technology and job, while increasing our exporting capabilities. We must continue to fight terrorism so we aren't hit with attacks that destroy our infrastructure such as Wall Street, etc. Plenty to do, we will always be a dominant player but with China now purchasing about 3/4 of the world's steel, we will have company. | ||
| Local_1_crew Citizen Username: Local_1_crew Post Number: 372 Registered: 3-2004 |
all we have to do is create the alternative to petroleum, which we will run out of in the next 50 years according to the production curve, and the world will be at our feet. | ||
| sbenois Citizen Username: Sbenois Post Number: 13029 Registered: 10-2001  |
We are in seriously deep doo doo. | ||
| Dr. Winston O'Boogie Citizen Username: Casey Post Number: 1008 Registered: 8-2003  |
how many of you laughed hysterically at Howard Dean when he suggested the U.S. should plan for a future when we aren't the world's sole dominant power? | ||
| Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 671 Registered: 5-2004 |
Straw, I agree with most of what you say, but your last paragraph, specifically "we will always be a dominant player" is not really based on much. In 15 years, we will likely not be the world largest economy. In 50 years, I'd be surprised if we were the only superpower - or if the term even meant anything anymore. Local, is that all we need to do? Well then I guess we can all just sit back and relax.  Given that we are the largest consumer of petroleum products in the world, you'd think we'd have been spending more on developing energy sources all along. We've been dependent on foreign oil for years. The oil "shortage" of the 70s should have woken us up, but we're politically uninterested. | ||
| Rastro Citizen Username: Rastro Post Number: 672 Registered: 5-2004 |
One implication of my original post is that interest rates are going to have to rise significantly if we are to be able to continue to fund our deficits. Money is flowing out of dollars and into Euros. And the indications from the central banks is that this trend will accelerate. The return that foreign investors will require to invest in dollars will need to increase, just as bonds with higher risk require a higher return. That's not to say the US is in danger of defaulting. But when the currency is dropping in relation to the Euro, the interest rate needs to incorporate losses due to forex. Shoring up the dollar will be critical to maintaining our current debt (debt, not deficit) load. | ||
| Bobkat Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 7391 Registered: 5-2001 |
Another interesting sidelight is that currently Social Security collects about 25% more than it needs for current benefits and that excess is used to help finance the debt. With the Bush plan for SS a lot of that money will no longer be available for buying government bonds. I think Great Britain always thought they would continue to be the major world power they were before WWII. The war cost them so much in money, manpower and their Empire and that is no longer the case. With the trade imbalances we run with China and India we are basically financing their emergence as major financial powerhouses. | ||
| Eric Wertheim Citizen Username: Bub Post Number: 3 Registered: 1-2005 |
These kinds of predictions are very shakey relying, as they do, on the continuation of a straight line trend. In the 1970s, a common belief among intellectuals was that the U.S. was in irreversible decline in the face of the ever expanding Soviet Union. They crumpled, we bounced back. In the 80s, our economic and character faults were held up against the Japanese juggerenaut. They have been in crumplehood for a good 15 years now. We bounced back vigorously. I'm not saying the issues raised above aren't serious but things always change. | ||
| Bobkat Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 7392 Registered: 5-2001 |
But probably not with Bush. Sometimes I think he doesn't care about the financial side of things because he expects "The Rapture" any minute now, as was the case with Reagan's first EPA director, who couldn't understand why people were concerned with the enviornment because the world was going to end by 2000 or so. | ||
| Strawberry Supporter Username: Strawberry Post Number: 4378 Registered: 10-2001 |
Rastro, AS long as we have the bombs we will be a dominant player. That's just the reality of life today. | ||
| tjohn Citizen Username: Tjohn Post Number: 2886 Registered: 12-2001  |
The USSR had lots of bombs and look where they are now. It takes a lot more than a strong military to be a major player on the world stage. | ||
| Strawberry Supporter Username: Strawberry Post Number: 4387 Registered: 10-2001  |
let's avoid comparing Capitalism to communism, Tjohn. It's just not the same thing. | ||
| Michael Janay Citizen Username: Childprotect Post Number: 1506 Registered: 1-2003  |
All these central banks are doing is hedging. Its common as valuations fall and others rise. There is far more concern about euro stability that dollar stability because the european countries that compost the EU have extremely bloated debt ratios, high unemployment, and stagnant economies. Look at Germany, they have a HUGE trade surplus, and their economy is in the crapper. But hey, no deficits. Our debt to GDP ratio is still about the best in the world. Even with deficits adding to governmtntal debts we are far far far better than any eurpoean country AND far better than any asian country with a free market. That distinction is important as international lenders are very wary to lend to a country where the government can do anything they want to affect the value of the currency. China is not a safe bet yet. (the governement bonds that is) Other countries know it too. They don't trust the Chinese government (and they shouldn't). We are always going to be the leader. That is as long as the democrats don't F**K it all up with higher taxes, more entitlements, more regulations, and stupidity like "Fair Trade". As fo the UK, their decline had much more to do with the socialist movement than the expenses of the war. When the "Commonwealth" replaced the Empire that was the end of Britian as a true superpower. Sure economics were a factor, but the plan of all commonwealth nation states working together towards a common good flopped totally (as it always does). If the Empire were still around today, they would be a major player, guaranteed. Don't believe the scare articles. Look at these other countries debt to GDP ratios, and even their projections. China will NEVER overcome us economically. NEVER. Per Capita GDP growth is a fraction of ours, and with 1.5 billion people it never will come close. Communism will collapse under its own weight and China will be in economic turmoil for decades... just like Japan is now. India is hardly better. No central banker is banking on Rupees. Look, I wish Bush would cut a Trillion dollars worth of government programs in the next budget, eliminate pork, and truly eliminate waste (we have a government contract, and you wouldn't believe how hard it is to sell the government something they have already agreed to buy). That would make me happy, give us a 500 billion surplus immediately, but it will never happen. Regardless, worrying that the US is falling behind in the world is at this point, downright silly. This has nothing to do with bombs or military strength. We have the freest market, the strongest per capita gdp, and a system that truly rewards innovation. All we need is lower corporate tax rates and we'll steal compainie away from every corner of the globe. | ||
| tjohn Citizen Username: Tjohn Post Number: 2887 Registered: 12-2001 |
Straw, Germany and Japan were both capitlistic and both thought that bombs alone were enough. They were both wrong. If a country doesn't have something to offer beyond bombs, they won't be major player. To the extent we are great, it is because we have championed the poor, the oppressed, the huddled masses and our military - powerful because of our economy - has allowed us to defend our principals when we have had to. | ||
| Strawberry Supporter Username: Strawberry Post Number: 4388 Registered: 10-2001 |
Comparing America's future to Hitler's Germany is laughable. (and foolish) | ||
| Michael Janay Citizen Username: Childprotect Post Number: 1507 Registered: 1-2003 |
Pre WW2 Germany was Socialist. The Reich took over all german industry and business. Japan wasn't capitalist unil after US occupation. But Tjohn, I do agree with you that our military is powerful because of our economy. All I'm saying is that there is no one on the horizon that can competer with us. That doesn't mean to be complacent, but when real economic factors are analyzed, we're in great shape. Also, the world has more than enough room for several economic powerhouses... thanks to the spread of democracy and freedom, markets are opening up in places we'd never expext. We'll be the leader for the forseeable future, but there's nothing wrong with competition, in fact its preferable. I hope China really emerges as a powerhouse, it will keep us on our game. | ||
| tjohn Citizen Username: Tjohn Post Number: 2888 Registered: 12-2001 |
Germany was Socialist prior to WW2? Oh dear, I need to have a seance so I can infrom Krupp, Thyssen, Hoechst, Bayer, et al of this little detail. Germany was Social Democratic after WW I and prior to the Nazi seizure of power, but capitalism and private ownership were alive and well. | ||
| Bobkat Supporter Username: Bobk Post Number: 7403 Registered: 5-2001 |
We have, probably, but nobody least of all the CIA is sure, more nukes at present and better delivery vehicles. Twenty years from now China and India (both already nuclear powers) may well close the gap. We are, through really startling trade deficiets, financing the economic development of both those countries. | ||
| Strawberry Supporter Username: Strawberry Post Number: 4389 Registered: 10-2001 |
Don't question Tjohn's knowledge of Germany. His Grandfather died in a Concentration camp. He fell from a guard tower.  |
